The clock is 'striking midnight' for Tesla and Elon Musk, analyst Dan Ives says

요약 보기

테슬라가 최근 6년 중 가장 어려운 시기이며 중국 EV 시장 악화, 모델2 지연, 성장 전략 부재로 '자정이 지났다(midnight broken)'는 긴장 국면. 다만 장기 자율주행 스토리는 유효하고 매수 의견 유지. 2030년 무운전석 자율주행 전망, 다음 주 컨퍼런스콜에서 모델2 확정·저가차 전략·향후 6~12개월 로드맵 제시가 필요하다고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. One analyst, who we'll talk to next, still maintains his "buy" rating on Tesla, but says it's a sell-off for Elon Musk for many of the reasons you just listed. So to learn more about this, we want to invite Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities. Dan, it's nice to see you here. So, I was just reviewing your recent note that you posted this week.

02. You say that midnight has broken for Elon Musk, and that Tesla is now experiencing, I quote, a "category five storm ." Where are we going next? I think we'll find out on Tuesday because this is probably the worst period I've seen, I would say, in the last six years for Tesla. And patience is running out.

03. And you see from an investor's perspective, and of course many have already given up, but the long-term story is still relevant. And that is why we remain optimistic. But without a doubt. I mean, this is a tense moment, and there could be darker days ahead if Musk doesn't lead the call like the grown-up in the room and provide some vision and direction with a lot of questions remaining.

04. Dan, it's nice talking to you. Let's dwell on this concept of the "adult in the room" because a big problem for Tesla is that fundamentals don't always match up with what Elon Musk claims about the company's deliveries and performance. I know you travel to Asia often to see what goes on “under the hood” at some of these manufacturers.

05. What can you tell us from your experience on the ground that might not make the headlines or come out of Elon Musk's mouth to investors? Look, right now , I can tell you firsthand, the electric vehicle market in China—it's like a horror movie. "A Nightmare on Elm Street," and whatever you choose. That was bad.

06. Now this has obviously become a huge obstacle for Tesla, which is actually a key part of growth, right? Regarding the situation in China. I think investors need to hear what the strategy is for correcting this situation. Are they going to support prices? And most importantly, it's Model 2 . You need Model 2 to have that growth story for the next 18, 24, 36 months.

07. It can't just be about autonomy in 5-6 years. And I think that's a really critical point that they need to realize, and he needs to voice that during the conference call. Dan, what are you hearing or expecting regarding the Model 2 production timeline? And if it doesn't go according to plan, then, more specifically, what does this downside risk look like ?

08. I mean, if they don't make the Model 2 and go straight to Autopilot, it would be like standing on the edge of the Grand Canyon and looking down. The point is , it's scary, because when Tesla talks about two waves of growth, the second wave involves the Model 3, Model Y, and of course some other models that they're going to introduce, but right now the problem is the Model 2.

09. You can't go to full autonomy right away. Of course, some have reported, and that's what I mean when I say the clock strikes midnight, this is a defining moment for Musk. He has to get through this category five storm, like he did in 2018, 2020, and other years. Otherwise, it's not just " trust me," because I think that's what's disappointing right now: the Cinderella story on the magic carpet has turned into something akin to a horror show, especially in the last three or four months.

10. Analysts say, and we hear from sources, that Tesla's future really depends on implementing that self-driving technology that you mentioned. How likely is this? Listen, autonomy will be key. But we won't see driverless cars without a steering wheel until 2030. And think about the regulatory requirements in this area.

11. It looks great in PowerPoint and science fiction, and we believe in autonomous vision. But in the near term, it's about growth. What does free cash flow look like? How to reverse the growth trend? How to reach three, four, five million units? The only way is with a car costing up to $30,000, the Model 2.

12. Again, for a product line that hasn't had an update since the Model Y, and Cybertruck production remains limited. This will not become mass market. And therein lies the problem. It's almost as if Apple said, " Okay, iPhone 14, then iPhone 15, iPhone 16. Hey, just wait for iPhone 24. Stay tuned." This probably wouldn't work too well for Apple, Sachin.

13. But that's the difference between a tactician, a legend like Cook, and what we're seeing with Musk, because the last few conference calls have been like a comedy show, and a bad comedy show at that. So, let's talk about what you think is more realistic in terms of shipment figures and gross margin. What do you think would be more realistic to expect from Tesla in the coming quarters ?

14. Give real data, they didn't provide forecasts, right? So tell me what the margin could be. There will be a lot of expenses. At what level does gross margin stabilize? What supply figure is realistic? Is it 1.95 or 2 million? What does growth look like? For example, name two or three years' worth of goals, and that could be an analyst's day.

15. And they also need to have an AI day. De Musk should also reaffirm his commitment to maintaining AI initiatives at Tesla. Remember that threat that obviously irritated many? And this is a huge problem. True. We could discuss power of attorney in Delaware and moving to Texas. But right now there are many questions that remain unclear.

16. That's why investors, and I hear it all day long, say, "It's too much risk when there's no pilot in the plane." And they don't want to see Ted Stryker as a pilot. So, Dan, very briefly. You sound quite pessimistic. You still recommend buying these stocks. What would have to happen for you to change your rating?

17. Look, next week they need to essentially confirm the Model 2. Confirm the creation of a low-cost car. Provide a strategy for the next 6, 9, 12 months. It can't just be "trust me, autonomy will return to you in 2030." That's why you see so many people giving up because of the fears and the many reports around that, along with the cost cutting that was, you know, pretty painful for a company that, in theory, should be in growth mode.

18. Okay, Dan. Thanks, as always, for joining us and talking about the Mets in the background, as always. We appreciate it. Thank you very much. Dan Ives of Wedbush.