저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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Fed 금리 인상 이후 경기침체 가능성을 강하게 경고한 인터뷰. 결론: 연준이 너무 공격적이며 2023년 경기침체 확률 75%로 본다. 연준 결정: 인플레이션 2% 목표에 대한 강한 의지 표명으로 매파적이라는 평가. 시장은 인플레이션이 빠르게 2%로 떨어질 것으로 가격에 반영 중이나 Gundlach는 이를 낙관적으로 봄. 채권시장 신호: 2년물 금리는 약 5bp 상승, 장기물은 약 8bp 하락해 수익률곡선이 역전. 2년-10년 약 50bp, 5년-3년 약 25bp 역전으로 경기침체 신호로 해석. 실업률 지표: 연준 전망대로 연말 실업률 4.4%에 도달하면 실업률이 12개월 이동평균을 상향 돌파하게 되어 경기침체 신호가 됨. 현재 실업률 3.7%, 12개월 이동평균 4.07%. 기타 경기 지표: 소비자심리 매우 약세, 선행경제지수는 12개월간 0.0 수준이고 3·6개월 수치는 강한 음수로 경기 악화 의미. 주식시장: 기자회견 중 증시가 반등한 것은 부적절하다고 평가하며, 위험자산 전반이 한동안 불리할 수 있다고 봄. 정치권 발언: 워런 상원의원의 '과도한 금리인상' 비판에 대해 Gundlach는 연준이 더 일찍 움직였어야 했지만 지금은 속도를 늦춰야 한다는 입장. 워런과 완전히 같은 수사는 아니라고 선을 그음. 향후 전망: 연준이 연내 추가로 약 125bp 인상해 4.25% 부근까지 올릴 것으로 보이나 이를 감당하기 어렵고, 경기 둔화 신호가 이미 나타나고 있어 2023년 경기침체 확률을 75%로 제시. 출연자 전망 요약: 경기침체 가능성 높음, 연준 긴축 속도 조절 필요, 위험자산 약세 우려.
다듬은 글
we get right to our talk of the tape today it is of course the fed decision of what it means to your money in the weeks and months ahead well let's ask our headline guest today jeffrey gundlach he is the ceo and cio of double line capital joins us once again in an overtime exclusive interview on a pivotal fed day jeffrey welcome back it's good to see you as always see you scott it's hard to believe that two months passed so quickly since we were on the last fed meeting and so many things happen your reaction to today's decision one in which our own steve liesman said the fed out hawked the hawks is that how you see it it's pretty hawkish i mean he started out just saying we're strongly committed to getting inflation to two percent that's pretty clear it's not a lot like jackson hole and then six minutes later he said the exact same words again and so it's he they're very aggressive uh the problem that they're going to have is that the inflation rate has gone up so much more than they expected and it's they're trying to get it to drop just as fast as it went up and the market pricing and the consensus of the macro economists say that they're going to succeed at getting the inflation rate down to two percent fairly quickly in fact the trajectory that's priced in the market for the decline inflation is actually slightly faster than the increase was from below two percent to nine point one on the cpi what's weird about the way the market and economists are thinking is they think that the inflation rate is going to go quickly down to two percent and then somehow magically just stop there and go dead sideways in fact the prediction of economists is going to go stay at two percent for a couple of years after that but the bond market uh is not really reacting to this these inflation numbers anymore at the long end in fact today's post powell bond market action is very recessionary looking we have that moment that i talked about in past appearances it's it's here now that moment where we have the fed raising rates and the short end reacts to it rates on the two-year treasury are up about five basis points today but the long end actually rallies the long-term rates are down eight basis points today and so now we've arrived at that moment of the yield curve that is truly flashing red for economic problems and of course jay paul acknowledged that that's the base case those those data points are a 50 basis point inversion from the two year to the five year start to the from the two years in tenure and a 25 basis point inversion from the five year to the third year these are really flashing recessionary signals jay powell said that the unemployment rate was probably going to go for the committee's uh expectations within the year at 4.4 percent well a very strong indicator of recession is when the unemployment rate crosses its 12-month moving average and the unemployment rate is a 3.7 and it's 12-month moving average is at 4.07 right now so if the fed is right and the unemployment rate rises to 4-4 by year-end that will be a corroborative indicator of recession consumer sentiment is very weak as well that looks recessionary and so there's there's a lot of things out there that and i'll just finish on one one more data point and that's the leading economic indicators which are at 0.0 for 12 months and strongly negative if you analyze the three and six month numbers so i read this as being recessionary i was surprised when the stock market uh actually rallied during the press conference i thought it was completely inappropriate i think risking assets broadly are sort of could be on the back feet for a while so there's a lot to unpack in in what you just said in a number of areas i'd like to go um you told me last week out in california that you worried the fed was in your words over steering that they should just do 25 well i mean obviously it appears that they're doing just the opposite of going 25 right that that they're in your territory of oversteering i'd like you to react to a tweet by senator elizabeth warren who called what chair powell did another extreme interest rate hike i've been warning that chair powell's fed would throw millions of americans out of work i fear he's already on the path to doing so um are you guys on the same page you and you and the senator he's he's doing too much in in your mind i i'm of the camp that the fed should have done more earlier but i think it was in april or may whenever it was that i actually sort of facetiously advocated because i knew it would never happen for a 200 basis point increase at that time and of course the fed has raised interest rates now fully now by 300 basis points and i think they should slow down because everyone knows the chairman said it soaked himself a couple of times and the presser the monetary policy has lags that are long and variable but we've been tightening now for a while and the impact of these tightenings is going to accumulate into a recession so i'm not sure i shared the same rhetoric as senator warren but i i do think the fed should have should be slowing down on these rate hikes i think what they've got uh on their predictions for the rest of the year going another what is it 125 basis points up to about four and a quarter percent i i think that is uh i'm i don't think they're going to be able to pull that off i think the economy is showing signs of weakening so i i do think the unemployment rate is going to go up and i do think we're headed to a recession and i i think the fed should have paced this differently but now they're so committed to this two percent that i think the odds of a recession in 2023 are very high i mean i would put them at 75 percent
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