저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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첫째 결론: 영상의 핵심은 단기 시장 방향은 아무도 맞히지 못하니 걱정 대신 장기 보유가 낫다는 주장이다. [공포와 예측의 역사] 1950년대에도 대공황 재발, 핵전쟁 공포가 있었지만 그 10년은 주식시장이 좋았다고 주장한다. 1980년대 유가 폭등(4달러→40달러, 100달러 전망)과 이후 급락, 중남미 채무 위기, 중동전쟁, 일본 닛케이 붕괴 전망 등 과거의 비관 예측들이 대부분 빗나갔다고 설명한다. [단기 예측의 한계] 경기침체 원인은 주식시장 붕괴가 아니라 경제 악화와 연준 금리 인상이었다고 본다. 금리·통화량 등 거시지표를 근거로 한 단기 예측은 쓸모없다고 지적한다. [시장 하락 빈도] 96년간 시장이 10% 이상 하락한 적이 53번, 25% 이상(약세장)은 약 6년에 한 번이라는 통계를 제시한다. 단기 방향은 모르지만 8년, 16년, 30년 뒤에는 훨씬 높을 것이라는 장기 낙관을 밝힌다. [1987년 사례] 1987년 10월 폭락 당시 주말 휴가 중 손실을 겪었으나 단기 대응은 불가능했다고 회고한다. [출연자 전망] 대상 자산 중 개별 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없고, 시장 전체에 대해 장기 상승을 전망한다.
다듬은 글
welcome to money attitude there's always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to do well in the stock market questions whether you have the stomach for that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about I grew up I went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s the decade in the 50s this is big Theory Depression was caused by a stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of Americans own stocks in 29.
we have this big time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market the economy went down the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1851 this is only one of about eight depressions since 1850.
but people in the people thought the only reason we got the Depression was World War II and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a Great Depression I never understood that adjective in front of depression now you ought to be crummy depression or bad depression but it's a Great Depression I never quite understood that one the uh so people weren't buying stocks in the 50s because they thought another Great Depression is going to happen in addition people were very scared about nuclear warheads and nuclear war the 50s people are building solid shelters stocking canned goods there's something about going to Vermont building a fallout shelter putting canned goods in it that you don't buy Minnesota Mining or you don't buy you some good I mean just the syllogism just doesn't work out the gym buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer with your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks doesn't seem to work out that way you know and I remember in the 50s I mean I remember literally in classes I was in elementary school in the 50s and they'd come in they'd have one of these Airaid drills somebody to yellow hat with them they'd blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then I says I don't think this is going to do a lot of good you know yeah but people are worried about a depression in nuclear war in the 50s and then I mean the WarHeads they couldn't do much damage back in the 50s now one of these stand countries you know these kakistan and gazakistan all these stand guys that have spun off these these Cleveland building spin-offs from them so they're doing the uh the uh they didn't lead it there's a cold deal with somebody else had sacks in the group the uh uh every one of these little countries has that war has to blow the world who's built a fallout shelter there you know we stopped worrying about it I mean there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade this century except for the 80s only slightly better days only slightly better people they expect a lot we had an okay it wasn't a great decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and uh stock market was terrific uh do you bring an oil went from four to 40.
remember that remember that period oil went from Florida 40. and the expert centers can go to 100 and all the countries in the world are going to go bankrupt and then in the big Banks go bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and you're gonna wind up selling pencils and apples you know the uh well I want an oil went from 4 to 40 and the experts said it was going to go 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's going to go to four and we have a depression if you believe it again you know the uh I remember when the money supply was going too fast they said we're gonna have depression that was going too slow we have a depression remember the LDC debt remember the lvc that all the banks our banks were very smart they land all their net worth to Zimbabwe and Botswana and Bova Solana and all these countries Chile a lot of times they can't pronounce is Chase Manhattan and chemical and manufactures Hanover these counties were doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country it's like I just found out the other day that a term for somebody that's overweight is laterally challenged yes laterally challenged but these are LDC debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we have a depression in the Middle East was going to war remember that one the Middle East around the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and Market crashing would have depression and Japan was going to work another one Japan was kept all the assets and they were going to buy a bonds and we're gonna have depression within three years the Nick nikai dollar gone from 40 000 to sixteen thousand the banking systems in trouble and people said Japan was going to collapse and would have a depression I mean people on their prayer list the other day they eliminate crippled children Mother Teresa they're praying for Japan I mean you know it's a country with a 15 savings rate you know in some bizarre you know commercial real estate global warming uh you know and I think it's the older you get the more nerves you get about these things I think it's very valuable I think while younger people are better investors is that not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children I think if you don't have any kids you gotta rent some kids for the weekend get a seven year old and ask him if he knows about the money supply you know how fast it's going ask him he knows about the shape the yield curve is the wrong shape of the yield curve or that we're 48.3 months into the eggnog recovery and the average recoveries last 52.3 Bills you know ask an eight-year-old if they know about that a-rolls have a very high expectation about the next 20 years that's what you need to do the more you get away from major holes the more you wait for 11 goals the more you start reading these crazy things you read over the weekend the uh in fact 1955 to 1985 the stock market went up a grand total of a thousand points but it was down 800 on Mondays so it's not it was there for up 1800 on non-monthies it wasn't an accident the stock market went down October the 1987 was a Monday people on the weekend become economists in portfolio strategies and they're both they take their lunch on the way to work you know at the fact I knew very well the market was going down in October of 1987.
uh Dave Elson remembers you that because my first vacation is going to take in six years and we started with Ireland and uh the state all these little cottages and play golf and I left on Thursday after the close Detroit markets down 55 points which wasn't a good start but it was down 55 points we go over there and because of the time zone we're able to do what we want to do and put down a pork and called in the market was down about 118.
I said to Carolyn if the Mark goes down on Monday we've got to go back or we're already here so uh as we stay for the weekend so as you know the Mark went down 5008 on Monday so I flew home I think from 13 billion to 9 billion in two working days and I uh it was a Trend here is not positive like I could do something about it yeah but this time when they called they wanted to say what's next door right now well he's on the 10th hole he's even part of the front nine but you know he's in a trap right now this could be a double bow this could be a poor double bogey right here could blow the entire front nine right here you know this is not what they want to hear you know it uh so I have no idea when the Market's gonna go down and uh no idea when it's gonna go up I'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago it was eight thousand uh I had no idea about this very surprising me but I'll guarantee you the market will be a lot higher than 15 years it'll be a lot higher than 25 years what it's going to do the next one or two years I don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down in um Springs they've made a billion dollars or they know anything about interest rates is it interest rates you could be right five times in a row 10 grand you could have two billion it's not that many people with 2 billion there's a lot of people predicting interest rates do you ever think about that one yeah just five times where I can roll on 10 grand too bad it's a if you write sometimes row you can have the GMP of the United Kingdom you know it's a big number at the uh so I don't worry about that I know we've had uh 96 years a century and the Market's Fallen 53 times 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years ago 10 decline of the 53 declines 15 1-5 have been 25 percent so 15 and 96 years but once every six years Market Falls 25 percent that's we call a bear Market you know and it's going to happen I don't care I would love to know I obviously would be very useful to know what's happened it doesn't make a difference to me Corbin provides me a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years from now that's what I deal with
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