저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
지정학 리스크(러시아-우크라이나, 중동, 미중 관계)가 경제보다 훨씬 중요하다고 강조. 중국과는 경쟁하되 관계는 공격적이 아닌 개방적으로 가져가야 하며 반도체·희토류 등 국가안보 영역만 보호해야 한다고 주장. 재정적자와 대규모 자본수요(재무장, 녹색경제, 무역 재편)로 인해 인플레이션 압력이 지속될 수 있으며 스태그플레이션 가능성을 경계. 금리 장기 고점 가능성에 대비해 은행 리스크 관리 필요. AI는 리스크·사기 탐지 등 전 사업부에 활용되는 중요한 기술이며 일부 일자리는 감소할 것으로 봄. 미국 경제는 소비자 재무 상태가 양호해 단기 침체에도 버틸 수 있다고 평가.
다듬은 글
I'm Becky quick of CNBC and your host of The Forum I'll be guiding you through exclusive conversations among some of the world's global leaders conversations previously held behind Club doors but today we invite you in the economic Club of New York serves as the premier forum for nonpartisan discussion dedicated to connecting the world's brightest Minds with preeminent public and private sector leaders a nonprofit 501c3 the club is a 115-year-old platform form for the conversations that help shape the future of our world the economic Club of New York brightest Minds critical conversations Catalyst for Innovation I really wanted to talk to you more about geopolitical issues because you really emphasized that in your shareholder letter and I wanted your views on what you felt were the most important most critical geopolitical issues that face our country but also face the bank and I guess you identified China as number one why so you know first of all welcome everybody thrilled to be here again and um you know the geopolitical situation is probably the most complicated and dangerous since World War II if you look at the the kind of the Nexus of the Ukraine war you know 300,000 Russian troops invaded free Democratic Nation on the border of NATO threatening nuclear blackmail has never happened in history uh educating the world that maybe have a nuclear weapon you can kind of take advantage of your neighbors it's affected all Global relationships then you have the terrorist activity in Israel you know which is now you know a little bit of a powder keg in the Middle East we hope these things resolve but a lot of wars that go on for a year or two can last for 10 uh and they can have somewhat unpredictable outcomes but it's also affecting oil gas trade all military relationships and you can see it's strengthening some of America's Military Allies uh and also Al our relationship with China I think that relation very complicated it's made more complicated we're kind of on different sides when it comes to Ukraine uh uh so we you know this is a situation got be careful about the world order after after World War II Brett Woods WTO trade un Etc is kind of being challenged and if this doesn't go the right way you can easily see a world that kind of goes more to a little bit of chaos as people realign allies relationships Etc I'm a little surprised that things haven't gotten worse for oil and gas you know people flying drones and satellites and blowing up north stream one and North stream 2 it doesn't take a lot to send oil and gas prices back to 120 or higher if that happens it's but bad for the climate you know all the climate folks because everyone turns back on their coal plants poor Nations and Rich Nations but it's terrible for poor countries as you know a lot of these countries are kind of struggling a little bit already and so you know we have a dangerous situ situation here and it's far more important than whether the economy you know does a little bit better a little bit worse this year next year I I know they're almost I don't even like talking about them the same breath because one is about the future of the Free World one is about something we're all used to the weather you know things get better and things get worse in the economy and most of us have dealt with that before but speaking about the danger to the Free World there's increasing concern about the access Russia China Iran North Korea yeah and you're you're dealing in that world and you're dealing with companies that deal in that world yeah what are you telling them I you know I think you know if Russia wins or in any way wins in uh in Ukraine you probably will have a splintering apart and maybe even a testing of NATO and that's really dangerous and so you know we have obviously we have to navigate the risk you know we have some risk still in Russia we have obviously a lot of risk in China but I think the the best thing with China is that we should engage tough open mind open eyed you know the America should remember it's in a very good position to China we have all the food war and energy we need got the most prosperous nation in the planet 80,000 per person GDP they actually import 11 millions of barrel of oil a day and about half go the straight Hormuz or through the Red Sea so they're you know past American warships by the way uh they don't have enough food or enough water they still have 40 million people living in poverty the GDP of $15,000 not $80,000 we still have more Innovation are they're catching up and we shouldn't be against that terrible they have terrible demographics so my views we should fully engage with them obviously we should protect ourselves on anything around National Security like semiconductors or Rare Earth Etc but you know we we should engage and for the betterment of the world there's no reason other than Taiwan that you know we have to have adversary relationship with them I've also I don't normally do this in my letter the best thing to protect the United States is have the strongest military and and and any if anyone thinks that the world is a safe place I hope you have lost that notion it's not it never will be and we kind of forget we got lulled into a false sense of security because we had you know an easy couple of years or something like that so and then we got to grow our economy that's the best way to handle everything like our our buring deficit and to get more income to lower income Americans you know and things like that it should grow the economy and so I talk a lot about having growth policies but you talk about you talk about the military and strengthening our military but we're now at a point with our deficit that we're spending more in debt service than we are in defense so do we have the American leadership to address these issues so Neil Ferguson who's a great historian Economist wrote about that whenever that's happened that that country lost its leadership position so I'm hoping there's a difference here you know obviously America's in a different position the the other thing is very important because you know you travel the world people look at American leadership and the thing of the global South and why America and you know and so America Bob Gates writes this great book called the exercise of power the first chapter is called the Symphony of power know that America's overused and misused its military muscle but massivly underused diplomacy development Finance economic getting American companies to do more overseas education uh um information think of intelligence information so there's no one else who can do it so America shouldn't be rude it shouldn't be our way of the highway which we tend to do when we did this Ira act you know very much was in the know violated trade agreements it was very much in the eye you know in the face of allies who said you know that violate trade agreements buy America build America in America of America well we better be a little more polite but most of these nations would you know we have a lot of allies you know and most these nations would like America to take a leadership all if we do it respectfully and we help some of the developing world and things like that so that has to come from America if it doesn't come from America it's not going to come from anywhere else and all these other nations they have to find other people to Ally with militar economically so I do think it's a complex situation would you like to be a part of the conversations at the economic Club of New York learn more about membership the New York City and National fellows programs and other opportunities for engagement in the club at www.on club.org and you're not worried about our polarized electric I don't like the polarized elector I do think and I wrote about this in my letter there is part of a reason for it and I call that kind of the train of the American dream the lower 25% of our society has been left behind their income didn't go up for 20 years they make and people don't realize they make $15 an hour or less for the most part those these numbers are a couple years old they're dying 10 years younger they're the ones who go home to these crime ridden neighborhoods their schools are not doing great half the kids and a lot of the inner city schools don't graduate uh that what what have we done you know years of all these policies we still haven't got there so I have fix for it I think we should like double the earning tax credit but I think we got to lift lift up those parts of society and that will reduce polarization if you travel around America and you go to rural parts or inner cities you know they look at what's going on in DC they they're not that happy with DC they look at that as you know one big thing where everyone gets what they want but not them and you know they they have the more of the drug problems Etc and so we we need to do more and better and that's why I told about we need to grow the economy I that's the best way to help people is to grow this economy share the wealth a little bit lift up some of these disadvantaged communities but your worst case scenario and you mention it repeatedly is stagflation yeah is in fact uh inflation but without growth yeah e e economically the worst case scenario is deflation the worst case scenario is a frin of the free and Western world I mean that that to me is the cican n we can't take our eye of in fact we should be so focused on we should stop doing other things which could be a waste and uh uh but the stack flation I speak about there is you know you this just risk management this is not guessing the future you have to be prepared as a bank for two% interest rates or six or s or eight I have to be I can't sit here and tell my shows well things happen you don't expect you're bankrupt which happened to a couple of Banks and uh and so you got to be prepared for you also why know so if rates go up to 6% but the economy is booming it's because there's a lot of demand for Capital inflation in factors come down that's not so bad but stagflation has the negative effect of no growth inflation uh you know and obviously no growth HS volumes and profits and consumers and jobs and and so you know yes I think there's a chance that could happen again I think there's a huge demand for I look at the future you know so obviously inflation has come down a little bit but you look at the future and again I'm not sure models picked this the extent of the fiscal spending it was $6 trillion do during covid it was 4 trillion of QE and it was now we have a deficit of almost $2 trillion dollar 6% of GDP the highest peacetime deficit ever uh and then the demand for Capital down the road is enormous it's the remilitarization of the world it's the green economy which we think will cost $4 trillion unfortunately some will be wasted uh uh it's it's the the restructuring of trade we don't think it's going to go away but the restructuring itself is inflationary uh you know and unemployment already very low uh and the fiscal deficits it's not just America so ours is far worse than everybody else but everyone did it just about every developed nation everyone did QE we've we never had if you look at the history of the world we've never had QE before so I'm not quite as comfortable with QT as other people and so we let's we'll see how it plays out so I'm hoping for the best but you know we would handle stack relation too well with QT draining what $900 billion dollars of liquidity a year yeah um and then of course higher interest rates do you think companies are ready for longer hire for longer yeah so we had the mini I call the mini Bank crisis you know we we knew First Republic was kind of like the last Domino that had that particular set of problems very concentrated deposits uh too many Securities and HTM and basically an interest rate exposure staring them in the face should never have been allowed I mean I don't know how that type of stuff happens and I blame the banks I I think the regulars also should blame themselves but I I blame the banks CEOs for the most part management teams and so what I said is it's over provided rates don't go up and you don't have a recession if rates go up just think of the 10year bond goes to five or six % and you have a recession that will hurt leverage companies profits jobs wages and obviously if you're a bank with interest rate exposure and you haven't protected yourself you can be heard on that and obviously it'll affect real estate you know and so yeah you can have this kind of double triple whammy affecting some banks so yeah there circumstances which you know it'll look more like the 70s and like what we've had for the last 20 years to interesting you just mentioned that risk management isn't about guessing the future but it's really about trying to to determine how you can survive the W the worst possible situation so if you had to describe the US economy how resilient is it it's it's unbelievable but know if you look at it I mean basic is booming it's been booming for a while you know since since Co kind of before there was slow growth if you look at the economy foot it was very low growth for 20 years and you know if I was a government I'd be looking at that saying why and I think there are a lot of good bad reasons for it you know like regul ations and bureaucracy and stupidity and Ford policies and you know anti-growth Taxation and a whole bunch of different other types of stuff but but if you look at the economy since then you know it's been booming unemployment is hit alltime low it's been under 4% now for the better part of two or three years something like that the American Consumer even if we go into a recession is much wealthier than before Debt Service ratios are very low yeah they're normalizing now and credit is we say it's normalized it's not gotten worse but they have it's still the lowest that's ever been pretty much on record their home prices are up their stock prices are up remember 50% of people don't have you know they don't owe money at all and so even we go to recession the consumer is in good shape but that doesn't mean you can fight off the effects of stagflation or something like that if it gets much worse and so you I I worried that it looks more like the 70s than than we've seen before if you go back to the 70s deficits were half what they are today the debt to GDP was 35% not 100% And so part of the reason I think we had this strong growth is the fiscal spending you know if you and why not spend another $2 trillion dollar and if we did what would happen you all have more money people invest more money people would hire more people and you'd have more growth but it's also quite inflationary and so you got to you have trade-offs there so so far we're in pretty good shape and so far it looks like that soft Landing type of scenario but I'm I'm putting me on the cautious side of that one let's shift maybe towards well maybe something more positive it's also risky but technology yeah and how much will banking be affected by technology AI machine learning a lot you I mean I think the biggest risk that we all fa is cyber by the way this war of cyber and uh but AI first of all the think about techn technology is the thing that changes the world so you just read any history it's why we stop being hunter gatherers people learn about agriculture printing we disseminating knowledge and then of course the steam engine the internet these things have made mankind far better off you know we had 40 million people working on farms in the 1900 now it's 1 million they worked six and a half days a week 12 hours a day now it's 5 days a week you know and and it's why you know you the kids of the people in this room are going to live to a 100 they're not going to have cancer probably so it is the best thing that ever happened to mankind it gets abused airplanes crash pharmaceutical get misused you know sometimes when we have new things it takes a little time for it AI will be one of those big ones I don't know at the pace that's going to happen but we we already have 4 use cases in AI today for risk fraud marketing hedging analysis idea generation agents which take care of problems you know errors when we have errors you know a lot of us take care of AI is both analyzing errors and starting to take actions on them because you know once you fig out what the problem is it can actually fix the problem so it's real so we took a woman we made her head of AI and data and they're related put her on the management team reporting to me and the president of the company Daniel Pinto uh that's how important it is and every business inside has a mirror so you know credit card consumer uh trading all has it it is unbelievable and and it's just starting and you well you mentioned it in 2017 and you're in a sharehold we first started they are we first started using in 2012 okay and we started using for some of these mortgage problems you all knew about so and and then we I wanted to build our own so we started building we have 2,000 people doing it we have 100 maybe even 200 people in research today you know synthetic data NLP you know and there's going to be a million ways to use it big databases small databases you know hedging equities you can't run a large language model because you know there are thousand trades in a split second so you got got to do it much quicker than that it also cost money to run those things like I forgot the number 4 cents or something to run go to Bing and you ask it to summarize a book it costs 4 cents and so you're not paying yet they're going to charge you eventually so it's real uh it's it's going to be used for everything it's going to obviously affect jobs everyone every job and every advocation have a kind of co-pilot that helps you do your job so it make you far more effective productive it will red remove some jobs over time but we I'd like to be ahead of those things you understand them you can re redeploy your people into other jobs and and there will be bad parts okay just like airplanes crash we know AI is being used by bad guys already you know we have extensive you know cyber controls but in cyber will be used in in politics and misinformation uh social media it's already been used extensively to manipulate uh human beings which I think should be stopped if I were the government uh and so I yeah they're the bad attribut but you always have to keep in mind bad guys can use it regardless so you you know you almost have to do it and you got to and the other thing about AI it's not really the technology you have to understand it's just you have to understand how you can use it you've been listening to The Forum by the economic Club of New York a nonprofit 501c3 dedicated to connecting the world's brightest Minds for critical nonpartisan conversations be sure to subscribe now to be alerted to Future new episodes would you like to be a part of the conversation at the economic Club of New York learn more about membership the New York City and National fellows programs and other opportunities for engagement in the club at www.on club.org I'm your host Becky quick thanks for listening
Comments 0