저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 불러드의 테일러 준칙 발언으로 시장이 하락. 테일러 준칙상 정책금리가 5%~7%까지 갈 수 있다는 범위가 제시됐고 시장은 하단(약 5%)만 반영 중. 진행자는 테일러 준칙이 편향(고금리 편향)되어 있고 고령화·세계화·생산성으로 장기 저금리 가능성이 80~90%라고 봄. 연준은 긴축 금융여건을 원해 시장을 압박하는 것으로 해석. 부동산은 고금리 장기화 시 타격 우려.
다듬은 글
well the FED is back at it again talking down the stock market all stock indices ran across the board today and bond yields actually going up indicating selling in the bond market suggesting that some are going uh oh maybe the FED is going to go a lot further than we think now let's break down the comments that happened this morning and try to put them into context so first contacts the last summary of economic projections from the FED suggested the FED would raise rates to a peak of 4.6 percent since then we've got a pretty bad inflation report uh in in October that was followed by a pretty good inflation report here in November but that bad one in October based on CPI numbers from September led the fomc projected terminal rate to move up right now we sit just below five percent that's kind of where we think the fed's gonna go so we got a peek out at five percent stay there for a while well today we got Mr Bullard who really really threw a curveball to markets and I want to talk about whether we actually want to heed that warning or if they're trying to accomplish something else Mr Bullard this morning suggested the following we need to get to a sufficiently restrictive zone of interest rates and significantly restrictive is something that's Up For Debate but he gave a range using the Taylor rule as a guide and I going to break down the Taylor rule in just a moment so if you're confused by the TR the Taylor rule don't worry about it what you want to pay attention to is here it suggests the recommended federal reserve's policy rate that's the fomc terminal rate right which which is currently still got about a percent to go before we get to sort of the peak levels we'll see but based on the recommendations created by the Taylor rule we have a generous tale tailor rule calculation because you could change some coefficients in the formula I'll show you how that works and then we have a less generous one in English this scenario says inflation will be lower this scenario says inflation will be higher and as a result you get this chart it shows that presently we are here on this little blue line and the generous version version here suggests that the fed's policy rate needs to go to five percent well that's what markets are currently anticipating is that we need to go to about five percent but look at the less generous version it goes all the way up to seven percent and the fact that what the market is pricing in right now is literally the bottom edge of this entire range scared the hell out of markets today this was bad now let's understand the Taylor Rule and then put into context what the FED is trying to accomplish so the Taylor rule was created by this guy John Taylor from uh Stanford and there are many different formulas for it I'm going to use a simplified version just because every single one of these pieces here can have coefficients that get changed based on certain inputs so you could really manipulate this formula pretty pretty intensely but what I'm going to do is I want to show you the bias that this formula has and then I'll tell you a little bit about the Stanford guy and kind of where his head has been so the way this works is you have this formula here I'm not going to even bother reading it to you because half are you going to click off the only formula you need to know right now is whatever the price is of you could take 60 off using the Black Friday coupon code if you join Elite Hustlers you get access to both exclusive live stream sets the exclusive uh Elite Hustlers live stream set the new lectures that come out every day the market is open and the regular course member live streams which after Black Friday will be exclusive for uh for just course members of real estate and stocks and psychology money in those courses anyway so not without reading you that formula here's how it works the Taylor rule tells you that whatever rate the Federal Reserve chooses should be determined by the rate of inflation this makes sense the FED uses pce not CPI that's why it's lower and I already filled it in and then you should add to what the inflation rate is basically how much real GDP has deviated from where it currently is so in other words if you want GDP to be at one percent or let me say you want it to be at two percent and you're at one percent you've got about a 50 deviation there that would add another quarter of a basis point here is what you would add just a rough example and you can manipulate these coefficients as well that's why this formula gets really complicated but I'm going to keep it simple and then over here you take another half times the inflation rate minus two and then you add two okay very very simply put the bias of this rule even if you missed all of that the bias of this rule is the fomc rate should be higher let me prove that to you watch this we're going to do something really simple here we're going to take a blue pencil here we're going to say the deviation of GDP is zero we're right where we want to be okay great well that cancels out the middle part of the formula right let's say that inflation is zero okay well that cancels out the left part of the formula if inflation is zero then this right here is going to be one and that's because you take the inflation rate plus two which if inflation is zero would just be the plus two multiplied by 0.5 that'd be one plus another 2 over here that would be a total of three so if GDP is right where we want it and inflation is zero the Taylor rule says the the the fomc rate should be three percent now why is that important well it's important because if inflation is zero and GDP is On Target why would we need a three percent fed funds rate this rule was created back in 1993 and it was created by somebody who was very upset starting in 2005 for about the next actually probably starting in 2003 for about the next 12 years all the way through 2015 he was regularly complaining that the federal reserve's rates were too low in my opinion this individual and his formula have a bias for a substantially higher fomc rate than we're actually likely to see in the future now this really gets down to your personal belief your personal belief you have to ask yourself do you think that if we removed the the pandemic and all of the money printing that happened in the economy do you believe it would make sense for the federal funds rate to be back to two percent maybe two and a half percent where it was in 2019 we were actually hiking from about one and a half to two and a half percent remember Donald Trump was threatening to fire Jerome Powell right do you believe we should be back at those levels or do you think we should follow the Taylor Rule and if inflation was in theory zero and GDP was fine which we did have a little bit of inflation then which would just mean to be even higher should the fomc rate be three or four percent see I think Mr Taylor and his rule are kind of stuck in the 90s and the early 2000s personally I think that we have moved into a regime where we we've come to expect lower interest rates over the long term and if you believe we're going to return to lower interest rates over the long term and if you kind of scale out over the past 500 years of interest rates which is quite interesting if you do that there are plenty of charts of this online but let me just basically give you the bottom line of what you would see if you look at interest rates throughout history they've basically just done this oh what drives interest rates down throughout history well generally low inflation so if you believe we're going to return to low inflation you would expect rates to be lower probably than what John John Taylor calls for and low inflation is generally caused by an aging population that spends less remember the velocity of money one person spends a dollar it creates four dollars in the economy but when you get older you start spending less not more because you make class you have left less left over people keep thinking oh when I retire I'm going to be able to spend money like crazy wrong you generally live off the whatever you've you've been able to Nest Egg essentially and then you get really worried about like not having enough and then having to go back to work right so you tend to spend less so aging drives a lower inflation globalism provides lower inflation because people who are working for three dollars an hour in in you know Caribbean islands or in South America uh start doing work that's worth twenty dollars an hour in America through you know Zoom or technology or the cloud Photoshop programming whatever right and all of a sudden it's like okay well pay the person who's making three dollars ten dollars and you're still saving ten dollars as a company on hiring an American right globalist and I'm not saying that's what you should do I'm just saying that's what drives other people's wages up but actually drives Global wages down and that's disinflationary especially for modern economies uh so globalism productivity and innovation of course when it becomes cheaper to have more iPhones or more iPads or whatever what ends up happening well you become more productive because you have tools that make you more productive we've got plenty tools that make us productive and they allow us to for example be on a cruise ship and actually still upload videos to YouTube to share education that's what I'm all about is sharing education of course you could always learn more about my education if you like my perspective getting before Black Friday it's going to be the best pricing uh we we always have pricing that Trends up and so you get in now you can have the best pricing but this is this is one of the largest coupons we've ever done so what does this mean well it potentially means in my opinion that John Taylor is a little too aggressive here why then would James Bullard of the FED talk about Mr Taylor and the Taylor rule well for a couple reasons one the Taylor rule has the biggest concern over what's known as the wage price spiral and that's the risk that ultimately people keep demanding more pay because prices are going up fortunately the risk of that is becoming less severe it was starting to get quite concerning at the beginning of 2022 which was the biggest reason I sold stocks that risk has mostly moderated but it's still a present risk so what happens when or why then if the risk of a wage price spiral is is limited uh although it is still present why then is James Ballard Hawking why is he talking like the FED might actually raise rates to seven percent to kill inflation well the reason in my opinion he's doing this is because the FED has a very important job and it is driving this chart down sorry not Tesla chart it's doing that too it's doing that to a lot of growth and cyclical stocks this particular chart is a chart of the five-year Break Even rate of inflation if you've been watching this channel you've seen me watch this pretty closely it was doing great all the way up to about October and that's where the FED lost it where all of a sudden this darn chart starts exploding and it really took the last fomc meeting for Jerome Powell remember when that reporter asked the stupid questions like hey the market seems to be going up it was going down and then Jerome Powell just lets it rip and talks about all the reasons why the fat has to work harder and raise rates more the FED wants Finance conditions to be tight that's what we learn almost every day from Nikki leaks they want tight Financial conditions they want layoffs they would never politically say that but let's be real that's what they want they want layoffs they want lower risk of a wage price spiral when you lay a lot of people off what signal does that send to employees it sends a signal that oh crap I better not quit or get fired because I might have a hard time finding a job somewhere else where and that's very different from the mentality of oh fire me I don't need to be productive here I'll go get another job that'll pay me more you know that's kind of like what you had in 2021 was this this belief that you can't get hurt uh and boy I've have those things changed but take a look at this because of the Federal Reserves yapping and that weaker inflation report that we just got in November we've actually thankfully seen a really nice relaxation of this curve this is very important but this is what the FED is doing you can see that inflection point right here would actually steeping down the FED will do whatever they need to do you to come out and publicly talk inflation down and they want this break even curve to be even lower than this point where it was over in September because if you go five years back that point was just as high as what it was in 2019 when they were hiking so you have a Fed who has a job and their job is to basically until we get multiple reports on a roast showing that inflation is is going down they are just going to come out day after day after day after day and they're going to talk the market tight that's what they want they're always going to look for the bad news oh that's just one good report and then as soon as two good reports come out like CPI and PBI well you know two reports isn't the start of a trend and I guarantee you when Bullard came out this morning okay I can't guarantee this but I can only guarantee a 60 off coupon code well I guarantee again I hashtag don't guarantee but I almost guarantee you that after Bola talked markets read this morning Jerome Powell on them were like heck yeah bro you did it you crash Mark it's a good thing we sold out right before we started tightening huh all under the guise of uh yeah let's uh just get out of the market so we're not biased yeah not not shady at all uh anyway there you have it so what's going on with the fed's great reset trajectory well ultimately it comes down to what actually happens with the data but in terms of your investing and positioning you have to ask yourself what's more likely are we going to go back to a low inflationary regime modern monetary Theory zero or negative interest rates I would say that's probably 80 to 90 likely we can disagree about that of course the whole point of sharing perspective is not that you become a zealot and listen and agree with everything I say right uh and and I think there's maybe a 20 chance that we end up going into a direction of consistently higher levels of federal funds rates that maybe four or five percent just becomes the new normal and we just sit here for years that's going to be devastating for Real Estate like really devastating for Real Estate it's one thing if we go back to zerp the zero interest rates real estate will be fine it'll rebound so quickly but if you're looking for more affordable real estate unfortunately there's no right answer for you because as fomc rates stay high mortgage rates Stay High so it doesn't again even though prices might come down it doesn't really increase your affordability which is pretty terrible uh you would need a substantially massive correction uh anyway so that gives you some insight thank you for watching subscribe and we'll see in the next one good luck everybody bye
댓글 0