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please bring to our remote screen there he is uh nouriel roubini hello nouriel hi hi how are you i'm very welcome thank you um so nouriel is now going to present his speech about his views on bitcoin and its value mario thanks very much for having me uh so let me make a several observation uh we're talking about the bitcoin btc and cryptocurrencies and my first point is that calling them currencies is a misnomer because anybody who knows anything about a monetary theory knows that for something to be a money or to be a currency it has to have a variety of features and bitcoin btc and other cryptocurrencies don't have any of those features feature number one something has to be a unit of accounts for goods and services and also unit of account for how you price financial assets and liabilities we know that nothing is price in bitcoin no goods and services or financial assets and this is not just because people don't want to do so but there are flaws because for something to be a unit of account it must have a stable value relative to an index or a price index of goods and services uh suppose that some goods and services were priced in bitcoin but then the price of bitcoin goes up 20 percent then if you're being paid your wages say in dollars then the real price that you're paying for that good and service has gone up by 20 percent and therefore doesn't make sense to use that as a unit of account or for financial assets and liabilities suppose i had the loan or supposed a mortgage that was essentially in a unit of account of bitcoin and bitcoin goes up by say again 20 then the real value of my liability has gone up by 20 and therefore the fact that nothing is priced in bitcoin or a cryptocurrency is not just by random chances that there is so much volatility in the price that you don't have any stability and therefore it doesn't make sense to have it as a unit of account first observation second observation is that for something to be a currency of course it has to be a widely used and scalable means of payment and we know that the current technology of bitcoin btc uh with the block size and proof of work implies that you can do only five to seven transactions per second well if you for example you're using the visa credit card network you can do 27 000 transaction per second so one aspect of bitcoin it is also not scalable and it's not scalable and therefore is not used as a means of payment and in advance economies where inflation is low there is not even a reason to use bitcoin as an hedge against the inflation prices are stable enough the people are happy to pay for transaction using dollar euro yen or whatever currency swiss ranks they're using in their own country the volatility also of bitcoin is such that again no vendor would accept bitcoin as a way of paying for their goods and services because there is a risk uh you know i've gone to many crypto conferences where if you want to essentially sign up for it you have to pay in dollar or swiss francs not in bitcoin and why suppose that you are being paid as a merchant in bitcoin and then the price of bitcoin falls overnight by 20 percent has happened in recent even 30 overnight then if you have a profit margin of say 10 to 15 your entire profit margin is going to be wiped out by the fact that there has been a change in the price that's why it doesn't make sense and nobody's using it again as a as a means of payment either it's not scalable and it's also risky third of all for something to be a currency it has to be a stable store of value over goods and services first and over wealth again is bitcoin a stable store of value over goods world services no the volatility is such that nobody can essentially use it as a index for goods and services as i said if the price goes up 20 one day and down 20 then you'll have a huge amount of volatility in the purchasing power of bitcoin over those goods and services and if something people want is to be stability i have a certain salary i have certain wage paid in dollar i don't want the price of what i'm buying big changing up or down 20 per day and therefore is not a stable store of value or a purchasing power over goods and services you need something that has a price stability relative to an index of prices and as a store of value for assets is also highly volatile you know look look at what happened in the last month uh you know about a month ago in april uh bitcoin reached an all-time peak of say 64 000 and then a few weeks later was down to almost 30 000 and it fell literally by 50 in value you know people cannot take asset managers portfolio managers especially people that are institutional investor this kind of volatility that an asset that you are holding changes in value by 50 in one month in one month and is not even justified by any fundamental bitcoin is not even a hedge against the risk of episodes people say is an uncorrelated asset that does well when say global equities are doing poorly that's absolutely not true if anything is more volatile and more pro cyclical than traditional risky assets i'll give you the following example in february and march of last year 2020 where the crash of the u.s stock market 35 percent because of the beginning of the covet crisis during that episode usa equities fell by 35 but uh bitcoin btc fell by 50 and other top 10 cryptocurrencies fell by more than 65 so again they're not a hedge against any type of even risk-off episode finally for something to be a currency has to be a single numeral for goods and services so that you can compare the relative price of beef relative to bread relative to water relative to wine and you name it the trouble is that in the crypto space where now thousands and thousands of different currencies or different tokens as far as i can tell there are ten thousand of them and most of them are essentially created as a way of essentially saying if you want to buy my good or if you want to buy my service you have to use this particular token but think of it this way suppose that in order to buy a bottle of coca-cola i need to use a coca-cola token and in order to buy a bottle of pepsi cola i need to buy a pepsi uh caller token then i cannot even compare the relative price of two goods there is no price transparency there is price scales we need a single numeral when we have used the dollar i know what is the dollar price of bread the dollar price of coca-cola the dollar price of pepsi cola the dollar price of meat or chicken or whatever i buy well in a world in which there is tokenization and there are thousands of different tokens there is no price transparencies price chaos is literally like going back to barter because you cannot even compare the relative price of two goods and services even the flintstones the cartoon had a more sophisticated monetary system that bitcoin because they had a single numerator they were using shells single shells as money so they had a single numerator so they could tell there are the price of their bread relative to the rather price of their beef using single numerator of shells in the case of bitcoin is little like going back to literally barter you cannot even do price transparency as having thousands of tokens so point number one calling them currencies or money is a misnomer they have absolutely none of the characteristic of money not a unit of account not a scalable means of payment not a stable store of value not a unit of account for financial assets and liabilities and not a single numerator now rds instead may be assets rather than currencies they're not even assets as we know things that are assets usually have a stream of income or cash flow or profits if you are owning stocks of a firm you're getting overtime profits and dividends if you are earning making a loan you are getting interest on that loan if you are owning a bond you have a coupon that is paid on that bond if you are having a real estate you either get rents or in the case of owner occupied housing you're getting housing services and that's the fundamental value of the fact that things have a stream of income that then determines the fundamental value uh discounted value of that stream of income and is also the reason why you have fundamental reason for any capital gain because you have some value some cash flow of sorts that's the basis of the fundamental value of any asset of any type or sort now commodities uh don't have a direct income but of course i have utility if i also use oil energy gas gives me you know energy services food and agriculture commodity of course i eat them copper or any industrial metal and other services in industry so they have a fundamental value based on the use of them if you take gold because people think sometimes that bitcoin is the new digital gold but if you take a really gold that has been around for thousands of years gold that does not have income that's true but has been used around for thousands of years as a stable store of value it has users in industry gold and silver is using production of a variety of things so these pressure metals have a use it also has utility because for thousands of years people enjoy having jewelry that is made out of gold and finally a gold now doesn't have a monetary use has been demonetized of course after the collapse of the gold standard but it is a stable store of value we know that that the price of gold goes up when there is a weakening of the us dollar we know that goes up when interest rates are low or negative in real terms we know that gold goes up when there is a some political or geopolitical risk we know that gold goes up when there is inflation and is a good hedge against inflation or as against the basement of fiat currency so it has a fundamental value that is the fact that the stable store of value if there is a financial crisis and your bank account is not safe people put money in gold that is safer it's even valuable in deflation during deflation interest rates become zero negative and therefore gold prices went up during the global financial crisis so gold has a fundamental value in thousands of years of history take instead bitcoin btc first of all it doesn't have any income it doesn't have any use as i said it's not a means of payment it's not a stable store of value it doesn't have any use in industry of any sort of any sort it doesn't have any utility nobody is wearing a bitcoin jewelry actually i've seen some people wearing tacky bitcoin kind of gold chains but they're ugly and i don't think anybody's gonna think that bitcoin is gonna become the jewelry of the future and therefore doesn't have any fundamental value it's value is just based on the fact that there is a spec of the bubble uh call it even a ponzi game and if more people demand it because believe that some sucker is gonna buy it and therefore more the price goes up only because of a self-fulfilling irrational bubble that has a no fundamental value so any capital gain is not based on any fundamental value because the fundamental value of it is pretty much zero doesn't even use no utility nothing and therefore is only as speculative leaving aside that is widely manipulated there are pump and dam scheme there's wash trading there is spoofing there is front running there is so many scams um 80 of all icos were literally scams uh based on studies done by researchers there is so much price manipulation going on in this industry there is no uh reliability there is no regulation there is no amal there is no kyc is used by terrorists money launderers human traffickers criminal tax evaders that's the most use of most of these and most of the transactions are just buying one speculative assets against other so in my view the fundamental value of bitcoin based on all this thing is zero but is actually less than zero because as we know bitcoin through his proof of work uh essentially is an energy og it uses the mining of bitcoin the energy of a middle-sized country like switzerland or argentina or netherland so from an environmental point of view is a total total disaster so actually the fundamental value of bitcoin is not zero is negative because if we were to impose a carbon tax or an appropriate tax on the negative externality coming from the production and the mining of bitcoin the value of it fundamentally wouldn't be zero but would be negative so to conclude bitcoin and cryptocurrencies they're not currencies they're misnomer they're not even assets they're just a speculative bubble if not a criminal enterprise in some cases or a total scan or a total unregulated uh kind of criminal activity one sort or another and i'll stop here thank you for your attention you
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