저자: MichaelBurry—영상내발언기준제작자해설포함 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 2022년 2분기 기준 보유 종목을 12개에서 1개(GEO Group)로 줄이며 경기 침체(economic winter)를 대비하는 것으로 해석됨. 근거 1: 1분기 11개 종목 매각 — Warner Bros, Sportsman Warehouse, Alphabet, Meta 등 매각 언급. 남은 GEO Group 보유액은 330만 달러 수준이며 교정시설·정신건강시설 운영 기업. 근거 2: 가계부채 증가 — 뉴욕연은 자료 기준 미국 총 가계부채 16.15조 달러(전분기 대비 3,120억 달러, 2% 증가), 주택담보대출 잔액 11.39조 달러(2,070억 달러 증가). 신용카드 잔액은 20년 이상 만에 최대 연간 증가율, 신용카드 한도는 10년 이상 최대 증가. 연체 전환율은 상승했으나 역사적으로는 여전히 낮은 수준. 근거 3: 시장 흐름 — 2월 이후 급락 후 반등 중이나 제작자는 저점 확인 여부에 회의적. 2008년 사례처럼 장기 상승 후 침체 확인 전후 추가 급락 가능성을 언급하며 과거 패턴을 참고점으로 제시. 2010~2020년 장기 강세장 이후 코로나 급락, 부양책에 따른 신고점 이후 현재 부채 증가·인플레이션 상승 등 펀더멘털이 상승장을 지지하지 않는다고 평가. 결론: 제작자는 시장 하락이 끝났다고 보기 이르며 신중한 투자 판단을 권고. 개별 종목 목표가·구체적 기간 언급은 없음. 출연자 전망은 전반적 약세 쪽이나 방향과 기간은 명확하지 않음. 리스크: 과거 사례의 단순 대입 경고, 반등 가능성 존재, 데이터 해석의 주관성.
다듬은 글
welcome back to what has been the first video in quite a while but this time we're going to be talking about something slightly different we're going to be having a look at the opinions of somebody who's quite popular in the realm of markets of course this is going to be a video centered on michael bury and what he thinks based on what we're seeing in the current market so if you enjoy this sort of content in a post what we normally do do subscribe of course and we can make more of this sort of stuff again i did want to try something new hopefully it works we're going to be trying a few of these hopefully and again looking at what is going on in the market as of current because things are changing anyway so this one's going to be a bit more of a presentation we're going to be looking through michael's opinion looking through what the facts say and then combining it at the end if you enjoy this sort of thing do subscribe so we're going to work our way through the slides and see where we go first light now this is going to be something which most of you will know but this is just a quick summary on who michael is so michael barry who is he most have an idea on who he is like he said he's an american investor and hedge fund manager i highlighted mainly the main parts in colors so yeah he's a hedge fund manager best known for being amongst the first investors to predict and profit from the mortgage crisis which of course occurred between 07 and 2010.
so right now what we're seeing is michael bury saying that he believes an economic winter is incoming now this is all cited from the daily huddle and it says this so a document filed by michael burry's scion assessment management i believe it is with the ussc has basically shown that he holds one stock one stock and this is as of the second quarter of 2022 now the reason why this is so key is because he has sold 11 stocks in the first quarter he owned 12 stocks so you can see he's reduced significantly the amount of companies he invests in so we can see a few of the names which he has uh liquidated shares in so his shares have been liquidated in warner bros uh sportsman warehouse holdings and others which you may have heard of you know some real big names in there such as alphabet and meta platforms so now he only holds 3.3 million worth of shares in geo group a company that invests in private prisons and mental health facilities really interesting that he choose to invest in those solely again we can kind of infer as to why that may be but it would just be a speculation but if we think about why potentially it's the fact that these companies are always useful they always are needed again not necessarily recession proof but some companies and again i'm not saying which ones some companies are quite a bit more resilient because of their fundamentals in recessions than others anyway so this is a quick summary and a screenshot which i took as to who geo group actually are so who we are this is on their site and it's under their about us section jio provides complementary turnkey solutions for numerous government partners worldwide across a spectrum of diversified correctional and community re-entry services from the development of state-of-the-art facilities and the provision of management services and evidence-based rehabilitation to the post-release reintegration and supervision of the individuals into the community geo offers a fully diversified cost-effective service that delivers enhanced quality and improved outcomes so again it talks about what they do in their words again somewhat of a correctional facility as was said before you know they invest in prisons and of course mental health facilities so again if you wanted a bit more of a summary as to what they actually do word for word based on their interpretation well there you go again now moving on to the why why now why has michael chosen to do this now why is now such a key time for him and why has this kind of you know swayed his mind so what we're seeing now in the markets is this so his commitment comes as a federal reserve bank of new york center for microeconomic data reveals now the total u.s household debt now stands at 16.15 trillion that's up by 312 billion or 2 percent from the second quarter or rather in the second quarter of 2022 mortgage balances the largest component of household debt well that's climbed by 207 billion and it stood at 11.39 trillion as of june the 30th now these figures of course are rising quite dramatically again these increases two percent it may sound incremental tiny infinitesimal but in actuality no that is a big increase and again we can look back to the past as to what happens when when things like the household debt level starts to rise when things like mortgage balances start to rise as well and when credit card balances again see the same thing so what we've seen here now is credit card balances saw the largest year-over-year percentage increase in more than 20 years we are also seeing the aggregate limits on credit cards marked the largest increase in over 10 years transactions into delinquency tick-top but remained low very low compared to historical levels so that's one thing which we could see and you know interpret but realistically in my personal opinion this is all quite significant again we've seen in the past look back to 2008 and around that time what happens when we see household debt increase when we see mortgage balances increase are we looking at the potential for a crisis are we looking at the potential for a crash well inevitably michael thinks so now moving on to our next slide this is going to be a summary as to what we are seeing in the markets in the past month so what we're seeing now is some market rallying in the past few weeks it's easy to think that the market decline is over but we cannot interpret the past scenario directly and again that's what i was talking about in the previous slide we cannot necessarily interpret it as a one-to-one example saying that this happened in o8 therefore we're going to crash right now but we can use the history as a guide as to what may happen so again this chart down here is looking at the us markets and what we're seeing generally speaking on a lot of the indices now it doesn't matter which one you look at the s p the nasdaq or the dow we're all seeing something pretty similar again still moving up a bit more some moving up a little bit less but really from february we're seeing this decline coming down very very steeply we saw a bit of an increase fair enough and then we saw this period where we inevitably look like we may have found the bottom and this has a lot of people thinking while this is over well if we have a look at this yes it does look like it could be a bottom and it looks like we are rallying but do not be fooled zooming out to the larger picture we get a bit more of an interpretation as to what is really going on and this is coming up to the end of the video again i'm trying to keep this one quite short but i do want to focus on the main things that we need to look at to have an understanding of this situation so this is going to be the longer part of the video because whilst we have less to talk about on paper i do want to infer a lot of stuff so yeah going back to the previous chart first again we've seen this increase which i have highlighted in this bubble coming over here we're going to be seeing what happened in historical events such as 08 now looking back to 2008 the recession originally began after a long market rally we can see that coming in after that we saw an official recession confirmed this was after quite a steep decline and at that point you know we have to think oh well where's this gonna go it looks like well the recession's confirmed we saw a slight uptick and again this is looking on a chart which spans almost 20 years so again looking at this on a more close scale perhaps a one two three month chart back to 08 we're going to be seeing something which looks a bit more significant so yeah we're seeing that small rise and after that you know people may be thinking well it's coming to an end but actually what we saw is we saw a massive dip as the recession becomes something which we are all feeling now looking up to what we've seen in 2020 because that's when all of the more interesting stuff that we're seeing now uh really started to commence obviously we saw a big market rally from basically 2010 all the way up to 2020.
it's a 10-year really bullish market to be honest with you and then we saw kovid come along now of course when kobe came crush we all saw everything a decline now looking back to history it wasn't that big of a dip really but you know at the unprecedented time that we were at it was quite a large decline now from there we had stimulus and all that sort of stuff all really stimulating the economy as you would expect and we saw the economy and the markets subsequently hit new highs now after those new highs the question is where do we go now of course we know unfortunately runs like this are long-term unsustainable and especially when we look back to the data that we are seeing such as this you know household debt rising mortgage balances rising it all adds up and we all see this one come together and now the recession is in a state where it is coming to be confirmed well where do we go again it's not looking like we are in a situation where we're going to be seeing bullish things happen when all of the fundamentals which would make a bull run happen are just lacking we're seeing inflation rise we're seeing household debt rise like i keep going on about and all of this sort of stuff is going to be having that impact so don't underestimate it like he said it's very easy to look at things like this where we saw risers here where we saw risers here i'm not saying it's going to be a one-to-one repeat but we are not at the highs that we were at prior so we're not necessarily out of this hole and again whilst this is just my opinion and michael's opinion combined realistically pros can get it wrong but it doesn't really take long to look at the evidence do your due diligence and work out what you think is going to happen again it's for you to make the call but this is just my personal interpretation based on what i am seeing so to sum things up very quickly we're in a place where the markets have been rising throughout july coming into august now we're starting to go back down quite steeply again and the question is where do we go again the fundamentals not looking too cheerful if you ask me unfortunately and i think it's very early to say at the best case scenario that the market decline is over so you should definitely do what you think is right this is just what michael is saying i just wanted to bring you one of these opinion related videos as i do quite enjoy researching these sorts of things again it wasn't the best presentation but i did what i could with this one guys again if it does do better than our ordinary style of content perhaps i can make these uh more analytical videos coming at you every now and again so if you enjoyed of course subscribe share it with a friend and i'll see you in our next one
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