저자: 광교곰 · 한국인
요약 보기
반도체는 4차 산업혁명의 핵심 하드웨어로 중요성이 커질 것이며, 메모리(삼성전자·SK하이닉스)와 비메모리·파운드리·장비 전반이 필요하다. 최근 시장은 급등락 조정 국면이지만 장기 투자자에게 좋은 기회로 보고, 개별주보다 반도체 ETF(SOXX 추정)를 분할 매수하는 전략을 제시한다. 자신은 해당 ETF를 보유 중이며 추가 매수 계획이라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Gwanggyo. Lately, real estate transactions are sluggish, and the stock market is repeating daily cycles of crashes and surges. Such high volatility indicates that the market is not doing well. There is no need to be overly happy just because prices have risen significantly, nor is there any need to be overly sad about losses.
Therefore, this kind of market is bound to continue for the time being. In any case, since prices rose too much in 2020 and 2021 following COVID-19, a correction is inevitable. It cannot be helped. Today, I would like to introduce you to the US semiconductor sector, specifically TFN. Many of you may already be familiar with this group, but I will explain it as a group primarily composed of semiconductor stocks.
You all know why semiconductors are important, but it is necessary to understand it a bit more. The US President recently visited Korea; usually, when they come, they visit US military bases or DMGs first, but this time, unusually, he seems to have gone to the Samsung Electronics Pyeongtaek Campus first.
That shows just how important the semiconductor era is right now. We call this the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, right? AI, rovers, autonomous driving, the Fourth Industrial Revolution—all of these are part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. A... ah... artificial intelligence. It is called that.
It means that the computer does all the work on its own. In other words, does this 44th Industrial Revolution mean an era where we do not work and machines do the work autonomously? Then, specifically, what is it? In fact, semiconductors are doing the work. Of course, the driving force is provided by electricity and communication, but anyway, humans are idle while semiconductors ultimately do the work.
A: Almost all of this is made up of semiconductors, and the same goes for robots. Robots are just lumps of metal, but what moves them is actually semiconductors. Artificial intelligence is also semiconductors. Autonomous vehicles operate on their own; this is also actually semiconductors. Conventional cars actually use a lot of semiconductors these days because they have many automatic functions.
But in the future, autonomous vehicles will essentially become blocks of semiconductors. B: Data is also mainly software, but semiconductors are crucial for a lot of depth. So, in this era of the 4th Industrial Revolution, humans are essentially idle while machines do the work, and what moves those machines is the semiconductor.
Therefore, semiconductors are incredibly important. I am not saying you should buy semiconductor stocks right now, but ultimately, the importance of semiconductors is bound to increase more and more. Ultimately, semiconductors are the core. In fact, if we were to distinguish between hardware and software, most people might think that software is more important.
However, without the advancement of hardware, there is no advancement in software. If you look at the market capitalization figures for the US—3, 4, 5, and 2—almost all of them are software companies: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and even Tesla. But for software to function properly— enabled by autonomous driving and self-learning capabilities—and become AI, it requires hardware support.
Therefore, hardware support is essential for software development. The US market capitalization of 1,345 is largely comprised of software. Ultimately, however, hardware needs to be expanded for software to develop and flourish. For this reason, while hardware has n't exactly been sluggish in the past, I believe it will become even more crucial going forward.
As for the semiconductor industry, as you are likely aware, there is memory, which is where Korea excels. Naturally, Samsung Electronics is the strongest, followed by SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and Japan's Key. These are the companies that excel in this field. I will explain later why the Samsung issue was omitted.
Next, the non-memory sector has a much larger market size. Non-memory refers to application-specific semiconductors. These are primarily temporary or storage devices. Since they are essentially CPUs, they act as the "brain" of the computer. However, while this sector is largely standardized, standardization for this sector is actually very difficult, which is why there is such diversity.
Companies like Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and NXP are involved. NXP is primarily known for automotive semiconductors, while Qualcomm is a trusted name and is famous for communication chips. Next, foundries produce these application-specific semiconductors. Taiwan's TSMC is the largest and most famous, followed by many other global foundries.
Furthermore, producing these semiconductors requires a lot of equipment. So, there are companies like Applied Materials, SKL's ASML, and Japan's Canon. There are also many others involved in semiconductors, chemicals, and other sectors, but since those account for a small portion of revenue, I am only mentioning the important ones.
And of course, for Samsung Electronics, memory is still its main focus. They are currently working on the non-market sector and System RC, and their foundry business is also expanding significantly these days. So, there are people who argue that Samsung Electronics is inferior to OT, Assets, and MC, and reporters often write articles easily stating such claims.
However, Samsung Electronics' main focus is memory; non-memory and ellipses have only recently started. Therefore, Samsung Electronics does all of this. On top of that, they even handle smartphones. So, Samsung Electronics must be viewed as a comprehensive IT company. The companies above are mainly semiconductor firms.
So, whether memory is more promising, non-memory is more promising, foundry is better, or equipment is promising—there may be slight differences depending on the timing, but the point is that all of these are necessary. Since Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are listed domestically, you can easily buy them anytime.
Then, if you are buying overseas stocks, what should you buy? Well, AMD has risen a lot recently, and NBD also rose significantly but is currently showing a slight decline. The other stocks have also been steady. TSMC has risen a lot recently, and ASL is trending well these days. But... all of this...
4 It’s hard to let go, and even if you buy a stock, it might not perform well. Intel was good in the past, but honestly, it’s been struggling lately. Qualcomm was also very good at one point, but it’s not in a great situation these days either. So, my thought yesterday was that it’s certain the semiconductor sector has failed.
As for what you should buy, I recommend the Ssakssu TF (US ETF). It mainly includes Broadcom, Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Texas Instruments, NXP, ASML, and Qualcomm. So, actually, I hold Samsung and Samsung as well. Of course, Ssakssu has risen 720% over the past 10 years, but compared to the beginning of the year, it has actually hit all-time highs and is now down about 28%.
So, Ssakssu has also declined significantly recently. I bought Ssakssu last year, and even the stock I bought cheaply is currently in a bit of a negative state. But I have no intention of selling it; I plan to buy more at an appropriate time later. So, anyway, the semiconductor sector is definitely a strong contender.
As for which stocks to buy—those that aren't going up—for example, ASML looked really good to me. You could buy this, but honestly, while it is undoubtedly a promising stock, it is currently very expensive. Therefore, choosing to buy a single stock like this is quite difficult. We can think of Samsung Electronics' Armor as something easy to understand domestically, but it is actually very difficult to predict how these stocks will perform in the future.
Of course, buying individual stocks rather than ETFs yields much higher returns when they are performing well—that is obvious. However, since you cannot know which ones will perform well, if you have personal information or conviction, it is fine to pick one of these and buy it. But if you do not know, it is best to buy in bulk for the time being, and I believe there is a possibility of further correction.
So, it is better to buy in installments right now. I believe it can go back up once the market correction ends to some extent. So, I view it positively, or rather, I see it as a potential failure. I also plan to buy more in the future. Of course, if you discover a better stock among these or are convinced of it, you could buy that stock as well, besides the ETF.
But actually, Intel doesn't seem very promising right now, AMD has risen a lot recently, and Nvidia has also recently... With the stocks rising so much, there is n't a specific one I particularly want to buy. ASML is the only one, but its market capitalization is actually too large compared to its revenue.
And as for Culcomb... well, Culcomb is n't exactly in a good situation right now either. So, I have started to focus on sweeping up all four stocks. The market is currently in a correction phase, but in a way, this is a very good opportunity for long-term investors, especially those who have recently started investing.
If you buy last year, you end up like this now. So, please consider this a good opportunity; if you consistently accumulate good stocks during times like this, it could turn into a large sum of money later on. Please keep this in mind.
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