저자: 주출연자 · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 유전체(게놈) 산업이 테슬라보다 큰 상승 여력이 있다고 보며, 발행자는 ARKG 관련 투자 기회에 긍정적이나 투자 권유는 아니라고 밝힘. [캐시 우드 주장 및 근거] - 유전체 산업이 향후 5년간 크게 성장할 것으로 전망(인용 발언: 테슬라보다 큰 상승 서프라이즈 가능) - DNA 시퀀싱, AI, 유전자 치료(특히 CRISPR 유전자 편집)의 융합이 질병 치료로 이어질 것이라 주장 - 당뇨 등 대형 의료지출 분야 겨냥 [긴 읽기(long read) 시퀀싱 전망] - ARK는 2020년 2.5억 달러 → 2025년 약 50억 달러로 연 82% 성장 전망 - 와이트 법칙(누적 생산량 두 배마다 원가 일정 비율 하락)에 따라 2023년경 1,000달러 이하 가격 전망 - 장점: 정확도는 낮지만 게놈 완전성이 높음 [액체생검/다중암 검사] - 검사 비용 3만 달러(2015) → 1,500달러(현재) → 2025년 250달러 전망 - 미국 시장 규모 1,500억 달러, 연간 최대 6.6만 명 생명 구함 가능성 언급 [유전자 치료] - FDA 승인 유전자 치료 10개 → 향후 10년 내 170개 가능성(17배) [언급 종목] - CRISPR Therapeutics: 긍정(상승 기대, 이미 큰 상승 언급) - Pacific Biosciences: 긍정(ARKG 3위 보유, 매출 성장 기대) - ARKG ETF: 긍정(권유 아님, 10~15년 장기 관점) - 테슬라: 언급되나 과거 성과 중심, 상대적 열위 시사 [리스크/조건] - 발행자는 투자 조언 아님을 명시; ETF 장기 성과 한계 언급 - 영상 시점(2021년 1월) 기준 과거 실적 및 전망으로, 현재 시점 검증 필요 [출연자 전망] - 캐시 우드: 유전체 섹터 강세 전망 및 ARK의 혁신 투자 성과 신뢰 - 발행자: 게놈 혁명에 공감, 10~15년 장기 관점 긍정
다듬은 글
we believe that number is going to go to a hundred so that's almost a 40-fold increase in the next five years kathy woods is the ceo of arc invest she's most notably known for her bullish prediction with tesla stock she's also invested well in square roku and crispr therapeutics in 2020 resulting in 150 percent gain in her innovation etf just that year this has led a lot of attention into arc invest and their disruptive innovation strategies most people including myself have watched tesla skyrocket over the past few months and want to know what the next big disruptive innovation opportunity is well guys and girls i've been doing a lot of research and i think i found this next opportunity kathy also believes that this industry is going to provide more good than even apple does apple is a trillion dollar market cap company and it's changed our lives and we love our apple phones and air pods and watches but the apple is not curing cancer it's not curing disease these companies we believe will now what kathy is talking about and what we are going to be talking about in this video is genomics now in an interview with bloomberg kathy had this to say tesla's still in the running but i would have to say the biggest upside surprises are going to come from the genomic space and that's because the convergence of dna sequencing artificial intelligence and gene therapies importantly crispr gene editing are going to cure disease that convergence is going to cure disease now we have real science and technology surfacing the mutations in our genomic profile and and as they surface those mutations what do we see we see the earliest manifestations of disease and now with the combination of artificial intelligence and gene editing we're able to both anticipate diseases and cure them potentially beta thalassemia we're seeing it sickle cell disease we even think it will work in uh diabetes which is where most the if you look at the largest category of spending uh year-to-year in healthcare it's diabetes now the first thing they need to know is a genome is an organism's complete set of dna which includes all of its genes now genomics focuses on the structure function evolution mapping and editing of genomes now an easy way to think about this is to imagine a puzzle and the puzzle pieces are your genomes what mapping does is it tells you where the puzzle pieces go and how they fit together and what editing would do in genomics would be if your puzzle pieces weren't fit right they would cut the pieces up they would morph them together and make sure they fit so if your body was just a giant puzzle then genomics would be figuring out that puzzle now what kathy talks about a lot is the mainstreaming of gene editing which would be huge for the medical field and for people with genetic diseases and disorders and she gives an example of this right here in this clip one of the first one being pediatric blindness a baby born blind you correct that programming error the baby can see it works in mice it works in non-human primates if it works in human beings think about how how what the reaction will be well we'd prefer to be in the stocks before that reaction now kathy and arc invest early exposure into the genomic sector has paid off really well as you can see on the chart here back at the bottom of the pandemic and the market crash arcg was sitting around twenty five dollars a share and now it is currently up over a hundred dollars a share now kathy and arc invest are up to something special how special well i'm going to talk about their predictions that they just released in their new big ideas research report and i'm also going to show you guys why i think genomics is huge for the future now first i want to talk about a huge breakthrough that happened with one of arcgi's major holdings crispr therapeutics now crispr therapeutics uses their cast 9 gene editing platform in order to make precise and directed changes to genomic dna now what crispr's done that's so fascinating is they actually did a gene editing experiment on this woman named victoria gray now victoria suffers from sickle cell anemia where your red blood cells are crescent shaped and she said this causes pain around all of her body now what doctors did is they removed bone marrow from her cells and edited a gene inside with crispr cast 9 which hopefully would produce a protein that could alleviate the complications of sickle cell anemia now since then it said that she's been doing super well but we're going to have to continue to wait and see if there are any complications down the road now there's either long read or short read sequencing and archinvest believes long read sequencing will grow at an annual rate of 82 percent from 250 million in 2020 to roughly 5 billion in 2025.
so one reason why ark believes that this is going to improve significantly is because one the reduction in price so arc believes in something called wright's law which it states for every cumulative doubling of units produced costs will fall by a constant percentage now they believe this will be the case with long reach sequencing as you can see by this graph they think it'll be sub 1 000 by 2023 now this goes hand in hand with another reason why ark is so bullish is that they believe long read sequencing is more efficient as you can see from the graph short read sequencing provides more base accuracy but less completeness and long read sequencing provides less accuracy but more completeness of the genome now arc believes with the decrease in price of long read sequencing this is going to effectively have companies and people choose long read sequencing over short read sequencing if their prices are equivalent now this is going to benefit a company called pacific biosciences which is actually the third top holding in the arcg etf now pacific biosciences is up a significant amount this year but if we can see an 82 revenue increase year over year with this company i can imagine that this stock is going to continue to skyrocket which in turn is going to skyrocket rg now this next part right here is extremely important for investors and human life in general now liquid biopsies is a blood sample test that is extremely important to help monitor and track cancers early now arc believes due to innovative technologies that push the cost of multi-cancer screening from thirty thousand dollars in 2015 to only fifteen hundred dollars today and they believe that it can go to two hundred fifty dollars in 2025.
now arc also believes the multi-cancer screening market should scale to 150 billion dollars in the united states and it could potentially save up to 66 000 lives per year now if arc is right about this that would be a scientific breakthrough and just incredible for the human race gene therapy and editing trials have increased to fivefold since 2010 and there's only 10 fda approved gene therapies right now but arc believes 170 gene therapies are likely to be approved within the next 10 years so that is a 17 times increase now when it comes to disruptive innovation arc has been on a roll and they've almost never been wrong 3d printing artificial intelligence electric vehicles financial tech and even genomics and dna sequencing they've produced massive gains for their investors in 2020 and i do believe they're going to repeat that in 2021.
now of course this is not investment advice i am just presenting you guys some big opportunities now if you want to diversify your portfolio and you are not sure which genomics company you should be investing in then i would definitely go with arcg it's an actively managed fund by arc invest and they are updated selling trimming buying positions every single day now as the intelligent investors that we are we know that historically etfs cannot perform this well over a long period of time but personally i do believe in the genomic sector within the next 10 to 15 years and i do believe in kathy wood and arc invest now let me know what you guys think about this genomic revolution do you think it's as big as archinvest thinks do you think the revenue is going to increase by 82 for long read sequencing over the next five years because if it does that is a huge investing opportunity let me know your thoughts down below because i am new to genomics i've been researching as much as i can but of course there's a lot of stuff that i don't know so i'd love to talk about it with you guys in the comments of course if you did like this video and you want to see more make sure you subscribe we are on the road to a thousand subscribers other than that i will see you guys in the next one
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