Markets still in good shape for this year and S&P could reach $7,000 by year end, says Ed Yardeni

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2025년 S&P500은 주당순이익 285달러 기준 연말 7,000 도달 가능, 상승은 밸류에이션이 아닌 실적에 기반. 생산성 증가율이 0.5%에서 2%로 4배 상승했고 향후 2~3년 3%까지 전망. 단기(수주)는 거시·재정·관세 이슈로 변동성이 클 것이며 관세 불확실성이 해소되는 데 몇 주~몇 달 소요 예상. 금리 인하는 일시 정지 국면으로 보고 있음.

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01. joining us Ed no what about you Becky joining us now Ed yard Denny uh I don't hide anything Ed yard Denny I'm right right it's a desserts it's the uh absolutely it's the dessert it's the entree it's the salad wi is the market going to lose weight this year or you still like it no I still think the Market's in good shape um I'm very optimistic on the earnings Outlook because I'm optimistic on the outlook for the economy I think we're going to continue to see better than expected productivity growth and I'm actually using $285 a share for the S&P 500 this year how much well it's it's more than 15% yeah it's more than the other strategists and as a result I'm looking for the S&P 500 to go up along with earnings rather than valuation and I think it can get to 7,000 by the end of the year but it's not going to be a straight line and I would think that in the next few weeks things are going to be somewhat bumpy you like the economy because it's been going well do you like anything Trump's supposedly going to do are you worried about anything Trump's going to do well maybe uh I I've I've been sticking with a bullish view for a while you know for the past three years we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that didn't happen and it it it made sense to a lot of people that if interest rates are going to go up you get a recession we argued that that wouldn't be the case uh so the economy has proven to be remarkably resilient and now the fed's not raising interest rates they're talking about how much they're going to lower interest rates and the consumers are in great shape I'm still working for a living but a lot of my baby boom friends are retiring and they're sitting on like $75 trillion dollar of net worth uh is what the Baby Boomers have so they're going to have a negative savings rate and they're going to spend it uh no matter what actually they love higher interest rates because they get better Returns on their liquid assets AI factors into everything you're saying I guess well I've been talking about the Roaring 2020 since uh 2019 and uh of course I didn't know that AI was going to be the kind of hit that it's been so far uh but AI does factor in as as does robotics Automation and the whole idea is that like the 1920s we're seeing a productivity Le economic boom that increases standards of living inflation uh slowing economy neither well what is this Goldilocks everything's just right well I I you know Golding Goldilocks was kind of been there done it so I prefer roaring 2020s and the idea is productivity and productivity is like fery dust that makes everything better you get better than expected growth you get where's it coming from the the productivity is I think a couple of things one is there's a shortage of skill labor and there's a no shortage of new technologies software Hardware that can augment the productivity of workers and I think we're already seeing that I mean it's it's really not a forecast so much as just an EXT extrapolation of what's been going on since 2015 productivity growth has increased from 0.5% at an annual rate to 2% so it's quadrupled already but 2% is kind of the historical average we've been kind of doing uh lower than that and I think we're going to do 3% over the next couple of years why do you think we're going to have issues in the first few weeks of the Year well you know I think uh we always Focus uh on the macro on monetary and fiscal policies and with monetary policy you know you kind of need a neck brace to deal with what what uh they're signaling us uh maybe they should just stop talking and just you know just do what you're going to do and leave it at that uh but right now they've uh kind of semi- pivoted from uh very devish we're going to lower interest rates several times to well you know maybe we need a pause here so I think there's a pause in monetary policy so we're not going to feed the market at more rate Cuts right right away and then of course fiscal policy is very confusing we've got uh issues of IM immigration deportation we've got issues of tariffs which could be inflationary could hurt the economy whenever I talk about the roing 2020s people remind me yeah but the 1920s ended really badly and we're about to to see what impact tariffs are going to have in the economy so I'm not dism dismissing the possibility that things could go wrong uh but I I don't think this is going to be like the the end of the 1920s I think we'll get through this tariff mess and in some some form but I think it's going to take a few weeks here maybe several months to get a clear view of fiscal policy and we also have to get a clear view of you know whether this thin margin that the Administration has in Congress is is going to be enough to get their policies through