저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
글로벌 중앙은행과 신흥국의 금 보유 확대로 금이 점진적으로 상승 중이라고 봄. 투자자 대부분이 금 비중이 거의 없어 수요 전환 여지가 있다고 주장. 부유층은 시스템 위기 대비로 물리적 금·은·백금을 5~10% 보유할 것으로 전망. 금광주는 과거 강세장보다 금속 대비 덜 올랐으나 향후 따라잡을 수 있다고 봄. 주식시장이 꺾이고 있어 경기가 이미 침체 국면일 수 있다고 주장. 인플레 고착 속 연준 대응 문제를 제기.
다듬은 글
And so these countries like China and India and Russia and Cuba and so of course they will keep more reserves in gold than everything in dollars. This is the reason gold is sort of moving up or creeping up. Now, I'm not saying that there won't be a correction in gold, but there has been a steady flow of money out of the gold market or from people who say gold is overbought and too high and so worse.
It is relatively high compared to say the price of wheat or soybeans and so forth, but it's not that high compared to all the monetary assets. They go and ask your friends, go to the pub and ask your friends, have you heard about gold? And they say most people will say, yes, gold is going up. And then they will say, well, I have some gold.
The wife will say, usually the wife say, we have some gold. Then you ask specifically, well, how much gold do you have? And then they will tell you, well, a few coins. But who has 20% or 30% or 40% of his assets in gold, silver, and platinum? Hardly anyone. We have some gold. When the wives of people say that they mean they have a gold watch or they have a few coins, but very few people if they have say $20 million would have say $6 million or $10 million in gold.
Very few. Or take a billionaire. He has a thousand million dollars or hundred million dollars. How much gold does he have? Maybe one million in gold. Nothing. The portfolio managers 70% have less than 1% in gold. I'm just saying, you know, we don't know what the value of gold is precisely. But all I can say if I look at the investment community and I have a lot of clients and I know a lot of people and so forth.
Most of them have no gold. Most of them have no gold. Nothing. So that leads me to ask then will there be a switch with the general investment community and the portfolio managers? Will they switch to allocate more money to gold in your opinion? And will that would if they do if and when they do that would further drive up the price almost exponentially.
Is that your opinion? I'm I'm not sure it will drive the price exponentially higher, but I can assure you that 95% of fund managers, especially because the fund managers nowadays are mostly young people. Nothing against young people. They have also their qualities and they may have performed well but I'm saying especially young people would have practically no globe exposure practically no because they were all in spaxs in meme stocks and uh lately in the magnificent seven stocks and so forth in Nvidia and Tesla uh they don't own companies like Newmont Mining and Bar and those.
Yeah. So my next question really then is the mining stocks like Newmont and Barrack they really come to life or they've seemed to come alive in to life in the past uh really since January mid to late January. Um and the S&P the broader market is it looks like it's breaking down or it's rolling over.
What's your opinion on that? Meaning why is that? And it looks like do you think that the mining stocks will continually take catch a bit up um if we have a rollover in the broader market? Well, this is the first bull market in gold where actually the physical has outperformed say gold stocks. Now lately it's improved.
Say gold is up this year by about 10% or so year today. And the gold stocks have rallied a bit more. The G digs the gold mining ETF. But by and large gold stocks in past uh bull markets have rallied significantly more than the metal. this hasn't happened yet and I don't have the full explanation but I can see why this is the case let's say if I have money and I have lots of money say 100 million or a billion what is my concern my concern would be the financial system will it stay alive I mean we all know the way it is now with all the deficits in the world with all the debt accumulation is not going to survive forever.
something some sort of a crisis will occur and then if you're wealthy you have a 100 million or a billion you say so so if there is a crisis in the financial system systematic crisis how do I protect some of my reserves and you say to yourself in the case of such a crisis is what I want to have is some physical commodity that can be easily stored and say hidden.
So you buy gold and silver and platinum and you buy it in physical form because the physical yes they can take it away from you but it's a question of how easy is it for a government to take everything away from you if they don't know where you keep it and that you have it. I mean, you just can't go at cocktail parties and say, "Oh, I buried it in my garden of three tons of gold because if a tax officer is there at party, he will react to it." But this is the way essentially some wealthy people think.
They they are very wealthy on paper but it's paper and they are worried about the paper the system and if the system breaks what do you want how do you want to protect some of your wealths you can protect it in your house but the house is visible to government officials they can tax it away from you property taxes and uh and then you Look, they they can make it difficult to own anything, but I'd say wealthy people, they probably have 5 to 10% of the money in uh physical gold eventually.
They don't have it yet, but when they really think about it, they will have. Yeah. Um, let me pivot a little. It's actually funny. You know because in the 70s when I started to work I started to work in 1970 the saying was you put over portfolio 10% in gold and gold shares 10%. That was kind of the accepted norm.
But recently, I never heard that a portfolio should be even 5% in gold. But I've heard a lot about bitcoins and you know other cryptos. Yeah, I think that's going to change. I think there will be a shift to physical. Yes. Yes. I I agree. Yeah. So um the the stock market it looks like it's rolling over um and it looks like things are slowing down.
Would you say that is um is it foreseeing a possible recession or are we already in recession? And then it leads me to that question the question of what is the Fed going to do? because inflation's already high but you have a slowing economy. What are they going to do? So those are two questions there.
Well, uh, my view has been that about since last summer, the economy is actually in recession already because as you know, the the government they calculate GDP and it's gross and then they take into account that consumer prices go up. Consumer prices are for goods like cars and so forth and for services like travel expenditures, hotels and so forth and so on, insurance premiums at our services and then they take the rate of growth of the GDP and adjust it for the so-called consumer price index or personal consumption expenditures.
And then they come out with a figure that show say 2% grows or 3% or 1%. But you can see right away that the
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