저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 미국 주식시장이 닷컴버블·주택버블 같은 거품 상태에 있을 수 있다고 주장한다. Jeremy Grantham은 미국 주식이 과대평가됐고 시장이 최대 60% 폭락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 근거로 쉴러 PE 비율이 1929년 붕괴 직전보다 높다는 점과 미국 기업의 비정상적으로 높은 이익률이 평균으로 회귀할 것이라는 점을 든다. 대안으로 미국 외 주식을 상대적 피난처로 제시하지만 환율·정치 리스크도 언급한다. 영상은 투자 판단은 시청자 몫이라고 덧붙인다.
다듬은 글
did you ever stop to consider the risks lurking in the current stock market in the world of Investments it's easy to be swept away by the Allure of high returns but let's not forget that the stock market is a game of speculation where fortunes can be made or lost in the blink of an eye it's a playing field that's as unpredictable as the weather where even the most experienced investors can be caught off guard Market risk the possibility that the overall Market will go down is an inherent part of invest one day you're riding high on a bull market and the next you're caught in the Whirlwind of a bare market now consider this what if the market isn't just going through a routine cycle what if we're on the brink of a major downturn as history has shown us the stock market is not always as stable as it appears let's take a trip down memory lane shall we remember the dotom bubble the housing bubble to understand the current market situation it's helpful to look back at historical bubbles a bubble in economic terms is a situation where theice price of an asset exceeds its intrinsic value by a significant margin often due to excessive demand speculation or exuberant behavior let's take the dot bubble of the late '90s as an example this was a period when internet-based companies the so-called Dooms were the latest rage in the stock market their stocks were skyrocketing even though most of these companies were not profitable the bubble grew bigger and bigger fueled by the belief that the internet was the future and these companies would soon start making huge profits but eventually reality set in many of these companies went bankrupt and the bubble burst leading to a significant market downturn then there was the housing bubble of the mid 2000s housing prices were soaring again not because of Any intrinsic value in the houses but because of speculation and the belief that housing prices would continue to rise indefinitely when the bubble burst it led to the Great Recession one of the worst economic downturns in recent history in both these cases the aftermath of the bubble bursting was severe the bigger and broader the bubble the longer and more painful the aftermath investors lost huge amounts of money people lost their jobs and the economy took a long time to recover so why are we talking about this now well some experts like Jeremy Grantham believe that we are currently in a bubble the US Stock Market they argue is significantly overpriced and if they're right and the bubble burst s the aftermath could be as bad if not worse than the crash or the housing crash and as history repeats itself we might be on the brink of another bubble Jeremy Grantham a renowned investor has sounded the alarm a notable figure in the financial World Grantham has built a reputation for spotting market bubbles before they burst this time he's warning us about the US Stock Market according to him it's not just overpriced it's significantly overpriced Grandam sees signs of a bubble that's not just big but broad as well a kind of bubble that when it bursts could lead to a downturn that's not just long but painful too a downturn that in his view could see the market Collapse by as much as 60% that's a drop that would make it the worst market crash since the Great Depression to understand why Grantham is so concerned let's look at one of the tools he uses to evaluate Market valuations the Schiller PE ratio this metric is currently indicating that the US Stock Market is overvalued not just a little overvalued but more overvalued than it was before the 1929 crash Grantham points out another worrying Trend the unusually high profit margins of us companies these profit margins in his view are unsustainable when they inevitably revert to more normal levels the market could experience a severe downturn a downturn that could be even more painful because of the inflated prices of us assets grantham's not just sounding the alarm he's also offering a possible solution he suggests that investors might find safer Havens in non- US equities these haven't experienced the same level of price inflation as us assets which might make them a safer bet in the event of a market crash grantham's warning is clear the current market situation is unsustainable it's a warning that should give all of us pause whether you're an investor a business owner or just someone concerned about the future of the economy it's worth taking the time to understand what Grantham is saying and consider what it might mean for you so what does Grantham suggest we do in the face of this impending collapse you might be wondering well the seasoned investor has some advice for those who are willing to listen Grantham believes that looking beyond the borders of the United States may be a wise decision He suggests that investors consider non- us equities as a potential Shelter From The Storm the rationale behind this advice is based on the observation that these markets have not experienced the same level of price inflation as us assets in other words they're not as overpriced according to Grantham but why might this be a better option well when a bubble bursts as Grantham is predicting the assets that are most inflated tend to suffer the most as we've mentioned the US Stock Market appears at least by some measures to be significantly overvalued this could mean that US stocks are at a higher risk of a significant price drop if a market crash occurs on the other hand non- us equities having not been subject to the same degree of price inflation may be less vulnerable in the face of a market downturn this doesn't mean they're immune to a crash of course but they could potentially offer a safer Haven for investors looking to protect their assets however it's important to note that investing in non- US equities comes with its own set of risks currency fluctuations political instability and differing economic factors are just a few examples of the considerations that need to be taken into account so while grantham's advice may be worth considering it's crucial to do your own research and consult with a financial adviser before making any significant investment decisions in the end the choice is yours but remember informed decisions are always the best decisions
Comments 0