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why are we all suffering from inflation today well there's only one reason that anybody suffers from inflation and that's because of the government government is created by inflation it's a creature of government in fact it's simply a stealth way that the government taxes us because inflation by definition is the expansion of the money supply I mean to inflate literally means to expand people normally think about prices but you can't expand the price it's the money supply that expands but when you increase the supply of money you diminish the value of that money and now more money is required to buy goods and services and so the price of those goods and services Rises to reflect the additional money so it's the increase in price is merely a result of the inflation that is created by government specifically the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve is expanding the money supply but the government is ultimately spending that money supply into circulation when it sends out checks without collecting tax revenue right you you have these big budget deficits where does the government get a lot of the money to spend if it's not collecting it in taxes and it's getting it from the government that is simply creating it out of thin air now what you just said is so logical and so obvious and so in a salable why doesn't the government recognize what it's doing or is it doing this intentionally well certainly the government doesn't want the public to know that inflation is created by government because then they might oppose it obviously because it's a tax they want to blame inflation on the public on greedy corporations gouging their customers on OPEC for raising the price of oil uh speculators for trading in Commodities some sometimes even maybe greedy unions demanding higher wages the government wants to point the finger at everybody but itself and you know part of the problem is inflation sometimes instead of causing prices to go up it prevents them from falling and so we don't actually see the harmful effects of inflation because you don't realize how much lower your cost of living would otherwise have been absent government created inflation because the beauty of capitalism uh what little we have left in this country is that capitalism is a force that leads to abundance that leads to efficiencies and economies of scale and so normally in a capitalist economy the cost of goods and services is going down and that means our standard of living is going up because we can afford to buy more stuff but when the government creates inflation oftentimes it prevents the those benevolent price declines from happening but we don't complain about it because we don't realize the benefit that we never enjoyed so if prices go up by two percent but they should have gone down by five percent the government says oh we have two percent inflation but we know we have seven percent inflation prices are seven percent higher because the government inflated the money supply than what they would have been had the government not created the inflation in the first place so so however how does the government tax people by its inflationary Behavior well the government needs money to spend and it has two ways of getting that money one is the honest way it can take it from us through taxation right where the government literally takes money out of our paychecks so we have less money to spend or they can persuade us to loan them the money which again we take money that we could have spent and we loan it to the government and the government spends it instead now of course that represents a claim on future taxpayers which are ultimately going to have to pay taxes to the government so the government can pay me back the money it borrowed but in either those two ways taxation or legitimate borrowing money is sent from the private sector to the government and then the government puts it back into the private sector so there is no net increase in the money supply but there is a net reduction in my personal money supply because money that I send to the government cannot be spent by me but I have less to spend so I get less stuff the other way that government can pay for spending is just by printing money and then it gives that newly printed money to somebody else to spend it but when that happens even though the government didn't take my money the government took my purchasing power because now the people who got that newly printed money they go out into the marketplace and spend it they compete with me me to buy goods and services and that drives up the price of those goods and services and that additional price basically is the equivalent of a tax so let's say the government takes 10 percent of my money in taxes and now I have to reduce my spending by 10 because I only have 90 percent of my money so I buy less stuff but if the government leaves me with all my money but just prints up the equivalent of ten percent of my money and gives it to another person and now that person goes and buys goods and services and the price of those goods and services go up by 10 percent I now have to reduce my spending by that same 10 percent because I don't have an unlimited amount of money things now cost more so I end up in the same place regardless of whether the government takes my money or my purchasing power the difference is when the government takes my money I know who to blame right that you raise my taxes but when they steal my money through inflation I'm confused especially when and the government is lying to the public about why prices are going up or in fact they're pretending they're not going up by using the CPI which doesn't even capture the real extent that prices are going up so I don't even know they're going up if I believe the government but what I do know is my standard of living is going down because you know I'm not able to afford as much stuff with my income but I'm not blaming government and I'm not taking my frustration out at the polls that's what the politicians don't want you don't like to raise taxes because the voters don't like paying higher taxes but if they steal their purchasing power through inflation the voters don't know they're getting robbed and they may still continue to re-elect the people who are robbing them when I was a senior at Princeton there was a young kid who lived across the hall from me and his name was Jay Powell today that young kid I see you laughing it was a nice guy when he was 17 and 18 years old today is ruining the economy as the chairman of the Federal Reserve how can he say with a straight face that inflation is transitory when the government is trying to borrow trillions yeah well apparently he stopped using the word transitory uh so I don't know what he's using now but he still expects inflation to come down I mean if you look at the fed's projection of interest rates by the end of 2023 the FED still expects rates to be below 2 percent now how could that be how could rates be that low If the Fed is actually committed to fighting inflation because even if you believe the government's methodology for tracking prices prices are rising seven percent right now well how are you going to do anything about seven percent inflation when your interest rates are lower than two percent you've got negative real interest rates greater than five percent you're not gonna make any Headway fighting inflation unless you have real a positive real interest rates which means if inflation is seven percent you need interest rates of maybe eight percent nine percent I mean as Paul volcker I mean he's not alive anymore but you know they didn't take rates up to 20 you know for the fun of it right rates went up there because your inflation was 13 and people thought it was going to get even worse and so the FED had to get in front of the inflation curve well Powell is still way behind the inflation curve that curve is accelerating now and it's clearly going to accelerate more as the size of the deficits get bigger and bigger and the FED is then required to print even more money to monetize it now it's not legally required to do it in fact it should refuse to do it that's what the FED is supposed to do but unfortunately the FED does congress's bidding and whatever deficits Congress runs the FED is happy to monetize them in fact the FED is encouraging the government to run bigger deficits specifically so it can monetize them so don't think about cash in terms of the yield because you you're not going to get any just think of it as giving you some optionality because you could take that cash if the Market's tank and now you can benefit from the collapse you can buy stocks cheap well I got a better idea instead of cash use gold because inflation is seven and a half percent again it's 15 but let's just use the government numbers seven and a half percent if you stay in cash waiting to buy Bargains in the stock market you're losing seven and a half percent while you wait and if you wait all year you've lost seven and a half percent of your purchasing power instead of keeping your dried powder in cash where it's actually getting pretty wet how about if you store it in Gold that is a much better place to be if you don't want to be in stocks because you have the same optionality in Gold you can use your gold to buy stocks in fact I think it gives you greater optionality because as stock prices are going down gold prices are going to be going up at a minimum to offset that 7.5 percent inflation
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