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hey everyone me Kevin here I need help there are two things that I need help with one of them is market-based and one of them is not Market based It's actually an invitation for you if you'd like to work in person for myself at both of my startups be sort of a dual enrollment as an interm consider sending us an email at jobs meetkevin.com with a one minute pitch video and your resume if you've got one if you don't have a resume that's okay but it'd be in anything from accounting intern work software engineering Finance little experience lot of experience doesn't matter uh consider emailing us at jobs meetkevin.com keep in mind our interns and no guarantees for the future for anybody else but keep in mind our interns that started at uh California minimum wage and worked for 9 to 12 months at that level uh are now making over $120,000 each so keep that in mind there's a there's a lot of a lot to learn so now let's talk about the market issue that we need help with so I want to be crystal clear here I think that the Nike Swoosh is going to continue to hold and the best thing that we could look forward to right now is potentially buy the dip opportunity before the election as we have election uncertainties start to ramp but here's why and it's something I just realized this well I mean i' I've known this but it just it dawned on me a little bit more over the weekend and it's in my opinion a huge catalyst so what's the biggest thing that we're looking at if we're a bear right now or we're a bull considering bearish arguments well we're looking at Elon Musk losing sorry um we're looking at the broader Market selling off due to a rapid increase in unemployment at this point the Federal Reserve has basically washed their hands of inflation kind of are acting like yeah we're willing to wait we've gone through all that before they've washed their hand of uh hands of wages going up and a wage price spiral so they've washed their hands of inflation the wage price spiral supply chain issues uh geopolitics they've basically washed their hands of every negative Catalyst with the exception of the potential for a sudden move down in the jobs Market in other words a spike in unemployment or spike in joblessness well there's something that's already been propping up the jobs Market but that actually may continue to prop up the jobs market for quite a while going forward and that's immigration both illegal and legal consider this when the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls us up and says hey you got a job or how many employees you have they're not asking legal or illegal this means it's entirely possible that we could be in a situation where we continue to get illegal immigration and it actually just and quite frankly legal immigration and all it does is prop up well certainly existing politicians right politicians today doesn't matter Democrat Republican obviously the incumbent president but also senators and and representatives they'd like to brag over good employment numbers and I hate to say it but the reality is you don't get bad unemployment numbers when the border is nearly wide open or what feels like it's wide open it actually helps politicians because the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn't asking about immigration status they're trying to get clear surveys and so when they call businesses how many employees do you have or when they call households how many people have a job in your house they're not asking what your immigration status is because then nobody's going to answer their freaking survey so job numbers actually go up due to all forms of immigration not just legal immigration so that actually makes politicians less incentivized to deal with the Border crisis which if any country should be able to deal with the Border crisis it should be us but maybe there's a reason we're not because it actually props up to some extent the economy GDP it makes the Federal Reserve feel like the econom is popping along it makes politicians happy because we're not in a recession pretty much in a recession every politician loses their job but look at what we have right now we have what feel like Rosy employment numbers we have the Atlanta fed GDP P numbers that just came out uh on the 24th 32% these are some crazy numbers absolutely crazy numbers some other things that are absolutely crazy numbers are the fact that we've taken this trading account from like $980,000 to over uh$ 2.26 million have the same success going forward but let's just say it's going really well think I had another $50,000 profit day today oh actually I might be a little bit higher I should send in an updated screenshot here but um while I pull that up we have a coupon code expiring Friday so if you're not part of it yet d it's educational based I can't guarantee you're going to make or lose money but I can say I'm going to provide you the best education that I can in both real estate entrepreneurship Finance you name it uh I did just update that p&l sheet uh for today and it looks like uh with the trades this morning is able to get the account up to 2 2,700,000 so that was another p&l like 50,000 is a day so yay let's see if we can keep those trades going uh but uh anyway take a look at those courses linked down below I also want to give a really quick shout out to the wonderful vacation that we just had this weekend I took some of the trading tendies and I decided to spend them on a really cool vacation with the family so what we actually did is uh we went to a ranch and uh we got to do some really cool fun things uh not only stay in cabins but drive these golf carts around five star restaurants uh yeah just peace and quiet away from technology dude's trip uh we did compound bows regular Recurve Bows so archery horseback riding uh just a really good time out in nature away from Tech uh I did wear a helmet because I think my entire staff would kill me if I didn't wear a helmet when I was on the horse although it's much cooler to wear a cowboy hat especially since we got rodo over there as well so uh really really fun time fantastic time roasted marshmallows with the kids too there's Sasquatch Max is taking on Sasquatch so really really good time but anyway uh okay let's get to the topic so so what I need your help with is trying to understand where the negative catalysts are because here's the thing I want I want you to think about this for a moment negative catalysts what do we have we have the 10 two yield curve inversion that's it 10 two yield curve inversion or the twoos 10 we call it uh the inversion right now sits at -44 bips that's a bad Omen but right now the reason we're getting this long uh basically inverted yield curve is because we're being propped up on the jobs numbers partly because of this immigration issue as a result interest rates will probably as we've heard already many times before stay higher for longer we're only pricing in as of right now we are only pricing in 1.37 rate cuts that's a that's a chunk lower than what we were pricing in last week yet why then is the NASDAQ ad dooodle up 18 bips well the reason is unfortunately I don't think there are enough negative catalysts right now unless there's a Black Swan event to say bad things are coming earnings are passed us they came in substantially better on a PE basis than we expected that's basically we're looking at here's where we thought the PE levels would be earnings came in higher oh wow that was off expectations so pees are actually lower than we thought pric earnings ratios bottom line is earnings came in just substantially better than expected not only did earnings come in better than expected but inflation is still on a substantial downtrend and after the latest inflation report we saw our 5-year Break Even which was starting to rise settle back down we're 2.34 right now this is nowhere near the spike we had in you know March and April when we had a little bit of that S&P and NASDAQ selloff I was a buy the dip opportunity but it was a short one and so this is where I need your help finding bearish arguments I want you to leave comments down below is it the housing market we did a housing market video last week where we had um uh Mr Barry sterli halting with uh redemptions but he wasn't halting redemptions because the market was plummeting he's halting redemptions because he thinks this could be the bottoming of the real estate market he actually thinks the Boom is ahead that's great for house hack you know we're we're looking to expand our purchases as we speak it's one of the reasons I'm looking for uh more interns so we can really start establishing our outposts in some of the different markets that we're working to expand into uh so we got inflation data we talked 2 is 10 that's really the only bad Omen inflation expectations stable we talked jobs data we know GDP data is booming again the only bad data we're getting out of GDP data which we do have a catalyst this week on GDP is that exports uh are weak uh and of course inventory buildup but that makes sense I mean this morning I was talking to uh course members about ubiquity in a fundamental analysis on ubiquity I'll pull up one page here that I think you really ought to be paying attention to if you're not already uh and keep in mind GDP for the second estimate is only expected to be 1.3% that comes out in two days that's a Thursday morning Catalyst at 5:30 in the morning probably trade it but anyway um look at this right here oh and remember it doesn't so much matter the GDP report because again you got to strip out exports and inventory buildup so what's going on with inventory buildup well companies aren't actually building up inventory anymore look at ubiquity inventor is 737 million down to 533 million why is the inventory uh starting to get drawn down and why all of a sudden are we going from spending $500 million in I think this is 9 months for inventory to gaining $181,000 on inventory or sorry Million Dollar on inventory what because of what's called inventory draw down and the expectation that Supply chains have gotten so loose that if you need to manufacture more you can just pick up the phone and go yo double the order and the the manufacturers are like sure the only place you're really seeing a manufacturing shortage right now is in being able to get out the advanced gpus like the Blackwells you still have supply shortages there uh but uh as far as manufacturing otherwise broadly for generic Internet of Things Tech and a small bit small mediumsized business recovery as rates start trending down eventually ubiquity is an interesting play um actually at the time of this video not exposed to it but um I'm I'm looking at it it's it's you know it's it's had a it's had a rough year and a half but it's getting interesting again uh and it's had a little pop recently after earnings here after we got this sort of data but anyway um just being transparent so um I'm I'm looking for bad data I don't see it in housing yes inventory is rising but we anticipated that happening and that is going to soften markets especially in overbuild markets so yes there will be some softness in housing commercial softness is going to continue for a while but that's fine then you've got uh consumer spending still robust I realize that lower incomes are uh suffering you have higher interest expenses on Autos car values are going down at the same time credit cards defaults are going up but just because it you know the lower end has like a little smoldering doesn't mean the entire economy is going to tank on that you can smolder and frankly just burn people's wealth the little that folks in the lower income Spectrum have have uh for much longer without the economy turning so then you're really looking at a maybe a banking crisis but frankly we haven't had a banking crisis since the bank term funding program ended and as they start cutting rates you're actually reducing the odds of a banking crisis some people say oh well what about the t+1 liquidity challenges I mean yeah you could have some weird one-off liquidity issue but you know the fed's just going to bail that out right away so then you've got geopolitics you know China Taiwan but as we've researched many times before those are some of the best buy the dip opportunities like right the moment of invasion you buy the dip and then you just slowly melt up in that Nike Swoosh pattern I think we are TR we are heading towards a trajectory of NASDAQ all-time highs not only NASDAQ alltime highs which obviously we're already on let me clarify that NASDAQ inflation adjusted all-time highs that's a big difference NASDAQ inflation adjusted all-time Highs are probably going to put you somewhere around like 518 on uh on the q's and our next fiby right here is 501 on the on a fib extension now I know a lot of people get pissed at me when I when I talk fibbies and the extensions they're like oh this is just fugazi fugazi but if you go back to my Nvidia videos when people ask me Kevin what's your next breakout support level I go 1116 it was just a simple FIB extension and look at where we're trading today we're literally rubber banding around the 1116 level these are the things that I like to trade I like to trade trends that I'm noticing and you can actually see this live live in my course member live stream this morning in the live stream which is in this early 7:00 hour we started it right here at like 7:02 and we're going live I drew these very very simple consolidation lines here on the minute which also gets reiterated on the F minute chart and I said this is dangerous this is probably going to break down this is it happened live like if you haven't joined the courses yet and you join that live stream you could literally watch me say this is probably going to break down I don't know what certainty but I'm like 6 % this is going to break down and sure enough it breaks down and and it's been worse for the rest of the day since so those are the things that I like to teach those are the things I like to trade off of again I can't guarantee we could always be profitable uh but so far let's just say great day today I traded the Virgin Galactic rally traded Tesla and I lost money on Celsius the reason I lost money on Celsius is because I saw that consolidation pattern and I said I'm out I'm going to cut my loss I'm not going to hold I'm not going to Diamond hand that trade so I think I was down like 15% on that one obviously my Tesla trade offset that and then Virgin Galactic substantially you know that made the Bucks today uh but anyway so so like I say not everything's going to win or lose that's my realized p&l today that's why the account moved from 2020 to like 2070 uh so just over $2 million uh but anyway join the stocks and psychology money group if you want those Buy sell alerts so at least you could see what I'm doing and you can trade around it usually recommend people look for uh the idea and not copy traits actually I always recommend that because I don't give people personalized advice don't don't copy trades but anyway uh okay so uh what else so okay the cues can get to an inflation adjusted all-time high people are going to be pissed you like bro I've been milking money markets for 5% why am I why did I have the money there in cash when you know the Market's moving up substantially more than that that realization I think will just continue to come especially as we get softer inflation data in the second half and now jpow could be lying through his teeth but just know what we have coming up we have the CPI release coming up in the middle of next month and you want to know what the estimates right now are for CPI month over month .1% okay well that's nothing and then if I look at the uh core we're at 316 on the estimate uh that's core Services that's uh let me look at the survey here really quick oh I'm sorry the average is actually.
29 so no at least not currently surveyed we could always get Black Swan and rug pulled you know that's where trading and hedging can come in to help but can I really advocate for saying oh you know there's the next big Catalyst around the corner no I don't see it and and again maybe I'm blind to it and that's why I need your help not only email me if you want an internship but all jobs at me Kevin with a one minute pitch video in your resume but also where are the negative Catalyst where can I be bearish so it's not GDP I don't think it's housing uh I don't think uh the yield curve inversion is going to do anything for us yet because of the immigration issue the immigration issue is just keeping everything propped up which does mean higher for longer that does burn small caps small businesses and unfortunately poor individuals but you know manufacturing's coming out of a recession not going into a recession the data we've been looking at shows us that we're actually potentially like the Deutsche Bank piece we talked about last week we're actually coming out of what they call this sort of like micro or faux recession where everything had this sort of like cyclical recession you the semis had their first recession then they recover out uh you know then you had the mega caps they recover out of their recession uh and the layoffs then you have uh you know basically the last ones here probably your interest rat s sensitives but you're actually starting to see this recovery on the interest rate sensitives too now people ask me about Tesla and N phase oh look at that that trend's actually continuing if I extend this a little bit people ask me about Tesla and nphase nasee is actually a more Pure Play interest rate sensitive investment than Tesla is right now the reason for that is obviously markets are going to start pricing in rate Cuts but the reason for that is you have a lot of negative Catalyst for Tesla I hate to say that I am a I'm a Tesla fan I have exposure to Tesla but you have to keep this in mind the mode of full self-driving is wearing and people who think that the mode of full self-driving is not wearing have a stick so far up there behind that they're duding themselves I want you to think about this I bought a Tesla at the end of 2017 and full self-driving had really been you know FSD people have really been using that for about a year then so say 202 2016 to about 2023 you have this run of full self-driving it's about seven years 7 years to get from the early versions of FSD to version 11 then in the last year you basically delete all of that you take that data you've collected and you run it through 35,0 h100s and you spit out version 12 in a year okay wait so that means we created a better version of full self- driving in one year than we did in the seven years before that okay that makes sense from a technological point of view but where's the risk here well the risk is Blackwell chips could do it with four times fewer chips so think about this 35 divid 4 somebody would only have to buy about 9,000 Blackwell chips and they would have the same compute power assuming they had the data to build out an FSD stack now obviously they don't have the data that Tesla does but what do you think we're going to start seeing build out over the next one to two years all the autos and and they all suck with their eight ass right now but Toyota Mercedes for J they don't all to Candle the Tesla right now but byd xping do and what are they all doing they all start collecting data then look only one iteration over from the h100 to Blackwell you need four times fewer chips what about next year when you have Blackwell 2.0 and you only need 4,000 chips instead of 9,000 chips let's say you get another 4X Improvement right well now all of a sudden somebody gets data between now and the end of next year the end of 2025 now you train it potentially faster as well by mid 2026 my guess is you're going to start having FSD versions at companies like Ford GM Mercedes BMW Toyota all of a sudden the FSD mode from Tesla burn that's not good now some people are like but Kevin why don't people just license from Tesla Tesla told you themselves that it would take three years to see Tesla FSD licensing from contract today to in someone's vehicle in production on the road 3 years well with today's Nvidia technology they can literally do that themselves in 3 years they could have their own FSD in 3 years collect data now over the next year year and a half train it on chipsets that are as powerful as we have today where we can run simulations to catch up on the data lead that Tesla has the reality is the the success you have in FSD curves out we know that Nvidia told us that themselves you know I saw a video uh from somebody uh I don't even know why I watched it but they're like oh you know the most bullish thing ever for Tesla was Nvidia shouting out uh uh FSD and I'm like are you smoking crack that was the most bullish thing for NVIDIA not Tesla here's the chart I was just referring to progress curves out over time as costs goes up so Tesla gets bogged over here at the end while everybody else could catch up really fast you know everybody else can get to 98% while Tesla's working on the last percent see but the shout out from Nvidia was actually the most bullish thing ever for nvidia's Edge case scenario uh simulation training and data training because now any other OEM can use the Nvidia Orin platform which isn't even out yet uh and they could use the Orin platform to um sorry I'm sorry let me correct this Nvidia Drive Thor powered by Blackwell will replace Orin we're on Orin right now Thor is going to be the new one uh but anyway uh this platform is going to be one of the biggest FSD competitors to Tesla I'm convinced and guess what it's true software service because Nvidia is designing chips they're not manufacturing them so they're selling you a design obviously in a completed chip product but then they're also licensing you the FSD software through Nvidia Drive Thor it's insane now obviously I think that's one of the reasons why Nvidia is actually up 5% today and Tesla's down 2% today you also have some of the other issues with Tesla like um you know the vote for Elon Musk I still think and I'm not advocating for one way or the other here but I think some people are going to vote to punish Elon because they think you know oh he said he was going to build out a super computer stack at Tesla now it's not Dojo is just an edge case instead we're going to build out the super computer stack over at xai Great and you've already been recruiting Talent away for AI from Tesla over to xai because that's your new latest and greatest whatever uh I think people are going to punish him so uh I'm not saying that people should vote against Elon here because you know commitment made is a commitment that should be honored but people are going to go back and they're going to justify and go you know uh it was wasn't properly disclosed vote no you know and and there's your out basically for saying uh you're you're backing out on a deal and I think people are going to punish them this is going to be a very tight vote and so this is a big Catalyst between now and June 13th I think if the vote goes through the stock can actually go up again but uh if it doesn't um you might actually already be pricing in a lot of that negativity but but I'm not certain but anyway there are some concerns about the long-term moat of Nvidia or sorry of Tesla's FSD and I think that's worth paying attention to one of the reasons I say that nphase is a more Pure Play than um than Tesla so something to keep in mind so um yeah I mean other than that boy I mean I think your next Catalyst really is a Microsoft breakout here look at Microsoft stuck at the uh 430 that's your next Catalyst for Microsoft an all-time high on Nvidia would be nice to sorry on uh Meadow would be nice to see and Apple's just chugging along on its recovery as buying the crap out of it over here at the 169 level uh but anyway email us for bundles at staff meetkevin.com uh if you go to meetkevin.com you can see uh various different uh topics here you see the um next coupon expires this Friday at 11:59 you can see the various different programs you can bundle up the Vegas Symposium check that out you can join this if you want got some bundles up here as well uh and U by the way this is pretty cool as well not a lot of people know about this but we put a secret link over here it's not really secret now that I'm telling you about it but anyway um this is the wealth plan library and this is basically where we did 37 actual Financial advice lectures for people's specific scenarios to say this is the one thing that you should really be focusing on now to get your wealth to the next level we did that in a um confidential way so like their names aren't in it or their personal information but you can actually buy those 37 recordings if you want so check that out a lot of people are bundling that together it's pretty cool uh and uh it's a very I think affordable price as well so check that out but otherwise thank you so much for being here really appreciate you all uh the video is also brought to you by coinbase if you haven't checked them out yet go to metkevin.com coinbase and when you go there you can get up to $200 uh in free benjes if you sign up for coinbase I personally think uh coinbase is the place to trade crypto uh and uh that is uh and we've got an Institutional account we're setting up with coinbase as well which is kind of cool uh and so we're pretty excited about maybe even using uh in the future a coinbase for on- ramping and fundraises be kind of cool there's some cool things we can do there especially with uh real estate mini funds so a lot of cool things where we've got cooking we're very very excited hence also why we are looking for interns email us at jobs.com for a potential internship role thank you so much it is in person remember that out ther
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