저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 미국 주식(특히 빅테크) 보유를 피하고 고가 기술주는 전량 매도하라고 권한다. AI는 역사적 대혁신이지만 현재는 사상 최대 투자 버블이며, 수개월~수년 내 붕괴 가능성이 있고 고평가 성장주는 70% 하락도 가능하다고 본다. 비트코인은 결국 0으로 간다고 단정하고, 스페이스X 기업가치 스토리도 버블 신호로 지목한다. 과거 버블 붕괴 후 경기침체 사례(1929, 일본 1989, Nifty50 1972)를 들어 평범한 투자자는 저축 여력과 방어 전략을 준비해야 한다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
What advice do you give for the average person that's looking to invest their salary or their wages? Don't own US stocks. That's a simple strategy that you can act on. What about S&P 500? No. Really? Yeah. And if you have a big position in US technology stock, my personal advice would be to sell them all.
I'm an investor in SpaceX. Good luck. SpaceX is such a fabulous BS story and we can go into that. Crypto? No. Why? It's an unnecessary piece of nonsense that facilitates nothing except criminals moving money so they can't be seen. Do you think Bitcoin's going to go to zero? Yes, it will certainly go to zero.
So, how many years have you spent investing? 60 years. And what's the most amount of money you've ever managed of other people's money? 165 billion. And one of the things you're famous for talking about is this idea of bubbles. Yes. And bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. So, the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world.
The same with the internet. and everyone wanted to put their money in and so they overinvested. But this is the problem. Eventually they bust. And if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past, you find that it's followed by really tough times, a miserable period for the economy. And the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.
And now we're in the biggest investment bubble that arguably has ever occurred. AI. Are we on the verge of a collapse with AI over the coming years? The next few days, the next few weeks, the next few months, but certainly the next few years. So if you're not someone that has a huge amount of savings, what kind of strategy should they be adopting when an economy starts to get bad and there's an economic bubble collapse?
So I will go through everything, but you will not receive this advice from investment advisers because they'll lose a lot of business. Would you be thinking about the country you live in at this moment in time? Absolutely. Is there any countries you wouldn't live in? I think I have to refuse to answer this on the grounds that it might tend to incriminate me.
Oh, okay. So you're saying don't live in the United States. I've just moved here. Why not the United States? This is super interesting to me. My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch the show subscribe. And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribed from the channel randomly.
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Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show. Jeremy Grantham, your firm managed up to 165 billion at its peak, what we call AUM, assets under management. So, you know a lot about money. You know a lot about investing. How do you sort of self-define your expertise? Because you traverse so many different subjects through your work.
So, if I said to you, you know, how do you introduce yourself professionally? What is the answer? I can't think I ever do introduce myself professionally, but I think of myself as specializing in a longerterm horizon than most people and trying to look at a higher and higher level of abstraction. What is really going on here and what are people missing?
I've discovered over decades that humans are incredibly short-term oriented and they have an enormous predisposition to optimism. They're looking for optimistic news in everything. They're looking to avoid unpleasantness. The idea that you can have steady compound growth is ridiculous. One of my few heroes, Kenneth Baldinger, an economist, he said, "The only people who think you can have compound growth on a finite planet are madmen and economists," which is so accurate.
Economists simply believe you can have growth always, and everything comes down to just price. One of the things you're famous for talking about is this idea of bubbles and we're living in a moment where everybody's talking about the subject of artificial intelligence and everyone's getting very excited by it.
Some people are getting very pessimistic about the impact it will have on society. I wanted to start there because it's it's an area where there is rife optimism on one side of things. Um but there's also a lot of money plowing into the market which is I I guess in your view making things prone to collapse.
What's your view on artificial intelligence? But you said you're good at understanding what people are missing. What is it that people are missing? Well, first of all, let me say I think artificial intelligence is right up there with the railroads. It's one of the defining great ideas of the last couple hundred years.
It's going to change everything. And that is critical if you if you mean to have a bubble. People think that a bubble is a mainly because it's a scam and nothing could be further from the truth. The great bubbles always occur around the very most important ideas. So the railroads, everyone could see that it would change the world.
And everyone wanted to put their money in and everybody put their money in. They overinvested and even though the railroads were a spectacularly powerful idea, uh the railroads uh collapsed as stocks and everybody lost a ton of dough. The same with the internet. And then out of the wreckage, the railroads changed the world and and the internet changed the world.
What we have to remember is that in 99, Amazon went up six or seven times. In the crash, in the tech bubble, it went down 92%. As I like to say, check it. It's such a remarkably large number. And then out of the wreckage, it inherited the retail world. And uh that's that's how it works. The greater the idea, the more obvious the idea, the more money goes in and the bigger the bubble and the bigger the bust.
And are we on the verge of a collapse with AI? And when I say verge, I mean over the coming years. If you look at the data, it would be compatible with history for the peak to be very soon. Everything is in line. This is, I think, the biggest investment bubble in American history. The indicators of a pure crazy euphoria like SpaceX are all over the place.
SpaceX defines as its addressable market a quarter of the global GDP. You know it talks about endless opportunities mining asteroids. It will be in 50 years people in a 100 years people will look back and tell stories about SpaceX and its prospectus like they tell stories about the South Sea bubble.
you know, an enterprise of such enormous value, but it cannot at this time be revealed. I want to keep on this train, but for the viewers that don't know your experience, we should probably pause and just tell them your experience because that's the reference point, but also al also gives you credibility and authority to speak to this.
What have you done with your life? Well, I got into the investment business in 1968. There were very few serious people in the investment business. There were no mathematical models. There were the kind of relatively failed sons of rich people who would work for JP Morgan. And then over the next 10 years, it began to get a little more serious.
Tro Price introduced the idea of growth stocks. A few of us introduced the idea of value stocks. And a few years later, at my first firm, Battery March, we really introduced the idea of small small cap. It hadn't existed before that. And for people that don't know, a small cap is investing in smaller companies.
Yes. And a value stock is simply one that looks cheap. Did you invent the index fund? There were two or three of us separately. I don't think we knew of each other. How many years have you spent investing? Uh 60 approximately. 60. And what's the the most amount of money you've ever managed for other people in a calendar year?
Yes. 165 billion. I had a two partners, Mayo and Van Ottolo. And when the smoke cleared, you know, I'd made a lot of money, over a billion dollars, personally. Personally. And how much? And paid tax on all of it. Oh, good. [clears throat] And how and how much money does your firm still manage today of other people's money?
It manages uh 85 billion. 85 billion. So, are you a billionaire? I'm generally referred to as a billionaire, but that's only because they count the money you give away. Because I've given over 90% of my billion away to a foundation. Oh, really? Yeah. To which foundation? It's called the Granthm Foundation for the Protection of the Environment.
We invest a lot of our principle in green tech to help combat climate change. And you're 87 years old. And I'm 87 years old. You've given 90% of your money away to your own foundation that's focused on green tech. Yeah. Maybe 95. Yeah. Wow. Okay. So, coming back to this point that we were talking about, a lot of people won't even know what a bubble is.
I think you've done a good job of explaining. A bubble is when everyone gets excited, they all see something obvious, they plow their money in, the stocks go up, and then if you look at the graph that's in front of you there, which shows his the history of asset bubbles, eventually there's a big collapse.
Yeah. And you're saying that we're the collapse is on the horizon. Yes. And what does that mean for the average person? What's going to happen? What's going to happen is the high-f flyers will probably come down a lot. The high flyers, the stocks that have gone up the most, AI and the more exciting stocks with the biggest moves historically would be expected to come down the most from these unprecedented levels.
A 70% decline would not be unexpected. So a 70% decline in the in the stock price. Yeah. And you have to remember the tech bubble, the NASDAQ, which is an index of the growth stocks came down 82%. It is far from unprecedented to have these major declines. And the biggest bubble in history was in the Japanese stock market in 1989.
Back then, Japan seemed to rule the world. All the technology, all the Toyotas were kicking bottoms in General Motors and so on. And everyone bragged about their 12-in Sony TV in the kitchen and the quality, etc., etc. Little things you put on your belt to play music. They were all Japanese. Mhm. [clears throat]
And uh for a second, Japan sold for more than the US in '89. And it it got to 65 times earnings, which which means for every dollar of earnings, you have $65 of market value. And uh the US went to 35 in the tech bubble of 2000. You could argue depending on how you do it that it's 35 or 40 today, but it's not 65.
So we have seen a much bigger bubble in Japan. And what happened? It went up and up and up and then it came down for 20 years. 20 years. 20 years. They talk about the last decade, but when you look at it closely, it looks more like a lost 20 years. So, for the average person, what do they feel and how does it impact them when there's a market crash like the one that you're forecasting?
The high-f flyers will lay people off and and a lot of people will feel less rich. And as you acquire u money in the stock market a small fraction of that 2 or 3% is spent and in reverse it goes back and people feel a little bit poorer they spend a little less. So the economy tends to be under some stress and if you look at the great bubbles breaking of the past you find that it's followed by really tough times.
1929 is followed by the great depression that lasts for several years and of course there are many other factors that go into that but it started with the crash in the market uh which was in the end down about 80% or more and then the next one was called the nifty50 because it was the 50 great companies like IBM and Coca-Cola and that was in 1972 it peaked it declined by 65% if you adjust for inflation the recession associated with that was uh just about the worst since the depression.
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