저자: Greg · 외국인
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엔비디아는 5월 실적 발표 후 주가가 100포인트 상승했고 3개월 만에 4배 올랐다. 화자는 2023년 11월 350달러대에 추천했으며 현재 약 1,000달러 수준이라고 언급. 엔비디아 사업은 게임 콘솔·AI 칩으로 시장을 창출해온 점이 강점. 다만 Fab 생산능력 한계와 고객사 주문 과잉(사재기 가능성)이 잠재 리스크로 제기됨. 화자는 올해 주가가 다시 두 배가 될 것이라고 전망하며 장기 투자 가치를 강조. 피터 린치 원칙상 이해 못 하는 기업 투자는 주의하라는 취지도 언급.
다듬은 글
thanks for joining us once again this is Greg for Tesla fan Insight we focused today on a company called Nvidia now as you know they just came out with earnings the stock price is up 100 points after those earnings so we were planning to do a pre- earnings you know report but the after earnings is I guess just as good because the company is doing so terrifically our Focus today is that well the folks in Nidia are enjoying a lot of success there's a Peter Lynch violation that I wanted to review today as part of the analysis on them so just a reminder please take time to like And subscribe also please join us on patreon if you enjoy the show for ideas on investing and trading for on companies for example like Nvidia so the first thing I want to establish is again congratulations Stock's up 100 points prior to earnings um it's an amazing situation for NVIDIA because as you know we recommended in Nvidia in November when the stock was at $350 a share it is now almost ,00 so again congratulations to those of you that are heavily in the stock I think it's awesome so the question mark is where do we go from here and so I actually have spent I got to um I got to know uh the Nvidia site um or company probably about 15 years ago and uh one of the only reasons I know anything about him is because it's the founder CEO uh got undergrad and Masters at Stanford and his company was funded by a number of VCS so I have had difficulty with Nvidia my aggressiveness about recommending them has been impacted by the fact that um you know every day if you see a Tesla on the road you're evaluating how the company's doing based on is the customer happy is the car working properly is on the side of the road there are all these bits of information that you pick up on a constant basis when you analyze certain companies and so my trend has been try to my Trend consistent with what Peter Lynch has recommended is that you kind of don't want to look at buying anything that you don't have working relationship with uh because bad things can happen when you don't know the products well and the company well Etc and I have to say I know about Nvidia I've seen them grow and grow and do very well under the CEO founder and they still obviously are doing great which is awesome the problem I have with them is that if you're not able to understand who their customers are and have a working relationship with the company it makes it hard to evaluate whether or not it's a great investment based on that now as you know one of the problems with evaluating Nvidia is they have there's something called a BC model which is business to a consumer and there's a B2B model which is a business to a business and in that case if you see the outcomes of their products in terms of things you're doing that you're using it you can go oh there was an Nvidia chip involved well in this case interestingly Nvidia and uh Tesla are I believe within five or six miles of each other the headquarters um Elon has been working with them in fact when Elon was at Chad GTP the first sort of major engine for the growth of Nvidia currently came from Nvidia and so that working relationship is really solid between the two CEOs the two companies Etc so the thing I learned about them with all the research I've been doing I wanted to ask you to take time to go to uh to just type in Nvidia and Stanford and we have several video videos of the CEO at the business school as well as in other places discussing how we put the company together the challenges they've had Etc please take time out I'm just going to give you a couple of real quick highlights the main thing that drove uh Nvidia existing as a company is when they started the gaming consoles that you see now were selling for a million dollars a copy and so their stated goal was to create a gaming console with $300 to $500 but would deliver the functionality of what had been a million dooll computer and I'm not a gaming Enthusiast so this is one of the reasons I feel like I'm at a disadvantage in terms of the command of the company so the core logic here on this was that what really got them going was they hooked up the company called Electronic Arts and because of the hookup between Electronic Arts and nvidia's uh Graphics chips driving those video games that was the initial successful Fortune for the company so what the CEO explained is that their number one goal is to identify products and markets identify products they want to build but in many cases they're not only inventing products but they're creating the market that they're going to be building into so in this case as an example that you can understand and that obviously I'm trying to understand um we're looking at the fact that um the the video game Market didn't exist as it is now until Nvidia was able to deliver chips that could allow video games uh consoles that would previously million dooll consoles to drop into 3 to 500 range and so that's one of the dominant markets that they're in they invented it so their chances of success be pretty good because they're porting technology into another space now the other thing that the CEO talked in this case is that the AI products that they're developing for example drug development is one of their largest customers I might use the drugs or have used the drugs that that were developed but not seen the relationship between how they use an Invidia system to help design that drug so one of the reasons why I chose the title here of is uh Nvidia a Peter Lynch violation and the reason is that if you're not um a professional in the drug development Zone there's a low chance that you're going to have any sort of exposure to that whole situation in between a drug a large drug maker and Nvidia and sort of be able to see the products in action before they get to the drug has been deed veloped and delivered what's interesting though so there are all these what I call vertical markets that Nvidia is in where they end up embedded below the obvious to support the success of those firms so another one that comes to mind currently is the relationship between uh Microsoft and the PC manufacturers nvidia's building AI Solutions on chips Etc and the uh beneficiary of that will be sort of a Reen energization of the whole world of PCS and so yes we might buy a PC but no we we weren't obvious to the fact that those PCS are switching to the AI chips that Nvidia makes so it's interesting because it is a pance violation because it's not like McDonald's you can't go to the mall and say that company is going to do better because instead of being in one city it's going to expand to 50 or 100 or a thousand or two million cities and so that makes it harder to evaluate well how is NVIDIA doing can they keep growing how do how do you intuitively determine whether or not it's a great investment and the issue is that somehow I really think it's worth the time to to look this over carefully the main reason is one thing that the CEO had a point about which was he said that for the last past let's say 50 years the computers have been primarily store something and then retrieve that information and use it in some way well we're in a new realm where in a lot of different ways it could be building software it could be building new drugs it could be a whole bunch of different applications there's a way in which this is being used and so what struck me and you guys have to look this up to confirm I said this one of their military customers said look when it comes to Nvidia we're increasing our order by a factor of 10 so we're ordering 10 times the amount of their chips versus what been using when I saw that I thought to myself there's something called cognitive dissonance so a company is tripling in size their revenue on a quarterly basis and then one of their largest customers says I'm increasing my order by 10x now what does that mean it really could be that they need 10 conects more of those chips or 10 times what it could also mean is one of the big things in the whole chip world is when they're shortages what people will actually do is start ordering double or triple what they need because they know that the seriousness of the volume that they're buying you know will click over in the brain of that company and they'll allocate more more to that company because they're anticipating better sales than expected and then what happens is they they cancel a certain portion of the orders and use what they really need this actually does happen I don't think it's going to be the case in the case of envidia there are two problems that I see with Nvidia that are lurking and it was articulated after earnings number one is there's only so much Fab space to create chips that drive everything they do and so once they've committed and it's typically a long-term commit to the growth of their production in this case like this um they're in a difficult position because customers may want more but they just can't deliver it not because they don't want to but because those are complex machines that require a number of chips and you have to get in line on that Fab in order to produce the chips necessary even if you've optimistically planned the growth So speaking of the whole idea of not getting you know the impact of AI what you'll notice on your computer is particularly on um what app but other entities you notice how you start typing saying something or might be an email and all of a sudden you notice you can complete the word by hitting the the uh space bar because the machine is anticipating you saying something and so that's kind of a use of at AI obviously chat GTP is one of the most popular and one of the most popular elements of chat cat GPT uh is college students who have to write papers and they just get cat GTP search the web write it for them and and hand that in and it's been a big problem for teachers in terms of how much those students are learning in the process so I bring this up to you because you may actually already be seeing the impact of machines that do AI that are in the realm of you know uh why Nvidia has been so successful but these are some iterations that are easy for you to touch or you already may be touching but may not realize that's an aid driven process that's going behind the scenes so I wanted to review all these with you because the stock is up very strong I mean four times the value of the stock in only three months is mind-blowing um I believe that yeah you know there's no doubt I think this thing is going to double again this year uh obviously adding another ion dollars in market cap in the process for a whole bunch of reasons but really what I wanted to bring up today is that I think there's a real need to allocate some time to really study how and why Nvidia is successful because I really think that it's a huge opportunity just like I did in November I understand them better now and I think it's a great investment you might want to put some time and understanding and getting a chance to listen to what the CEO asked to say that guy is totally amazing and this one uh video that's there is from the Stanford Business School I recommend that one and what was really fun to watch in the video is a student asked them a question about what the product pipeline looks like over time and you know what keeps you up at night and he just pointed out that looking out five or 10 years there's a number of there's competitors but there's a number of things that are going on as we transition into the Computing field future that does keep him him up at night and throughout the whole video really makes it clear that part of the reason he's successful is literally creating new markets that people didn't even know were out there that people are spending huge amounts of money on so I highly recommend you take the time out to look at this they're heavily involved with Tesla particularly when it comes to the the chips associated with um uh autonomous driving Etc is one of their key fores new markets that they help create so once again congratulations if you took my advice in November and you've made a bunch of money we look forward to keeping you up to speed on companies we think are powerful that are going to do great numbers there are other companies sort of that work as competitors or work with them obviously I recommend them as well I just happen to know this company better than the others because of trailing the CEO for a while any rate once again I want to thank you for joining us on our sort of highly recommend you spend some time climbing the learning curve on Nvidia because I think you'll be happy with what you learn and you'll be happy with the money you make so our final uh thing today is usually our health tips just a reminder uh I'm really getting into this 20-minute walk thing recommended by the psychiatrist uh who retired from Georgetown just wanted to highly recommend it to you once again also wanted to encourage you to don't forget your 25 leg lifs a day and um try the their pre-made salad that's Trader Dr and other places you can use but I also want to encourage you to try out the no meat every day of the week uh if you can make it there uh meat three times a week is a recommendation that one uh or or should say no meat three times a week is one of the recommendations made by one of our doctor uh folks anyway once again thanks for joining us this is Greg for tesan insect uh have a great day and thanks for joining us once again
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