저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오는 미국 부채 문제가 점진적 경제 둔화를 낳을 것이며 금리는 현 수준 근처에서 횡보할 가능성이 크다고 본다. 핵심 주장: 미국 국채 금리는 예상 인플레이션(약 3.3~3.5%)에 실질금리 1.5~2%를 더한 4.5~5% 부근이 적정 수준이라는 진단이다. 재정 구조: 정부 적자 규모만큼 국채 발행이 필요하고, 주요 매수 주체(중앙은행, 일본 투자자 등)의 수요 약화가 리스크다. 외국인이 미국 국채의 약 40%를 보유하고 있어 수요 불안이 중요하다. 경제 전망: 과도한 현금 지원으로 가계·기업 부문은 양호했으나 정부 부채가 늘어나며, 이자 부담 증가와 부채 만기 도래로 점진적 둔화가 나타날 것으로 본다. 성장률은 0% 안팎(±1%)으로 낮아질 수 있다. 금리 전망: 1년 뒤 금리는 현 수준이 유지되거나 약간 낮아질 가능성이 높으며, 연준 정책은 경기 둔화 시 소폭 완화 정도로 예상한다. 장기 리스크: 부채가 소득 증가보다 빠르게 늘면 이자 지출이 지출을 잠식해 장기 재정 문제가 커지며, 현재 그 변곡점 근처에 있다고 본다. 대선(2024년 11월) 이후 부채 논쟁이 핵심 쟁점이 될 것이다. 출연자 전망: 달리오는 미국 붕괴보다는 완만한 약화와 재정 구조 문제에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 단기 금리 변동은 공급·수요 균형에 따라 움직일 것으로 본다. 대상 자산 예측: 미국채금리는 1~3개월 기준으로 뚜렷한 방향을 명확히 제시하지 않았고, 1년 후 기준으로 현 수준 유지 또는 소폭 하락 가능성을 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Raymond Thomas doio born August 8th 1949 is an American billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Ray Doo has made his last warning and prediction on the US collapse in this video Ray Doo successfully founded the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates in 1975 he is the author of famous books such as principles for success and the changing world order you can get a free copy of his most popular books at the end of the video how bad will America collapse what could cause the US downfall Ray back in September you said that the United States you think will be facing a debt crisis the yields have changed pretty dramatically just in the last week or so you still think that that's the case you have you have a change of 50 25 basis points and so on let's let's just go back to the basics and and the big picture uh first of all let's take the bond yield the bond yield it roughly speaking has got to be about what we determine the expected inflation rate will be over um the period of time that number it probably is settling into the vicinity of 3 3 and a 12% that's the right number there has to be above that a real interest rate in other words for those who are creating holding debt debt assets they have to receive a return above the inflation rate by something probably in the vicinity of 1 and a half 2% so that is going to get you in the vicinity of 4 and a half 5% interest rates and you're seeing the movement around that level then there's the big question of the supply demand for Bonds in other words uh the government produces a certain amount of bonds that are in light of in size of that is equivalent of roughly the size of the deficit that means they're going to have to sell a lot of bonds okay and then we look at who are the buyers of those bonds and do they have an adequate appetite and that's a big risk because we have many who own those bonds have had losses in that that's not just banks that is Cent banks that is Japanese investors and so on and so there's a supply demand issue you'll have these Wiggles around there but those are the fundamentals that will drive it so as we look forward we have a we have a debt problem because you can't keep adding to debt faster than you add to income without that problem so we're seeing the need for the rise in real interest rates so that the Creditor gets an adequate return at the same time as we have a supply demand balance so that's how it looks to me what's happening in the economy is that a lot of money was sent out in the form of checks and the like and went out to a lot of people and and so there was the household sector did well because the government sector did poorly they got themselves in deeper debt intentionally so that the household sector and the business sector could be better off and then there's the rise in interest rates what happens from that is that that Savings of money gradually Goes Down And also the debt maturities as the they roll forward gradually go up and create a squeeze so there's an emerging squeeze happening however the because the unemployment rate is relatively low and because the compens ation levels have been relatively High because of that set of circumstances the household sector's income has been good so you have a sector in the household sector hence the economy as a whole and I'll incl include the business sector in that in which by and large the financial transfer of wealth from the government as it g got in debt and gave it to the public sector gave it to the private SE that is a formula for a gradual weakening economy not a big break in the economy a slowing of that economy I think that's what we're seeing and as a result of that that's what you're seeing in the bond market as there's a bit of a SL slow ease within that R play play this out a little bit longer which is to say where do you think interest rates are a year from now you know on a very just straight up basis but then even longer than that you're talking about the debt problem that we have in this country that's becoming a a main feature of of debate and and a topic of course in in in the presidential election and what's going to happen uh come November 2024 and Beyond uh as far as the question of where uh the rates are I think that the most likely I think the rate structure is going to um be staying at its level perhaps slightly less but there's a range of uncertainty around that having to do with the supply demand question we're now at a period of time where the supply of bonds to be sold will be hit start hitting the market and now we have to see the demand issues of that and that'll be around there I I think that probably in the vicinity of you know I would say somewhere in the vicinity of relatively flat I don't think there's going to be any important change in the FED policy other than may be a slight easing as the economy slows down I think the thing to realize is that there the economy will likely weaken in other words its growth rate going to something close to zero plus plus or minus maybe 1% and with that that that exerts a slight downward pressure on interest rates at the same time the supply issue becomes an important issue damage of of the longer term damage of having these having this enormous amount of debt obviously that's playing into the political debate but if if one I mean it sounds to me you're also arguing that if we're going to have a a soft Landing that maybe people are going to feel more comfortable holding as much debt as we do and that the rates are not going to you know blow through the roof no I think we're talking about the short term as very distinct from the longer term the short term we just talked about the longer term is that we are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service and there is a process by which when when you keep having debt growth faster than income growth then that means that you have Debt Service encroaching on your spending that's the same for the government as it is for us and as that happens and you want to keep spending at the same level there is the need to get more more into debt and the way that works it's like it it accelerates we are at the point of that acceleration which creates the supply demand problem and it's made worse by the other issues that we're talking about I the internal political issue the internal social conflict issue at there is something that is affecting foreign demand for for bonds for about 40% of our debt is sold to foreigners and so there is a concern of the American politics of of of of the controlling of this debt crisis and these types of things so we come back to the same basic question how good how strong are we going to be when we talk about strong what what I mean is also economically strong and economically strong means financially strong that means it's just a basic thing Financial Financial strong means do you earn more than you spend and do you have a good income statement as a country do we have a good income statement and do we have a good balance sheet more assets than we have liabilities the worse that gets the more we are going to have that long-term problem and it's just you can see it in the numbers it's just a matter of numbers we are near that inflection point do you think the United States can control its fast growing debt which politicians will cause the US us collapse get a free Audi book of Ray Doo's bestselling books in the description or comment below do you want to retire early do you love freedom do you want to work only 1 to two hours a day while traveling around the world and spend more time with your family you can start Stock Investing and option trading right now if you want to know more about Finance stocks options real estate crypto check out our playlist startop investing start trading option trading real estate cryptocurrency
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