Peter Schiff and Jim Richards DEBATE Gold and Asset Prices

요약 보기

2021년 4월 토론 영상으로, 코로나 위기 속 연준의 통화정책과 인플레이션 개념을 두고 두 출연자가 논쟁한다. 단, 자막에 자산별 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측(목표가·기간)은 거의 없어 종목·지수 예측은 추출되지 않았다. 주제 1: 위험 진단 - 현재 팬데믹과 1930년대급 경기침체 우려가 제기되며, 연준의 역사적 규모 통화부양이 나온 상황이다. - Rickards는 '통화부양'이 아니라 '돈 찍기(머니 프린팅)'와 부채 화폐화일 뿐이라고 비판하며, 가장 큰 위협은 디플레이션이라고 본다. 주제 2: Schiff의 인플레이션·달러 붕괴 전망 - Schiff는 법정화폐 기준 물가는 급등할 것이며, 달러가 가치를 잃을 때까지 정부가 계속 찍을 것이라고 본다. - 디플레이션은 금으로만 측정될 것이라는 견해다. - 달러 붕괴 시 현금성 지원금과 복지급여의 실질 가치가 떨어지고, 정부가 물가통제를 도입해 1970년대식 품귀·장기 줄서기·전력 배급이 나타날 것이라고 경고한다. 도시 범죄·폭동 위험도 언급했다. - 이는 미국 달러 및 국채 위기로 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 주제 3: 인플레이션 정의 논쟁 - Rickards는 연준이 인플레이션을 만들 수는 있으나 CPI·PCE로 보면 물가 상승은 제한적이었다고 본다. - 자산가격(주식·부동산·채권) 거품은 크게 부풀었고, 그 결과 경제가 왜곡되었다고 주장한다. - Schiff는 인플레이션의 정의는 통화량 팽창이며, 물가 상승은 그 결과라고 반박한다. 중앙은행이 물가로 정의를 바꿔 책임을 민간에 떠넘긴다고 비판한다. - 두 사람은 정의를 두고 평행선을 달렸고, 결론은 나지 않았다. 출연자 전망: Schiff는 강한 인플레이션과 달러 위기, Rickards는 디플레이션 위험을 중시한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right we have a few minutes left so i have one last question for the both of you what are the major risks that you're looking out for today we're already living through the worst pandemic in recent history we're seeing a recession that some analysts would say is even worse than the great depression of the 1930s and in response we're seeing monetary stimulus on a historic level jim let's start with you how could things possibly get worse from here well first of all i encourage everyone to stop using the word monetary stimulus there is no monetary stimulus there is money printing yes there is money printing and debt monetization but it has no stimulative effect you don't get inflation from printing money you get it from velocity which is psychological which the fed doesn't understand but the biggest threat is deflation peter you thought you argued that we could see inflation as a tax so uh how would you respond to that well first of all the only thing you're going to see deflation measured in is gold but in terms of fiat currency prices are going to go up dramatically because they will continue to print the dollar uh in in until until it no longer has value that's the only thing that's going to stop it but look what we've seen so far uh you know even with the civil unrest and the riots and the looting this is just a small dress rehearsal for what's coming because when the dollar crashes you know and and and prices skyrocket right these stimulus checks you know or that you know whatever welfare benefits the government wants to dispense they're not going to be worth very much i mean you're just you're not going to buy anything and i think the government is going to respond to the surge in consumer prices uh with price controls kind of the way we did in the 1970s but prices are going to be rising much faster now than they did back then but i think there's going to be controls on all sorts of consumer goods and that means shortages that means long lines and i think there's going to be power rationing and so i think you're going to see a real blow up particularly in in the cities there's going to be a lot of crime a lot of violence associated with widespread shortages and a lack of food and power outages so things are going to get pretty bad as we go through a a monetary crisis it's not you know this is not just a financial crisis this is a u.s dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis that's a whole other ball game jim i'll let you respond and close the argument yeah well i agree with peter that the fed wants inflation but they don't know how to get it and they haven't for the last 12 years well that's the one thing they do know how to do they can cause inflation that's all they can do they can print money they can't they can't pay they printed seven trillion dollars in 12 years and we got no inflation assets yes but i'm talking about i mean prices are higher than they were seven years ago consumer prices but we inflated a stock market bubble we inflated a real estate bubble we inflated a bond market i mean asset prices went way up uh we distorted the economy based on all that inflation and look consumer prices have risen right i mean i don't care the way the government wants to keep track of them with their you know with the cpi the cpi is not an accurate reflection of what's actually happening with consumer prices it's uh it's pretty good look if you want to count assets you're you're right but you're changing the it's moving the goal post you're changing the definition no if you count assets yet if you can't assets yes but i count consumer prices or pc core deflator because that's how if you want to predict fed policy that's what they look at so you need to consider what the fed looks at i care about reality you know and prices prices are going up but that's not inflation because if the fed didn't create all this inflation maybe those prices would have really come down maybe consumers would have gotten the benefit of a lower cost of living but the feds stole that benefit away from them by creating inflation but look all of this inflation is going to come home to roost all of a sudden we're going to catch up and we're going to see dramatic increases in consumer prices and then when you go back over the entire period you can say oh look prices are up 10 a year or whatever they're going to be because all of a sudden they're going to shoot way up and it's not going to matter that they were benign uh for a while when all of a sudden they skyrocket and catch up to where they should have been but the cause was all the inflation the federal reserve has been creating the entire time well they i agree that if the fed didn't do what they did we would have had more deflation in a way they were just fighting it to a standstill but we haven't had inflation for 12 years asset prices yes but that's not the definition of inflation the definition of inflation is an expansion of the supply of money and that's what we've had in space with this is the greatest definition of the world has ever experienced you can make up your own definitions period definition of inflation is higher prices jim i'm not making up the definition it's it's people today you go back and get a webster dictionary from 100 years ago and you read what inflation is and it'll it'll it'll say inflation is an expansion of the money supply supply of money and credit rising prices are an effect of inflation right prices don't exist prices go up and they go down money supply inflates you it's inflate is to expand right you don't expand prices what what is being expanded is a supply of money that's inflation inflation is an expansion of the money supply deflation is a contraction of the money supply the effects of inflation are def and deflation are on prices when you have inflation and you're late to my supply prices will go up and when you're deflating it prices will go down but sometimes you can inflate the money supply and prices don't go up because the inflation is preventing prices from going down but don't confuse changes in prices with changes in money supply money supply is in freight is inflation prices are just prices the problem here look we're we're talking we're talking past each other because we have two different definitions if you say that prices are flat but that's inflation fine that's not how any central bank in the world or any economist thinks about yes the central bankers want to pretend that inflation has to do with prices because they don't want to be blamed for it when when you accept the real definition of inflation which is an expansion of the money supply then you know who causes it it's government it's central banks that cause inflation but governments want to blame inflation on the private sector that's why they want to redefine it as prices and you're playing into to their propaganda by trying to perpetuate the idea that inflation is caused by greedy businessmen raising their prices right now you're now you're way over the language you're saying inflation is prices going up you're putting words in my mouth that i never said i said that uh yeah inflation is measured by prices that's just that's just how you do it if you have a different definition that's fine inflation is measured by the money supply thank you very much jim records and peter schiff for being on the show it's a tremendous honor once again to have both of you so i do appreciate it you