My Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Price Prediction for 2025 | TSM Stock Prediction

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TSMC의 2025년 말 주가 목표를 추정. 2025년 EPS 컨센서스 $8.87(90일 전 $8.36에서 상향), 성장률 26%로 2026 EPS $11.18 산출. 현재가 $187, 선행 PER 21 기준 적정가 약 $235. 가장 가능성 높은 구간은 PER 18~21로 $210~235 제시, 현재가 대비 상승 여지 언급. 지정학 리스크로 PER 하락 가능성 언급.

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01. supplier to some of the largest tech companies in the world including Apple AMD and of course the most notable Nvidia and given nvidia's soaring demand and its soaring stock price Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing is getting a positive effect because of that connection to Nvidia so a lot of investors are asking what do I think Taiwan semiconductor's upside is for 2025 that's what I'll do in this video I'm going to give you my stock price estimate or my stock price Target for Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing stock by the end of next year by the end of 2025 I'm going to share with you all of the numbers I'm using to make that prediction the estimates the assumptions all of those and you can decide for yourself whether or not the estimate is correct too optimistic or too pessimistic so let's get into it is the analyst estimate for Taiwan semiconductors earnings per share in 2025 next year so according ey think its earnings per share will come in at $887 next year that's up from $836 cents where they thought it was going to be next year just 90 days ago so the EPS estimates have been rising for Taiwan semiconductor stock in the last 90 days I also need the company's growth rate the growth rate estimate right now that growth rate for next year is 26% this is the growth rate I'm going to need to forecast Taiwan semi conductors EPS estimate for the year 2026 so Yahoo finance provides us the 2025 estimate I'm going to apply the growth rate to the 2025 estimate to get the 2026 estimate don't worry I'll share with you that calculation in the model in just a little bit all right the next thing I need is the current share price which stands at $187 per share and the forward PE multiple which stands at 21 you can see the forward PE multiple has fluctuated in the last 3 years Rising as high as 30 and falling as low as 10 right now it's trading in the midpoint between those two extremes at a forward PE of 21 all right so now that we have all of the numbers we need we can go ahead and jump into the model so first let's start with the projection for the earnings per share so 2025 the estimate was for $887 it had a growth rate of 26% I'm going to apply that 26 % growth rate to the 2025 EPS to get the 2026 EPS estimate of $118 cents this is the earnings per share that I'm forecasting for Taiwan Semiconductor in the year 2026 I need the EPS for the year 2026 when I'm using the forward one-year price to earnings ratio so let's jump to the right hand side here EPS 2026 estimated at $118 if if you apply the forward PE of 21 to that EPS you'll get an estimated stock price of $235 per share by the end of next year for TSM however the PE is likely to change and fluctuate if it goes higher if it goes to 23 then the stock price could rise as high as $257 per share the PE could also decrease right you've seen a lot of geopolitical tension between the United States China and Taiwan and TSM has been caught in between that whole mess and so increasing geopolitical tension could drive a decrease in the multiple for Taiwan semiconductor stock if it falls to 18 the stock price could go to $21 per share which is still higher than where it is today but if the forward PE were to fall to 15 the stock price could fall as low as $167 per share all right so those are all of the ranges or the scenarios that could happen to Taiwan semiconductor stock but where do I think is the most likely scenario well I think the most likely scenario is a forward PE between 18 and 21 so somewhere between $21 per share or $235 per share to be precise I think the range will be between $25 per share or $225 per share by the end of next year and if you compare that to the current stock price at $187 per share you'll notice a nice little upside here for Taiwan semiconductor stock in 2025 of course these are my estimates only and I shared with you where I got all of the numbers from so utilize that in your own decision making make adjustments as you see fit this is for information purposes only and you shouldn't use my calculations as precise calculations as there are a lot of estimates and assumptions Incorporated here I'd be curious to hear your thoughts let me know what you think about this price Target do you think it's too low do you think it's too high and what's more interesting is not whether or not you think it's too low or too high but to me what's more interesting is why you think that's the case right um why you think the price is too low or too high I'm curious to hear your thoughts in the comment section bel