저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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결론: 거시 환경은 예측 불가능하고 무의미하며, 소비재 기업은 경기 변동에 상대적으로 강하다고 주장. 거시 변수에 대한 입장: 소비 경기 둔화 시 소비자는 지출을 줄이고 저가 브랜드로 옮기지만, 공급사(서비스·원재료·부품)는 그보다 훨씬 큰 타격을 받으므로 기업 자체는 시장 전체보다 거시 사이클에 더 덜 노출돼 있다고 설명. 예측 불가능성: 사건 자체도 예측이 어렵고, 시장이 그 사건에 어떻게 반응할지는 더 예측 불가능하다고 강조. 2020년 팬데믹을 미리 알았더라도 주식 노출을 어떻게 했을지 자문하며, 대부분은 공포에 매도했을 것이라고 지적. 사건·타이밍·시장 반응을 모두 맞혀야 한다고 주장하며 자신은 이를 시도하지 않는다고 밝힘. 2020년 포트폴리오 변경: LVMH, 나이키, 스타벅스를 편입. 세 종목 모두 팬데믹 공포 시기 주가가 크게 하락했고, 이들은 원래 투자 유니버스에 있던 우량 기업이었음. 같은 시기 소독제·가정용 청소용품·일반의약품 등은 과도한 패닉바잉으로 포트폴리오 내 다른 종목이 급등했는데, 이는 일시적이라고 판단하여 상대적으로 저평가된 우량주로 교체. 종목별 근거: 나이키는 자본수익률 약 30%, 연 10% 성장, 온라인 판매에 가장 잘 적응한 브랜드. 스타벅스는 도시 중심 매장 폐쇄로 타격을 받았으나 자본수익률 20% 후반, 연 7% 성장, 중국 2위 시장에서 경쟁사 루이싱커피가 회계 사기로 드러나 중국 성장 경로가 명확해졌다고 평가. LVMH는 여행 소매 및 중국 이벤트 중단으로 하락했으나, 명품 의류·액세서리·시계 포트폴리오가 최고 수준이라 편입. 리스크·조건: 그는 특정 시점 가격 방향이나 단기 목표가는 제시하지 않았으며, 장기 보유 관점 유지. 출연자 전망: 거시·단기 주가 예측은 시도하지 않으며, 장기적으로 우량 소비재 기업 보유가 유효하다는 견해.
다듬은 글
hello today i have with me my colleague kyle caldwell collectives editor interactive investor and someone who needs no introduction terry smith founder chief executive and chief investment officer at fundsmith which includes the uk's largest investment fund fundsmith equity hello terry delighted that you could join us today morning how much attention do you pay to the macro backdrop especially given your ownership of consumer goods and consumer services companies does it influence your decision making in any way at all or is it completely irrelevant it's completely irrelevant in my view i mean i'll say a couple of things about it one is when people talk about consumer goods and they often take it a bit further than you did in your frame your question i'm saying well the problem is if there's a macro downturn it's very dangerous to be that close to the consumers which my answer is that's right the only thing more dangerous than being close to the consumer is not being dangerous the consumer because in a consumer downturn clearly consumers change their habits a bit they spend a bit less they trade down in brands they go to a label et cetera et cetera so it's not like they're non-cyclical there's no such thing as nonsensical right so they're affected but if you think they're cyclical you should see what happens to the suppliers right and when these guys you know see what happens when these guys find that the consumer trades down a bit so you know a very small change in consumer consumption which affects our companies a bit has a massive impact on the providers of services ingredients components uh into those companies so we are more immune not immune more immune to the macro cycle than most the rest of the market with those companies the other thing to say about it is i don't see much point in trying to take notice of it because it's impossible to predict and when i say impossible ripped i don't just mean the events are impossible to predict although i'll maintain they probably are i think the impact on the market is possible markets are a two-order system in order to get what your prediction is about the future right you need to know to predict the events but how the market will react in i wrote this in our annual letters here imagine that we were doing this call one year ago and you knew i was a guy who could foretell the future and i said there's going to be a pandemic and the reaction to it will close down the global economy to such a degree there'll be a 10 foreign gdp in one quarter in the largest economies in the world like america right and you knew that was true what would you have done with your equity exposure a maintained it b bought a bit more you know c run for the door i i've got you in c mostly i've got most people in c you'd have missed out on an above average return last year in the msci in equities how does it say it's like there's an old joke about the man who wanted to make a fortune and uh and he prayed that what he would find one day walking down the street by some miracle of time travel was next year's newspaper and he did but the trouble is he got the news page and what he really did was the stock page right to get these things right you've got to predict the events the timing of the events and the rate the market will react good luck i'm not going to even try it a couple of changes were made to the fun last year um lvmh nike and starbucks were all added were those additions made to take advantage of the share price weakness at the height of the covert 19 market panic and while of all the companies that fell sharply in the first quarter of last year did you invest in those three the only short answer is yes um we they were companies in our investment universe we covered them they gave us exposure of assault we didn't have before or touch upon that in a moment and in the case of nike starbucks they had 40 share price falls at the same time as other things in our portfolio were riding high on the on the panic buying of things like disinfectants at home cleaning products and over-the-counter medicines and we thought the latter effect the panic buying of disinfectants basically was likely to be a temporary phenomenon and whereas we had these very good companies we thought which were temporarily disadvantaged in share price terms so we took advantage always something happening versus something else that we have to have to think about in these regards so yeah look why those i mean an awful lot of people stocks had very sharp falls but we're not likely to be buying too many airline stocks aren't we uh it's not not not likely to be on our list of things to buy so it's got to be a fall in something that we want to own we know we want to up briefly running through the nike world's leading sports apparel retailer and maker of trainers company with about a 30 return on capital been growing about 10 per annum and probably if you look at the the market research the consumer brand that's most adapted to online sales and so obviously equipped to prosper notwithstanding the events of last year or even because of them starbucks we didn't have anything in the qsr area in portfolio anymore clearly very big hit by the uh the closure of their city center sit down uh facilities and uh again a company with high 20s return on capital probably seven percent random growth pretty good stuff and of course whilst all this was going on it had something that very positive that happened to it which was completely ignored which is its second largest market in china and its biggest competitor in china latin coffee was exposed as a fraud by these market events so it's basically got a pretty clear pathway to faster growth in china as a result of that so that one lvmh didn't have such a big thought but nonetheless we thought we were never going to get better opportunity than last year's events the closure of travel retail and events in china we like the luxury goods area we think we know a bit about it because of our exposure to it through cosmetics businesses and drinks businesses but we had nothing that was exposed directly in the apparel accessories jewelry and watches area and so we thought the best portfolio of those brands out there is the lvmh portfolio so that's why we bought you
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