저자: ChamathPalihapitiya-자막상발언자명시부족,인터뷰추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 출연자는 단기적으로 주가 바닥이 형성되었고 최악은 지났다고 보며 강세 쪽에 무게를 둔다. [빅테크·S&P500 바닥 논리] 빅테크(Fang) 5개사가 S&P500에서 차지하던 비중은 5월 25%에서 최근 약 20%로 줄었다. 이들 기업의 실적이 부진했음에도 시장이 반등하는 점을 근거로 들었다. 과거 '장군들이 총에 맞으면 바닥'이라는 논리를 인용하며 바닥이 나왔다고 판단했다. [강세 근거·리스크] 실적 쇼크 이후에도 주가가 버티면 악재가 이미 반영된 것으로 봤다. 2023년 추정치도 낮아 기대가 이미 낮다는 점을 강조했다. 우크라이나 충돌 같은 블랙스완급 외생 이벤트가 최대 리스크다. [연준·금리 전망] 연준의 공격적 금리인상 영향은 아직 본격화되지 않았고 2023년부터 나타날 것으로 봤다. 기준금리는 3.75~4% 목표 범위로 2008년 이후 최고 수준이다. 근원 인플레이션은 여전히 상승 중이며 연준은 추가 긴축 의지를 보였다. 경기침체 가능성은 있으나 연착륙 가능성도 언급됐다. [바닥 이후 시나리오] 바닥 확인 후에도 2023년 중 추가 저점(lower low) 가능성은 배제되지 않는다. 비트코인은 연초 대비 횡보 중이며 반등 가능성이 거론됐다. 가상자산 시장은 연준 정책에 따라 움직일 것으로 전망됐다. [종목·자산 언급] 비트코인: 방향 불확실, 단기 반등 가능성 언급 (중립~상승 조건부). 빅테크(Fang·S&P500): 바닥 통과로 강세 쪽 견해. 연준 긴축: 추가 인상 방향, 경기 영향은 2023년 이후.
다듬은 글
many investors are pondering whether this is the right time to buy the dip since the value of cryptocurrencies has dropped dramatically in recent months from record highs to mind-boggling lose as part of a larger crypto Market crisis which also saw the valley of ethereum and cardonophile the price of Bitcoin which previously traded for about 69 000 US dollars per coin plunge sharply in May below the psychological floor of 20 000 US Dollars and only one week in June Bitcoin fell by 30 and by the middle of July it was still trading at about 20 000 US Dollars now everyone is wondering whether the crypto world has already reached the bottom or is the situation going to be worse in the future thank you are going to talk about the investor tremath palhabitia and his predictions about what we should expect with regards to the crypto Market he said that the market will go up after it has bottomed this will be a very educational video so let's now proceed as we have a lot to discuss if you do not know he is the CEO of Social Capital One of the top Adventure Capital companies in the world he is one of the most well-known billionaires of this generation because of his profession and he has some fascinating opinions on cryptocurrency he had already considered the possibility of bitcoin's decline he now has fresh knowledge to impart about the cryptocurrency industry of course it would be better if you hear this useful Knowledge from the man himself hence let's watch his Clips she's throughout the big Tech chart because I think like you guys should see this because I think this is very important for Silicon Valley I mean what's incredible on this chart is that you know when when everybody talks about being along the S P 500 it was always really a proxy for being long Amazon Facebook Google Microsoft and Apple and at the peak you know in May of this year it was still you know 25 cents of every single dollar of the S P 500 were these five companies and you know we always said the market bottom will be when the generals quote unquote get shot you know to borrow Fraser and Gavin Baker and it looks like the generals have been shot yeah and what's incredible is this week every single one of those companies other than Apple really reported pretty crappy earnings they got totally taken to the woodshed the percentage of the of these companies as a percentage of the s p is now you know off by 500 basis points it's down to 20 yet the markets are ripping higher today so I think it's kind of what we talked about three weeks ago like the bottom is kind of in for the short term you know so it's really exciting actually to see I think this is the point where you have to now start to get pretty constructive about where things are going because if this stuff could not bring the market down it's hard to see something other than an exogenous event probably some Russia Ukraine event really having a negative impact so to me I'm kind of like I don't know it seems like pretty bullish due to the fact that their most recent earning reports were all very disappointing these Fang stocks fell considerably in the most recent quarter they even have low estimates for 2023.
you know their Market is no longer in a bull run the worst is definitely behind us according to tremath unless we witness some type of black swan-like catastrophe most likely involving the conflict in Ukraine nothing will make the market worse off of course it is not necessarily guarantee that the market will suddenly turn bullish but he asserts that nothing worse has yet to occur the things that frightened people are now in the past now that we have heard his thoughts and arguments I have some questions to ask do you think that the market has already bottomed or do you think it is still too early to make an assumption about it let us know what you think by sharing your thoughts in the comments section below also please subscribe to our channel so you'll be a part of our growing Community we really appreciate it now there are also other are factors that can affect and events that can affect the market is there any other major incident that might now have an impact on the market let us discuss the FED meeting and the outcomes we can anticipate from it just to be clear while tramath believes that we have bottomed out for the time being that does not rule out the possibility of a lower low in 2023.
he also States unequivocally that the federal reserve's recent aggressiveness is to blame for this he also believes that those impacts haven't yet materialized the results will take time to appear the first signs of this aggression won't appear until 2023. in the final video David Sachs discusses the FED before chamath offers his opinion therefore if you own cryptocurrency this Market may eventually come to life since the Bitcoin has been essentially flat all year we might see a rally but once more the Federal Reserve is the king despite slowing the speed and pace of interest rate increases the FED announced in a statement that more significant rates increases are on the way the massive increase results in the target range for the central bank's Benchmark Landing rate of 3.75 percent to four percent the FED funds rate hasn't been so high since January 2008.
additionally there's a danger that it could start a recession following the meeting fed chairman Jerome Powell recognized that there was still a chance for a soft Landing which would involve slowing the economy without going into a recession the overall rate of inflation is not actually declining despite the aggressive rate hikes core inflation is really still Rising simply by looking at the headline inflation rate for the United States we can see that it peaked at 9.1 percent in the middle of the year just focusing on the previous two August to September 8.3 the FED wants to see a far more dramatic result which they haven't seen yet is the only time they bring it up after that after that the core inflation rate which reached a year high last month was much worse we continue to observe that the FED believes they must mean seeing their combative posture due to the unemployment GDP and the rest of the economy they frequently discuss how the economy can withstand rate increases at their meetings since it is so robust that U.S GDP data accelerated to the positive last year adding a 2.6 percent Pace increase since the economy was Contracting prior to this we did observe two straight quarters of negative GDP the most recent data should boost the fed's confidence and their ability to maintain their strong monetary policy as should a persistently low employment rate in the United States which demonstrates the health of the labor market now this would all affect a crypto Market in different ways of course we can expect that the market will react to the new policies of the fed the crypto Market is set to act accordingly to these monetary policies until then we will always watch and report to you the recent developments and news about the crypto world ive and will be up
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