😲 Warren Buffett's Advice For When Stocks Crash (not what you think)

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S&P500이 2월 19일 고점 이후 4조달러 이상 하락해 조정 국면에 근접했고, 관세 확대가 하락의 주원인이다. 워런 버핏의 조언으로 'Keep your head' 시를 인용하며 장기 전략 유지를 강조한다. 시장 타이밍 대신 시장에 머무는 것이 중요하며, 강제 매도(생활비·부채 상환·공포에 의한 매도)를 피하기 위해 최소 2년치 생활비를 채권으로 보유하라고 권한다. 자문 활용도 권하며 스폰서 링크를 언급한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. It's a pretty scary time in the stock market right now. There's no way to sugarcoat that. And in difficult times, I find it helpful to look at advice from successful investors and see what advice do they have for us when the stock market is going through a correction like this. And so in today's video, I want to share with you some advice Warren Buffett has given in the past about stock market crashes, and I can share with you his advice is not what you think it's going to be.

02. But first, I want to address is is is this an unusual time? How bad is the situation that we're going through right now? As I record this since the February 19th highs, the S&P 500 has given up over $4 trillion of value and it's almost in correction territory. We're a few points away from the 10% correction.

03. That's a big move, and unfortunately, what's driving it is fears about the the tariffs and things escalating it. And as of this recording, President Trump has has just announced he's increasing the tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada from 25% to 50%. And why is he doing that? He's doing that because Canada said they're going to put a special tax on the energy that they sell to the United States.

04. So it does look like this this tariff war this trade war is beginning to escalate, and things can very quickly go from not so good to bad to worse. Okay. So what is what is Warren Buffett's advice in times like this? And in the past, um in his annual letters to shareholders in 2017, he had this quote, which is he recommended that people remember the verses from the quote "Keep your head" from from the poem "Keep your head." And and what that poem says is, "If you can keep your head when all when all about you are losing theirs, if you can wait and not be tired by waiting, if you can think and not make thoughts your aims, if you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, yours is the world yours is the earth and everything in it." And and and so that's that's a great poem for us to remember because we have a long-term strategy.

05. We're investing because we want our investments to increase at the rate faster than inflation, so we can maintain our purchasing power. And admittedly, that gets more difficult as inflation increases. Not only is inflation a headwind for the companies in the stock market, but it's also makes it harder for us to maintain that that benchmark of of keeping our purchasing power.

06. So what do we do? What should we do to protect ourselves in times like this? First, the time to make decisions on what to do is when you're thinking rationally and you're cool-headed and and you're able to make good decisions. When we're scared, when we're worried, when we see that our 401k account is maybe down $100,000 from its high, it's hard to make good decisions at that time.

07. So if if if you're feeling panicky, if you're feeling worried, if if you're going from the point of worrying to what I call angst, that's that's a sign that it's it's time to pause, and it may not be the the time that you're going to make the best decisions that you'll look back on later on. So what So what do we do?

08. The first thing is, what is our long-term asset allocation? When times were calm and we're thinking well, what what did we feel was our long-term asset allocation? What percent of our portfolio was in stocks and what percent in bonds? And And are you still there? Are you still at that long-term allocation?

09. Because if you are, I've got good news for you. That just staying the course, we have seen these types of corrections before. A 10% correction from peak to trough in the stock market is not unusual. So this is normal. We see these things, and even if it goes worse from 10% on, it's really the the goal is the goal is really twofold.

10. The first thing is it's time in the market, not trying to time the market. It's very tempting to try to time the market, but most of us will never be able to do that successfully. In In fact, I would say 99% plus of us will never be able to do that successfully multiple times. You may get lucky once, but there's very few people that I know of that have done it two, three times or more.

11. So that's the first thing. The other really foundational rule is to do what you can to avoid being a forced seller in a down market. Now, what do I mean by that? Right now, the market's down almost 10%, and if you're selling stocks on a monthly basis in order to um fund your living expenses, then you don't have any choice if you don't have other sources of cash.

12. You become a forced seller just because you need the cash. So that's one way people become a forced seller. There's really three ways. So one way is you need the cash for living. The second way is maybe you have debt coming due. Oftentimes, I see this with people that are involved in real estate as investments.

13. There's debt coming due. They don't have any choice. They they don't have cash available elsewhere, so that they have to sell stocks from their portfolio. And then the third way, which is the most common way, is people go from "I'm worried about the stock market. I don't like what's happening in the economy.

14. I don't like what's happening in the stock market." They go from a normal sense of worrying to an increased sense of worrying, which again, I call angst. And that angst, that pain, that mental pain causes them to lose sleep and a a knot in your stomach, and it just it it it it you just want the pain to stop.

15. And to make the pain stop, sometimes people say, "Enough. I don't care. Sell the stocks. I don't want to see them go down anymore." And that can really be an expensive mistake. I've seen that hurt people. So what do you do? First, I encourage you to to have in your portfolio enough bonds to fund you right When I say asset allocation, I mean stocks and bonds.

16. I encourage you to have enough bonds in your portfolio to fund at least a couple years' worth of living expenses. I don't know your situation. This isn't financial advice, but it's something for you to consider because if you have at least a couple years' worth of living expenses in bonds, then you can then you can weather the storm.

17. You don't have to sell your stocks, which are at a at a low. Now, it depends on how much money you have. Two years' of living expenses can be a lot of money. So you need to balance that. I encourage you to work with a fee-only financial advisor, a fiduciary to you 100% of the time, to get this asset allocation right.

18. I know many of you will will will never use a financial advisor, frankly, because it can be expensive. I would, you know, mea culpa, I was a financial advisor for over 20 years. Um but I would argue one 10% mistake managing your money yourself pays to have a professional by your side for a decade. And so that that 1% a year fee can be worthwhile.

19. But for those of you that don't want to work with a professional, I encourage you to at least use software to help you look at the right factors, to help you plan for your retirement, to help you plan for your finances. I like the software called Bolden. It used to be called New Retirement. I think it's very affordable.

20. It's $120 a year. I am an affiliate of Bolden, so if you use the link in the description below, you'll be supporting the channel. But what do we do? We we put ourselves in a situation where we don't have to be a forced seller in a down market, where we can remain calm and and know that the decisions we made when when the weather was fine, when the sun was shining, and and we can be in a better situation then.

21. Thanks for watching this video. YouTube says this is the next video of mine that you should watch. I look forward to chatting. Bye-bye.