저자: WarrenBuffett&CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏과 멍거는 비트코인을 생산적 자산이 아닌 투기적 게임으로 보며 강하게 부정적이다. 핵심 주장: 비트코인은 임대료나 식량 같은 실물 산출이 없고, 다음 사람이 더 높은 가격에 사야 수익이 나는 구조다. 버핏은 누군가 전 세계 비트코인을 25달러에 준다 해도 살 이유가 없다고 말했다. 가격 전망: 1년, 5년, 10년 뒤 가격이 오를지 내릴지는 모르겠다고 했지만, 가치가 증식하거나 무언가를 생산하지는 않는다고 확신했다. 명확한 가격 목표나 방향 예측은 없다. 근거 비판: 거래 과정에서 수수료 등 마찰비용과 사기 위험이 크고, 자금은 사람들 사이에서 이동할 뿐 새로 생겨나지 않는다고 봤다. 규제·리스크: 멍거는 비트코인이 연준 체제와 국가 통화 시스템의 통합성을 훼손하므로 '사악하다'고 했고, 중국이 비트코인을 금지한 것을 미국보다 현명한 판단으로 평가했다. 제도적 리스크를 강조한 발언이다. 종목·자산 언급: 비트코인이 주된 대상이며, 다른 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 방향 발언은 없다. 출연자 전망: 버핏은 비트코인이 결국 0으로 갈 가능성이 높다고 봤다('stupid' 항목). 멍거는 대중의 반발에 대해 농담조로 넘겼다.
다듬은 글
I do think that I think what's going on definitely will come to a bad ending now if you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin and you offered it to me for 25 I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it um I have to sell it back to you one way or another I mean they have the same people but it isn't going to do anything believe me and we don't own any we're not sure that they will never have a position in them we're asking Charlie said Bitcoins like rat poison you were asked about that comment and you said well it's probably more like rat poison squared well I like crypto currencies a lot less than you do and so to me it's just dementia it's just disgusting it's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out well I shouldn't answer any questions on the subject but I will you know there's there's all kinds of people watching this that are long Bitcoin and there's nobody that's short and nobody nobody wants their windpipe stepped on it I don't blame them I don't like people to step on my windpipe but I would say this that if all the people listen if the people in this room uh owned all of the Farmland in the United States and you offered me a one percent interest in it and you said from one percent interest in all the Farmland in the United States uh pay me by our group hey it says bargain price 25 billion dollars I'll write you a check this afternoon 25 billion now I own one percent of the Farmland if you tell me you own one percent of the apartment houses in the United States and you offer me on entrance all have a one percentage of all the apartment houses in the country and you won another 25 billion or something I'll write you a check it's very simple now if you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for 25 dollars I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it um I have to sell it back to you one way or another I mean they've had the same people but it isn't going to do anything the apartments are going to produce rental and and the Farms are going to produce food and uh I've got all the Bitcoin and I'm I'm back where whatever his name was who may or may not have existed was you know the seniors if I've got it all he could create a mystery about it but everybody knows what I'm like I mean so if I'm trying to get rid of it you know people will say well uh you know why should I buy some Bitcoin right I mean why don't you call it buffer coin you know make your own or something what do something but I'm not going to give you anything for it and you'd be right incidentally but that explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got now net if you look at it a lot of commissions have been paid and there's I mean there's all kinds of frictional costs that are very real that somebody is paid to a bunch of people who facilitate this game but whatever one group of the public has taken out or one group of owners has come in from other people I mean it's other people have entered the room and they move money around but but no money has there's no more money in the room it's just changed hands with a lot of maybe fraud and costs involved and you know a whole bunch of things you lose you know you forget the numbers or you get the equation they uh um you can do that with a lot of things I mean it's been done throughout history uh certain things have value that don't produce something tangible I mean you can you can say a great painting them probably will have some value 500 years from now may not but the odds are pretty good that if it was a big enough name at some point there will be a few things I mean you know you can uh you can find something for him and somebody wants to sell you a pyramid or something and you can charge the viewers or you know it'll be around a long time and and won't produce anything but but but uh people will find it interesting to go there because I read about the parents but basically assets to be that value they have to deliver something to somebody and uh uh and there's only one currency that's acceptable and I'd say I mean you can come up with all kinds of things we can put out Berkshire coins or you know we put up Berkshire money or anything like that but uh we get in trouble I guess if we call it money but uh in the end this is money and and there's no reason in the world why the United States government currency people prefer literally there's 2.3 just under 2.3 trillion just of these little pieces of paper floating around some places seven thousand for every man woman a child in the United States and of course most of them probably are in the United States who knows but this is the only thing that's money and anybody that thinks the United States is going to change the way they let it Berkshire money replace theirs you know it's out of their mind I mean so anyway uh with those few deficiencies uh um you can whether it goes up or down in the next year or five years ten years I don't know but the one thing I'm pretty sure of is that it it doesn't it doesn't multiply it doesn't produce anything it's it's uh it's got a magic to it and people have attached Magics to lots of things I mean the goal in Wall Street pretty magic you know we are not an insurance company we're a tech company well they're an insurance company but a dozen people or so I've raised a lot of money they just said just don't pay any attention to the fact that we sell insurance we are a tech company well in the end they wrote insurance and overwhelmingly they've lost a lot of money since then make up things that work well and getting money from other people and in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid an evil and made me look bad in comparison with somebody else and Bitcoin does all three and and the first place stupid because it's very likely to go to zero the same but it's evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System and the national currency system which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and so on and third it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China he was smart enough to ban Bitcoin in China with all of our presumed advantages of civilization we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China yeah and when five percent of the people of the country get mad because we've said what we've said today just remember Charlie spoke last and was the most laughs
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