저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 은행권이 2008년보다 더 크게 무너질 것이며 금리 상승 시 정부·은행 부채 부담이 감당 불가능하다고 주장한다. 은행 위기: 무디스의 대형은행 17곳 신용등급 강등은 충분하지 않으며 은행 상황은 평가기관보다 나쁘다고 주장. 정부 개입과 구제금융이 도덕적 해이를 낳았다고 봄. 연준이 금리 통제력을 잃고 금리가 크게 오르면 대형은행이 2008년보다 극적으로 실패할 것이라 예측. 시점은 '더 빨리'(수년 내) 가능성을 언급. 금리·달러: 유럽 위기로 달러와 미 국채로 피난 수요가 몰려 금리가 일시적으로 낮게 유지되고 있으나 오래가지 않을 것. 통화 증발과 인플레 우려로 금리가 급등할 것이며 미 정부는 5~7~10% 금리도 감당 못 한다고 주장. 투자 조언: 중앙은행이 찍어내는 통화(특히 달러)에서 벗어나 금·은을 사고, 신흥국 주식과 더 나은 통화 표시 채권을 권함. 이번 강등은 시작일 뿐이며 미국이 유럽보다 더 큰 위기를 맞을 것. 후속 인터뷰(The Real Crash): 2008년 이후 부채는 GDP보다 빠르게 늘었고 현재 회복은 진짜가 아니라 차입 지출이라고 주장. 0% 금리는 정책에 의한 인위적 가격이며 시장금리로 가야 한다고 봄. 금리가 오르면 미 정부가 이자를 감당 못 하고 주요 은행 다수가 실패할 것. JP모건 20억 달러 손실을 언급하며 금리가 정상화되면 모건스탠리·BofA 손실도 커질 것이라 예측. 시장 토론: 시장은 유럽 뉴스에 좌우되는 상태이며 단기 하락 위험은 있으나 중앙은행이 개입해 주가 명목 상승으로 되돌릴 것이라 봄. 그리스의 유로 잔류는 장기적으로 최악이며 이탈이 더 나을 수 있다고 주장. 독일 국민의 부담 한계와 정치인의 단기 인기 추구를 지적. 경제지표: 리크 샌텔리는 ADP·고용지표 일정과 1분기 GDP 2차 수정치(2.2%에서 1.8~1.9% 하향 가능)를 언급. 빌 스페로폴로스는 시장 조정이 충분했고 정치 변화 후 호재가 올 것이라 낙관. 출연자 전망 요약: 쉬프는 장기적으로 달러 붕괴와 금리 급등에 따른 금융위기를 예측하며, 단기적으로는 중앙은행 개입에 따른 주가 명목 상승을 예상.
다듬은 글
Europe initially reacted well but finished the day mixed and Wall Street today down just a little bit 33 points in the Dow alarm Bells though are also ringing for banks in this country Moody's is expected to announce this week the downgrade of 17 Global Banks including some of the biggest US Financial firms joining us live Peter Schiff president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of the new book America's coming bankruptcy how to save yourself and your country on that optimistic note as always Peter nice to have you back with us thanks for having me on let's talk a little bit about the banks first I know this has been telegraphed that potentially these downgrades could be coming what does it mean for us well first of all I don't think the downgrades will go far enough I think that banks are in a lot worse shape than some of these rating agencies appreciate but we have to understand why is it that banks are in so much trouble and the reason is because of all the government involvement in the banking sector it's the government involv that subsidizes all of their risk-taking the banks are in so much debt because the government has led them down this Primrose path and then we think bailouts are a solution it's just a moral hazard it encourages more of the same bad behavior that government policy created in the first place so I think we really need to get the government out of the banking sector as much as possible but I already believe that they've done so much damage that many of our major banks in this country I believe are going to fail in a more spectacular way than they did in 20 8 as soon as the FED loses control of interest rates and they go a lot higher I think these big banks are going to fail and there's going to be huge losses as a result you're not alone but we we should point out to our viewers that this is your opinion on the way that you're looking at the financial sector right now is there a timeline you have is do you see these bank failures happening soon 5 10 years from now or sooner than that well I think it'll be sooner than that I mean right now we're buying some time based on the problems in Europe because people are so worried about the Euro and the Euro Zone they're taking refuge in the dollar and the treasury market and that is temporarily keeping our interest rates lower and allowing our government to keep on spending and Americans to keep on borrowing and spending but eventually we're not going to be able to do that anymore people are going to be worried about all the money we're printing all the inflation we're creating and interest rates I think are going to move up in a very spectacular way and we are so leveraged we can't handle it not only can't the banks handle it the federal government can't handle it I mean our government can no long more handle a five or a seven or 10% interest rate than can the government in Greece or or Italy or Spain Peter we just had a I just want to point out to our viewers we're trying to get your camera back centered if we can it's always good to have our guests in the middle of the screen and sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't but Peter we we're still listening to what you have to say and and there's been calls you know people on the uh maybe sharing a different opinion uh from you say listen the United States government has to get even more involved in Europe because if we don't get more involved now and jump in uh in whatever way that means and there's a lack of specifics on that then then that's going to just crush us uh 6 12 how can we get involved when we're already broke our government is running a budget deficit of a trillion almost a trillion and a half dollars a year we're drowning in debt all we can do is print money I mean so we're printing all this money right now uh to bridge the gap between what we collect in tax and what we spend so we just going to print even more money and give it to the Europeans how is that going to help let me just ask you real quick CU I have to run you know you're a financial adviser you give a lot of advice out there again it's your opinion but uh what advice do you give to some of your customers and the average person out there on how to protect themselves well I I outlined a chapter in my latest book The America's coming bankruptcy you get out of anything that these central banks are printing particularly dollars I think you buy gold you buy silver you look at some of the emerging economies buy stocks abroad buy bonds from in in in better currencies than the ones that are being run off the printing presses we have a huge financial crisis coming it's not in our past it's in our future and these downgrades in the in the banks this is just the beginning it's going to get a lot worse Europe is simply a precursor of what's going to happen in the United States that's the preview the show the main show is going to be playing out here in the United States on this side of the Atlantic and people had better be prepared for it Peter you give us a lot to think about today that's for sure on a Monday morning thank you again for joining us we love having you and we look forward to having you back thank you all right if you think the economy is improving jobs are growing and the worst is over our next guest says sadly you are dead wrong joining us now the author of The Real Crash Peter Schiff Pete thanks for joining us um what do you mean the the worst isn't over we're not turning the corner things aren't getting better hardly we've actually made all the problems worse you know when I wrote my original book Crash proof how to profit from the coming economic collapse in that book I forecast the bursting of the housing bubble uh the ensuing financial crisis this Great Recession but what I was really concerned about was not that I thought the crash was going to come from what the government would do to try to revive the economy that was The Real Crash it's still yet to come and it is the subject of this new book so you don't think anything has changed that allowed this crash to happen in in the fall of 2008 no the problems are much worse we're much more deeply indebted now than we were then all the problems have been exacerbated and what we have now is not a legitimate recovery all we've done is borrow additional money and spent it and we're counting the spending as economic growth when it's not the debt is growing much faster than the GDP and ultimately we're going to have to pay this money back with interest and the only thing that's keeping us afloat right now is 0% interest rates and why are they 0% well because the it's counterintuitive that you know we keep telling people you know this that that debt clock right there is going to come back and bite Us in the rear sometime but it hasn't done it yet there's no inflation well sure there is and it's the inflation that's helping keep interest rates so low because the FED is monetizing debt it's printing money and buying treasuries see the biggest problem with the US economy is that interest rates are too low interest rates are probably the most important price in a free market they're involved in one side of every transaction they need to be set by the market instead we're setting interest rates the way the Soviet Union used to set the price of bread and because they're too low we borrow too much we spend too much we don't save enough we don't produce enough you think we have to go bankrupt well bankrupt but you you want us to declare bankruptcy well what we need to do we have to let interest rates rise but the problem is when interest rates go up the US government can't afford to pay the interest on the debt let Al the let interest rates rise well the FED is keeping them down yeah but you're saying eliminate the FED then well no the FED just has to let interest rates go up the FED has to stop buying bonds they they set a they set a rate and they set the rate at zero right now so right but that's too low let the market set the rate how how can the rate be zero you said on one hand let the FED set the rate but then on the other hand let the market say it's either one or the other right well the F the FED can still be there and not set rates it can let the market do it or the FED has to move rates higher because rates are much too low nobody can make any money saving nobody's saving so we don't have any legitimate Capital to financi investment we have to borrow it all from abroad but when we let interest rates go up the US government can't pay its debts many of our major banks are going to fail you think that $2 billion loss at JP Morgan is Big waiting to see how much JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are going to lose If the Fed let interest rates go to where they need to go the name of the book is The Real Crash Peter shiff is just getting started the book just came out uh and he predicted everything that's happened before and I hope you're wrong but you seem very confident that you're right now Peter thanks so much thank you Peter we have Bob Pani Rick santelli's with us europacific capitals Peter Schiff is also with us today as is core state's capital advisers Bill speropoulos Welcome All Around Bob pan the energy level High here at the big board today you know we can't even have a nice boring quiet close into a 3-day weekend we're standing here all of a sudden little after 2:00 word comes out uh Dow Jones wire that Bania was getting a lot more money than people anticipated 2324 billion bottom line is uh Market Dro we lost several dozen points on that so this is the problem guys we are just hostages to headlines all of the time and anytime you think we're stabilizing and it's been a pretty good week the S&P is up one and a half% or so uh you get little headlines and you drop you a little bit more little stabilization and Peter Schiff this is exactly what the markets have been focusing on for a while now it's all about Europe right now isn't it Peter Schiff oh I I'm sorry I was say your name for you my mind it's not all about Europe I think in some people's minds it is but you know I think Europe is is really foreshadowing a bigger problem here in the United States but but you know I think there's still some short-term downside risk in the market but I think the central banks unfortunately are not going to allow a substantial collapse in stock prices I think they're going to come in with more money Printing and ultimately you're going to see a reversal and nominal stock prices will rise uh but but it's not going to be good Economic Policy it's not going to be good for the economy that's exactly what we don't need and yeah let's talk about that though I mean Peter what is your sort of expectation in terms of how this play out here a lot of debate on whether or not we'll have a disorderly or orderly exit of Greece from the Euro or do you expect perhaps the Greece stays into Euro you know I don't even know I mean it there several different ways it could play out long term I think the worst thing that can happen for the Euro zone is for Greece to stay there and the and you to have this moral hazard where uh everybody is basically subsidizing everybody else's propac the only way that it makes sense for Greece to stay in that Euro zone is if they could force Greece to to undergo more austerity uh but I think that if if those are the choices the Euro Zone would be better off if Greece left and I think there's more of a long-term threat uh for Greece remaining in the Euro than leaving I think that that that is overblown but I don't know the politics are very strong I mean there's a lot of incentives for politicians in Europe to do what's wrong in the long run in order to appease the voters in the short run that's exactly what we're doing here I mean there's a powerful Temptation for politicians uh to to avoid swallowing the bitter tasting medicine that is necessary to to correct the problem let me let me Bob here Bob you trying to say something there well the people keep I'm picking up on Peter's theme people keep talking about the mood on the streets of Athens Peter what about the mood on the streets of Berlin how how much longer are the Germans going to be willing to write the checks because no matter what scenario I see here the Germans have got to write a big check yeah bills for you they're burning these these Merkel dolls in effigy in Greece that they should be doing it in in in Berlin I mean they never should have signed on to this deal uh to have to pick up the tab for the irresponsible governments in Greece and other parts of Europe they can't do it no more than people in some in some states people in Texas don't want to have to pay for the for the deficits in California who knows I'm wondering if next week the focus returns to the US Rick santel you got some fed speak coming out next week you got the GDP you've got uh unemployment numbers what are you saying ahead of all that well fed speak they're going to be nervous about Europe and hold out the notion of quantitative easing but it's a political Hot Potato so I move that right off it's about two unemployment data points ADP on Thursday instead of Wednesday BLS on Friday and our second look of first quarter GDP on Thursday if you were disappointed with 2.2 looks like we're going to end up with 1.8 or 1 1.9 uh you look at the Chinese stock market you can see the cross trade flows out of Europe are impacting that as well as weak loan demand I'll tell you Maria I I just can't be optimistic even if we are the cleanest dirty shirt it's still not that clean well be that as I think we're the CEST one I think we're dirtier people just haven't figured it out yet you know people say that the problems in Europe are hurting us they're actually helping us because people are so worried about Europe they're buying and they buying yeah let's bring bill in here go ahead Bill what we you have to look forward and I think that U the gloomer and the babble and all the negative stuff has been Center Stage for a long time we've had just about a one-third correction for off of the October lows I think the news gets better going forward there's change Coming to America there's a lot of bullish things the Mambi pambi politicians globally are going to get sent home and talk to this Greek okay eight out of 10 Greeks don't want to leave the Euro because they know the politicians get a ride and the quality of life gets a whole lot worse well if they don't want to leave the Euro Bill why did they vote the way they did on the last election it's a great why do people vote the way they do what not everybody goes out and vote I mean it's pretty clear that the elections in GRE right now the Greeks the elections in Greece right now are a a uh you know a proxy on whether they want to stay in the Euro or not the whether they wanted to bailout money voters want something for nothing that's what all voters want that's what they're voting for for 7 75 look let's the 75% of the people who were ped this week said they would like to stay in the Euro that's what the people are saying the problem I I think what you're saying is that yes they they would like to the idea of saying in the Euro sounds good but they don't necessarily want to take the cuts and the austerity that come
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