저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 쉬프는 연준이 인플레이션을 잡기보다 오히려 기름을 붓고 있어 스태그플레이션이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 통화정책: 나스닥 버블 붕괴 후 금리를 1%로 내린 연준은 재정적자(연 약 3조 달러)를 메우기 위해 양적완화를 계속할 수밖에 없고, 대차대조표 축소는 실제로 일어나지 않는다고 본다. 무역·유가: 작년 상품무역적자가 사상 처음 1조 달러를 넘었고 12월 적자도 신기록이며, 유가는 배럴당 92~93달러에서 올해 100달러 이상으로 오를 것으로 예상했다. 기업·소비: 기업은 작년 가격 인상을 충분히 하지 않았고 올해 가격을 크게 올려야 하므로 2022년 CPI가 작년 7%에서 7~10%로 더 오를 것이라 전망했다. 임금 상승은 물가를 따라가지 못하고 자동차·부동산 등 고가 소비는 줄 것이라 했다. 주식 리스크: 소비가 줄면 광고주 감소로 페이스북 같은 기업이 타격을 받고, 필수재 기업(전기·가스·석유)은 상대적으로 버틸 것이라고 봤다. 금 기준 관점: 금으로 측정하면 주식이 크게 폭락할 수 있고, 달러 표시 주가 상승은 착시라고 주장했다. 1930년대식 대폭락은 아니어도 달러가 붕괴해 자산 실질가치가 떨어진다는 결론이다. 투자자는 주식 보유 목적이 결국 소비인데 생활비 상승을 주식 수익이 못 따라가면 빈곤해진다고 경고했다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to top tech and trades channel high inflation is going to stay because the fed has undeniably nothing can do about it and people still don't understand this although the fed is claiming that they're fighting inflation no they're not they're going to keep adding fuel to the fire what the fed is doing right now is adding fuel to the inflation fire so fed monetary policy is going to exacerbate the inflation that we're dealing with after the nasdaq bubble burst following the terrorist attacks of september 11 the federal reserve lowered rates to one percent to encourage the economy it's still low and the fed continues to produce money but the problem remains budget deficits have skyrocketed our yearly budget deficit is currently estimated to reach around 3 trillion dollars per year the only way to finance that is for the fed to do more qe or quantitative easing so even though it's talking about shrinking the balance sheet it's not really going to happen the balance sheet is going to keep expanding but not only do we have this huge budget deficit we have record trade deficits last year we had the first ever merchandise trade deficit to exceed 1 trillion dollars in a single year we also set a new peak in the month of december we have a 100 billion dollar deficit and this deficits will continue to rise consider the price of oil which is currently between 92 and 93 dollars per barrel and it's expected to rise much above 100 dollars per barrel this year the fed is going to be forced to print even more money so while it's pretending it's going to take the punch ball away it's going to continue to spike it but it's not going to be enough to sustain the asset bubble so the change in monetary policy is an important shift to pricks the bubble in tech stocks and momentum stocks but it's not big enough to slow down inflation we're going to have stagflation we're going to have a weakening economy rising inflation and that is very different investment landscape than the one investors have been used to over the past 10 to 20 years because manufacturing must make a profit they will have to pass those additional costs onto their customers however because they have to find a new equilibrium they end up passing on more than the cost every time the company raises prices it does lose some buyers on the margin because we're all sensitive to price start raising your prices you start losing some customers so what happens in an inflationary environment is businesses keep selling fewer and fewer products at higher and higher prices customers that can afford higher prices keep buying and those who can't they go without the products last year though businesses didn't raise prices enough that was the problem because you had the federal chairman and all the economists telling everybody not to worry about these rising costs because they said this is all transitory and so the business owners believe the economist they absorb these price hikes and their own costs because they didn't want to just raise their prices many of these companies who were duped into a false sense of complacency about what was going on now have a lot of catching up to do not only do businesses need to be ahead of the curve for 2022 and start factoring in rising prices but they also need to make up for the old grounds they lost from the previous year so they have to raise prices a lot and that's one of the reasons that rather than 2022 cpi number coming down from 7 last year 2022 is probably going to be higher from around 7 percent to 10 percent wages are on the rise the issue is that they aren't rising as quickly as they should prices are high and some people are refusing to purchase goods car sales are one example car prices have risen dramatically and as a result car sales have decreased real estate market prices went way up and so fewer people can afford to buy people are going to buy cheaper stuff or less things and it's probably already happening it's just going to happen more as the inflation gets worse people need to take care of their needs first before they buy their wants in the case of consumer companies or utilities you have no choice but still got to pay your electric bill unless you want to live in the dark and no matter what you're still going to buy gas so these oil companies are still going to make money now you know there are a lot of these companies that have products it's highly competitive like look at all these streaming stocks one of the places people can easily cut back is just look how many streaming services are you gonna buy facebook you don't pay money to have facebook account but the problem is facebook makes money from the advertisers and if the advertisers aren't selling as much of their stuff because the people on facebook can't afford to buy it advertisers can't afford to advertise on facebook anymore so there's a lot of these businesses that are going to be a lot of trouble when everybody is tightening their belts there might not have another crash like the 1930s but that doesn't mean you don't have to worry because during the 1930s we were on the gold standard in which we don't have that benefit anymore the market can still crash as much as it did in the 30s if you measure it in the price of gold but this time around it's the dollar that's going to crash so if you're only assessing the word of equities in dollars and the dollar loses a lot of value the stock market may appear to be rising if you're six feet tall and i give you a six inch ruler to measure yourself with that doesn't mean you're 12 feet tall i've cut the ruler in half your height hasn't changed it's the ruler that's changed so if the dollar loses a lot of value and then you go and try to price stocks obviously the price is going to go up when you're measuring stocks with money that's worth less gold is an objective measure of value that ounce of gold doesn't change the government doesn't print any gold so if you really want to know what's happening to prices you need something like gold as an arbiter so you can look at it through a lens that doesn't change and if you do that all of these expensive assets will plummet everything is 10 times more expensive in the grocery your electric bill is 10 times higher so if your stock portfolio has doubled but your cost of living has increased tenfold your stock portfolio has lost value since its potential to assist offset your cost of living has been reduced in compared to all the items you want to buy the genuine value of those equities has fallen when it comes to investing in the stock market nobody buys equities because they desire them people acquire stocks in the hopes of selling them for a profit or receiving dividends and then going out and buying things it's the items they're going for stocks are just a way for you to buy more stuff but if the cost of the stuff you want is rising faster than the value of the stocks you hold you're getting poorer not richer if 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