저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 투자는 어렵고, 시장 사이클 위치 파악과 리스크 관리가 핵심이다. 책 'Business Therapy' 소개: 저자는 투자가 쉽다고 말하지 않으며, 투자의 어려움을 보여주려는 목적으로 글을 썼다고 설명한다. 투자의 복잡성: 좋은 투자자가 되려면 동시에 여러 요소를 고려해야 하며, 사람들이 투자를 쉽게 여기는 것은 해로운 일이라고 주장한다. 핵심 요소 1 - 리스크 관리: 시장이 오를 때는 누구나 돈을 벌 수 있으므로, 진정한 실력은 좋은 시기에 수익을 내면서도 리스크를 통제하는 능력에 있다. 판단 기준: 시장이 10% 오르고 본인이 12% 올라도, 10% 하락 시 12% 하락하면 성과가 없다. 상승기에 얻은 수익보다 하락기에 잃는 금액이 적어야 한다. 핵심 요소 2 - 시장 사이클: 미래를 정확히 예측할 수는 없지만, 현재 시장이 사이클의 어디에 있는지 이해하면 미래를 지배하는 확률 분포를 더 잘 파악할 수 있다. 확률 비유: 투자 성과는 복권이 든 항아리와 같다. 당첨 복권이 70%인 시기에는 공격적 투자를 확대하고, 30%인 시기에는 줄이는 것이 유리하다는 취지다. 다만 확률이 유리해도 결과를 보장하지는 않는다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 전망이나 목표가는 언급되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
you know I would find myself sitting in a client's office and I would say the most important thing is controlling risk and five minutes later I'd say the most important thing is buying cheap and the five minutes later I'd say the you know the most important thing is is uh knowing where we stand in the cycle or something like that so I wrote this first a memo around 023 uh called the most important thing and then this book business therapy summarized that investing is difficult Howard marks is not writing to make it easier for individuals to invest instead they want to demonstrate how tough it is to handle so many things at the same time they feel that if individuals truly grasp the complexities of investing they would avoid doing it themselves and you know there are so many things that you have to juggle at the same time to be a good investor that I wanted to share that with people you know business therapy summarize that investing is not simple according to Howard marks investing is a difficult activity that Demands a great deal of effort and talent they believe that making it appear easy will do people a disservice since they will not realize the true effort needed and I think I said in the introduction that I am not writing to make investing easy I would rather write to show how hard it is because there are so many things that have to be juggled simultaneously but if you take an area like investing and you try to make it seem easy you're really doing people a disservice if we if we said to people you know you if you really spent some time on it you could do your own Dentistry or your own legal work or fix your own car you know we wouldn't be doing people a favor and the same is true with Investing For some reason while nobody does their own Dentistry or auto repairs everybody thinks they can be an investor and if they're going to try I'm at least going to give them some of the considerations so one of the things in that 21 was knowing where we stand in the cycle now I think there are two among the 21 most important things I think two are really the most important except for the others business therapy summarize that risk management is critical one of the most crucial components of investing is risk management Howard marks believes that risk management is the Hallmark of a skilled investor and that everyone can profit when the market Rises a superior investor on the other hand achieves returns in good times while keeping risk underco and and they are number one risk and controlling risk because I think that controlling risk is the mark of a professional anybody can make money when the market goes up and most of the time the market goes up and anybody who in who takes above average risk can do above average when the market Rises so achieving returns is not a point of Distinction in Good Times in my opinion the distinction of a superior investor is achieving returns in good times with the risk under control because you never know when the environment is going to shift from favorable to unfavorable and the question is are you prepared you know somebody who if the Market's up 10 and you're up 12 and the Market's down 10 and you're down 12 you didn't accomplish anything question is can you make more in the good times than you give back in the bad times business therapy summarized that understanding the market cycle in relation to the present to comprehend the probability distribution that regulates the future we must first comprehend the present and where we are in it specifically where the market stands in relation to its cycle it is impossible to predict the future but people who view the world more clearly than others can have a better understanding of the probability distribution that regulates the future including what occurrences are likely and which are unlikely understanding the present can so assist us in making better investing selections and then I think the other thing that's most important is the cycle and where we stand in it I don't believe in predicting the future we never know where we're going we should understand the present and where we are in the present where the market is relative to its cycle tells you something about the odds that govern the future doesn't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow but I believe that we can only understand since the world is an uncertain Place filled with randomness we can't know what's going to happen in the future but those of us who see the world more clearly than others can have a superior understanding for the probability distribution that governs the future which what things can happen which are most likely which are somewhat likely which are unlikely if you have that consistently you are a superior is understander and you can be a superior investor so I think the question is what today is the probability distribution that governs the future and one of the things I say in the book which I which I'm happy with is that business therapy summarized that investment returns as a bowl of lotto tickets the performance of Investments can be compared to a bowl full of lottery tickets investment performance is unclear and it is impossible to anticipate the future just as you never know which tickets will be chosen however better investment decisions can be made by understanding the probability distribution that governs the future especially when the bowl has 70 winning tickets and 30 percent losing tickets when the odds are in your favor investing significantly in aggressive Securities can help optimize Returns the future investment performance in particular for me is like a bowl full of lottery tickets you never know which ticket's going to be chosen sometimes the bowl has 70 winning tickets and 30 losing tickets sometimes it has 70 losing tickets and 30 winning tickets wouldn't it be nice to know the difference I think it's possible but you want it when when it's 70 winners and 30 lose you want to go all in you want to invest heavily in aggressive Securities and you reach into the bowl or maybe the gods of Faith reach into the bowl and they pull out a ticket and it's a loser so you know uh as my best friend Bruce Newberg says out in California when we play backgammon which is a game that's dominated by dice there were probabilities and outcomes we can get the probabilities on our side that does not ensure a favorable outcome but it's it's the only thing we can try to do so and that's what the book is all about
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