저자: GaryBlack · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 EV 시장 둔화·머스크의 트위터 인수 관련 이슈로 하락했으나, 중국 공장 생산 증가와 신제품(사이버트럭, FSD v11, 저가형 EV) 등 촉매가 있어 장기적으로 상승 여력이 크다는 주장. 2030년 EV 1,060만대 생산, EPS 42, 주가 약 $160(시총 약 4.5조달러) 추정. 머스크 지분 매도와 주의산만이 단기 리스크로 언급됨. 자막이 중간에 끊김.
다듬은 글
Did you know that market performance isn't the only factor contributing to Tesla's stock price decline even though it is still declining? The EV market has always been troubled and this has affected not just Tesla but also a number of other EV manufacturers as the market continues to be impacted by a macroeconomic downturn.
Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers have reported slower growth and deliveries in November with some even reporting sharp drops. Could this indicate more serious issues for Tesla? Gary Black, a longtime investor, has some thoughts. Hi everyone, welcome to Tesla tomorrow. Again, for a considerable amount of time, Gary Black has been a fervent supporter of Tesla and has expressed his opinions regarding the company's valuation and the reasons behind his belief that its stock will continue to rise in value.
The managing partner and co-founder of Future Fund, who also owns Tesla stock, recently tweeted that the company's stock price has dropped by almost 51%. Although the company's 2023 earnings predictions have only decreased by 5% over the last 3 months due to production cuts in China demand yet. Black has pointed out that the latest Twitter scandal has caused a significant compression in Tesla SB ratio.
Yet if appropriate action is not taken, this might have additional detrimental effects on Tesla. How does Gary Black feel about the shares of Tesla? Keep watching to find out. Before we go any further, remember to like and subscribe for more posts like this one and to be informed of all Tesla news. Gary Black claims that Tesla stock may appear to be suffering from all the negative headlines until Elon Musk decides to resign as CEO of Twitter in a recent tweet.
The Tesla investor listed a number of variables that might have an impact on the company's stock price in the future. According to Gary Black, Elon Musk cannot sell more Tesla stock until the final queue for earnings report is made public at the end of January if he wants the company's stock price to rebound from the decline.
Last month, Musk sold almost 22 million Tesla shares in 29 different deals totaling about 3.6 billion. only a few days after concluding the $44 billion acquisition of Twitter. The president of Tesla also said that he had sold 19.5 million shares of the company for $3.95 billion, although Musk had earlier stated that he was done selling Tesla stock.
The CEO of Tesla continued to sell more shares and it is unclear if he will do so going forward, particularly given the significant changes taking place with Twitter and the growing demand for more capital and attention. Musk stated in a meeting with Twitter staff during his early days as CEO that the company needed to increase sales and make more money than it spent in order to achieve meaningful growth.
Without this, he continued, there might be a significant cash flow deficit that could lead to bankruptcy given Musk's concentration to his new business. Tesla is not entirely secure and might continue to receive less focus and commitment from the CEO. Gary Black claims that Tesla's stock price may now be significantly impacted by Musk's appointment of a new Twitter CEO.
Mus claimed that he overlooked investor worries when he just took over the social media firm and that the automaker stock price has recently seen several short spikes with many declines in between. Musk has had to sell a number of Tesla shares as a result of this new endeavor which has also taken up a large amount of his time and reduced his ability to concentrate on Tesla.
But given that he is still the CEO of Twitter, Musk might be starting to realize how detrimental his new venture is to Tesla. Recently, the owner of Twitter asked users in a light-hearted poll whether he should resign as CEO. The majority of respondents, roughly 57.5% to the survey, which closed a few hours later, demanded that the billionaire resign from his position.
Over 17.5 million users cast ballots in this survey, indicating that more than 10 million people no longer support Musk as Twitter's CEO. Gary Black also thinks that a rise in Tesla's production could have a big effect on the price of the company's stock. Tesla may be able to meet its Q for delivery goal of 430,000 vehicles if its Chinese factory can boost production numbers to about 100,000 vehicles per week.
Due to its increased production capability, Tesla delivered a record number of cars from its Shanghai Gigafactory in November. Demand shouldn't be a major issue for Tesla, even though it is a top concern for its investors. Gary Black expressed his surprise in a series of follow-up tweets that Tesla's margin stayed up despite Elon Musk spending most of his postacquisition time at Twitter rather than Tesla.
He went on to say that he thinks Musk's latest Twitter poll may have been spurred by pressure from Tesla executives to resign as Twitter CEO or face legal action for not operating in Tesla's best interests. Black said that with shares of Tesla trading at a two-year record low, the company is currently to cheap.
Since Musk finalized his agreement to purchase Twitter in late October, the market value of Tesla stock has dropped by over 125 billion and the company's shares have fallen 55% so far this year. Since then, the price of Tesla stock has been steadily declining. Gary Black nevertheless believes that Tesla has a bright future in spite of this.
After he forecasts that Tesla will sell 20 million cars at an average selling price of $50,000 with a 30% operating profit. Black previously spoke with American investor Ron Baron. He estimates that at a 15x price to earnings ratio, this would yield $300 billion in operating income, translating into a valuation of $4.5 trillion.
Ron Baron does not include Tesla's robo taxi, the Optimus bod, batteries, or anything else than EVs in this estimate. Regarding Baron's projections, Gary Black said that Ron Baron's estimate of $4.5 trillion for Tesla over the next 10 years is realistic and that despite their differing methods, this prediction is consistent with his own.
He claimed that his estimate for 2030 is consistent with Baron's Tesla valuation of $4.5 trillion in 10 years with an EPS of 42 and an estimated 10.6 million Tesla EVs produced in 2030. He predicts a 30XP ratio or around 1,00 to $160 per share or about for.5 trillion. Gary Black asserts that Tesla is in a strong position to generate more income in the future.
However, this is dependent on a number of factors that could raise the price of Tesla stock over the course of the upcoming year. The investor in Tesla mentioned asterisk the introduction of the Cybert truck asterisk the broad distribution of Tesla's FSD version 11 asterisk a $10 billion share repurchase during the first quarter of the year and asterisk the development of an affordable EV in 2022 and 2023 as possible increases in the price of Tesla's shares in the near future.
Other possible catalysts, he continued, are the establishment of multiple additional gigafactories and the hiring of a different reputable Twitter CEO Black recently said that in order to reach its target of producing up to 20 million EVs annually by 2030, Tesla intends to grow its network of gigafactories with an output objective of 1.5 to 2 million units per factory.
He continued, Tesla could probably construct at least 10 to 12 gigafactories. In a recent open letter to Tesla's board, Gary Black suggested that the business may think about a large long-term stock buyback of at least $10 billion because Tesla shares are currently selling at their lowest forward P ratio.
He went on to say that by doing this, Tesla can increase returns and raise the value of its shares. Gary Black acknowledged that Tesla still confronts many dangers in the future. Even if he thinks these triggers will soon assist the company's stock price increase, the Tesla claims that if Alon Musk
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