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let me digress for a minute because this is really important how do you make money as an investor the people who don't know think the way you do it is by buying good assets a good building stock in a good company or something like that that is not the secret for success the secret for success in investing is buying things for less than they're worth so if you buy a high quality asset you know there's a and i say in the book there's a guy in on the radio i i i used to when i lived in l.a i listened to npr on the way to work and there was a guy who's and i heard him say it he said well if you go into a store and you like the product buy the stock it couldn't be more wrong because what determines the success of an investor is not what he buys but what he pays for it and if you buy a high quality asset but you overpay for it you're in big trouble you can buy a very low quality asset but if you pay less than it's worth chances are you're going to make money so so the book says chapter 3 says the most important thing is value figuring out what the value of an asset is but number chapter 4 says the most important thing is the relationship between price and value so let's assume that you're able to figure out the value if you pay more than that you're in trouble if you get it for less the wind is at your back so um it was very very important then uh to be in an area where the surprises were likely to be on the upside and if you buy the bonds of b rated companies about which there are such low expectations maybe it's easy for there to be a favorable surprise now how can i how can i prove to you that the expectations were low the answer is that if you look in the moody's guide to bonds in those years it what was the definition of a b rated bond quote fails to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment in other words it's a bad investment now i drove here from the airport in my car and if i take you outside to look at my car and i offer to you for sale because i don't need that car anymore when i'm done here uh i'm not coming back if i say to you would you like to buy my car what is the one question you must ask me before saying yes or no price you get an a you get an a so in other words it's a good buy at a certain price it's a bad buy at another price moody is now saying that b rated bonds are a bad buy without any reference to price so in other words there's no price at which a company that has some credit risk uh is is worth investing in and by the way before i turned to high yield bonds in 78 i was part of the bank's machinery to buy the bonds of uh the stocks of america's best companies and i explained to lunch how if you bought the bonds of hewlett packard perk and alma texas instruments mark lilly xerox ibm kodak polaroid aig coca-cola and procter and gamble and if you bought them all in 68 you held them until 73 you lost 90 money why because they were overpriced the average stock since the post-war has traded at 16 times its next year's earnings these were trading at 80 and 90 times why because they were so good ever since this is great companies nothing go wrong so it doesn't matter what price you pay and if you pay 80 or 90 times that's fine and so here we are in my experience again experience as a teacher you invest in the best companies in america you lose a lot of money then you go to the high yield bond business you buy you invest in the worst companies in america you make the most money so it's an instructive lesson if you have your eyes open and and and you learn from experience
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