저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 'How Countries Go Broke'를 바탕으로 국가 부채 사이클(건전화폐→부채 버블→정점→디레버리징→새 질서 5단계)을 설명한다. 부채/소득 비율, 이자율 대비 성장률, 부채상환부담, 저축/준비금 등 위험 지표를 제시하고, 미국은 사이클 후반부에 있을 수 있다고 본다. 긴축·성장 촉진·부채 재조정 등 해법은 모두 트레이드오프가 있다고 언급. 부채 위기 중 자산가격 급락을 저가 매수 기회로, 인플레 대비 금·부동산 투자 아이디어를 일반론으로 다룬다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone and welcome back we're doing a deep dive today uh into something that might seem a little bit intimidating at first oh how countries can end up in financial trouble ah we'll be looking at excerpts from Ray Doo's book how countries go broke okay and uh one of the really interesting things about doio is that he's not just like an economist he's also a hugely successful investor who uses these same ideas to make investment decisions interesting so there's some practical stuff in here for us to uncover what I find so interesting is that Doo really connects the dots between how people act with their money and the things whole countries do right he says that just like when people overspend on their credit cards countries can get into a debt squeeze if they borrow more than they can pay back so's not just about like numbers and budgets there's like a human side to it too yeah doio calls this pattern the big debt cycle and what's really wild is that he's found that these Cycles have been going on for centuries often leading to like the downfall of Empires yeah Dalia's research shows that these Cycles aren't just random things that happen right it's about changes in how people think what governments do and the shifts in global power if we can understand these Cycles we might be able to see risks coming and make smarter choices about our money okay so how does this big debt cycle actually play out Alo breaks it down into five stages he does right he starts with what he calls sound money okay it's the ideal situation right when debt isn't too high growth is healthy and things are going well it's kind of like the Goldilocks phase of a country's finances yeah not too hot not too cold everything's just right exactly yeah but uh then things start to get a little uh a little too good oh we enter this second stage the debt bubble uhuh all of a sudden credit's really easy to get yeah and it's super cheap right this encourages people to take risks and speculate which drives up asset prices to Crazy levels think about the doc com bubble back in the late 90s yeah that's a perfect example of this stage yeah that was a time when everyone was super excited and speculating like crazy companies that weren't even making money were worth billions of dollars right it felt like the party would never end it did though yeah it did all bubbles eventually burst they do leading us to stage three the top yeah the Music Stops things change and the economy takes a dip right credit gets tighter asset prices fall and the part's officially overh but it doesn't just go back to normal yeah it starts a chain reaction that leads to a difficult process Doo calls deleveraging and this is where things get really messy huh yeah unfortunately stage four this deleveraging is when all that excessive debt really comes back to bite right debt burdens get too heavy and you start to see defaults restructurings okay and sometimes even currencies losing their value it's a time of big economic and political instability kind of like we saw during the 2008 financial crisis right so we've got this buildup of debt a bubble that pops and then this painful unwinding of all that leverage right but then what happens eventually things settle down okay and we get to stage five A New Beginning okay a new economic order starts to form and sets the stage for the whole cycle to start over over again so it's not just going forward in a straight line it's a cycle that keeps repeating throughout history it does yeah and while each cycle might have its own unique details right the basic patterns stay pretty much the same Okay so we've got this big picture view of how these debt Cycles work mhm but where do central banks fit into all of this they're supposed to keep things stable financially right they are but um central banks have a really important role in managing these circles yeah but how much they actually influence things is Up For Debate they try to keep everything running smoothly right but sometimes the things they do can actually make the problem worse it's like trying to steer a huge ship in a storm but the waves just keep getting bigger exactly yeah central banks use this thing called monetary policy to try and control the cycle okay early on they can change interest rates to affect how much people borrow and spend right but as debt levels go up mhm mhm they often have to do more drastic things how like printing more money okay and buying up government debt which is called debt monetization this brings up a question a lot of people have could a country even a really powerful one actually go broke M and if so how technically a country that controls its own currency can't really go bankrupt in the usual way okay it can always print more money to pay off its debts right however there's always a an e eics right what's the catch the problem is that printing too much money causes inflation right which makes savings and Investments worthless think about what happened in viar Germany mhm or more recently Venezuela right those are really good examples of what can happen when a country's finances spiral out of control exactly yeah while printing money might seem like a quick solution right It ultimately makes the whole economy less stable so it sounds like figuring out where we are in this big bet cycle is crucial it is but how do we do that what signs should we be looking for well one key indicator doio talks about is the debt to income ratio okay this basically Compares how much debt a country has right to how much money it's bringing in okay as this ratio goes up it gets harder to manage that debt without taking on even more yeah which can create a kind of vicious cycle yeah it's like trying to outrun your own shadow the faster you run the faster it chases you exactly another important factor is how interest rates stack up against economic growth okay if interest rates are higher than the rate of economic growth right it means the debts growing faster than the economy can keep up with got it so it's not just the total amount of debt it's also how quickly it's growing compared to the economy's ability to handle it that's exactly right and then there's this thing called Debt Service relative to income right Debt Service is basically the payments you got to make to cover both the interest and the principal on all that outstanding debt right it's not just about the overall size of the debt but also how much you're firing over every year just to stay afloat so it's like trying to manage your household budget yeah when most of your income is going towards paying off credit cards and Loans yeah a great analy doesn't leave much room for anything else and finally Doo really emphasizes how important a country's savings or reserves are okay compared to its debt level right if a country's got a big stash of savings yeah it acts like a cushion against any unexpected economic shocks right like an emergency fund exactly like an emergency fund for a rainy day but if a country has used up all its savings yeah and it's deep in debt it's going to be really vulnerable to any economic crisis that comes along absolutely by looking at all these indicators we can kind of get a sense of how healthy a country's finances are right and whether they're on a sustainable track okay so let's bring this back to the US now sure we know that the US has a lot of debt it does based on Doo's framework where do you think we stand in this big debt cycle it's tough to say for sure right but considering everything we've been talking about yeah it seems like the US is probably in the later stages of the cycle okay the debt to income ratio has been going up for decades right interest rates have been kept artificially low yeah and the government keeps running these budget deficits that doesn't sound very reassuring it is a bit concerning yeah but remember these Cycles can take a long time to play out okay it doesn't necessarily mean a financial crisis is right around the corner so we have some time to figure things out yeah we do but what steps can we take to like reduce the risk and put the US on a more like solid Financial path well there are a few options but they usually involve some tough political decisions right one option is what's called austerity measures okay which basically means cutting back on government spending that sounds pretty painful though it can be no one wants to see important programs get cut you're right austerity measures can be unpopular yeah and they can even make things worse if they lead to a sudden economic downturn okay so what else is there another option is trying to boost economic growth right which would increase tax revenue okay and make it easier to manage the debt so finding ways to make the economy grow faster help lighten the burden it would yeah but achieving sustainable economic growth is tricky yeah there's no easy fix for that okay so we have austerity which is tough and boosting growth which is also hard to do are there any other options what about this debt restructuring thing that Doo talks about debt restructuring basically means renegotiating the terms of existing debt okay like extending the repayment periods or lowering interest rates got it it's a way to try and make the debt load more manageable so it's kind of like going back to the bank and asking for a better deal on your mortgage in a way yes yeah but debt restructuring can get complicated right and it can affect a country's creditworthiness it sounds like there are no easy answers here no not really all of these options have downsides and trade-offs that's the challenge with dealing with national debt yeah it often means making tough decisions and trying to balance competing goals Okay so we've talked about the risks of too much debt yeah and some possible ways to deal with it right but Doo also mentions that these debt Cycles can create investment opportunities right how does that work good point while dead crises can be really bad for a lot of people they can also create opportunities for investors who understand what's going on okay for example during a deleveraging phase right asset prices often plummet yeah this can be a chance to buy assets at a discount okay for those who think the market is overreacted so it's like finding those hidden gems that everyone else is overlooking exactly because they're too busy panicking yeah another strategy is to invest in things that tend to do well when there's inflation okay like gold or real estate makes sense if printing money is one way to try and manage a debt crisis right those assets would hold their value better than a currency that's losing its buying power you got it but investing during times of economic trouble is risky of course it takes careful analysis risk management and a long-term Outlook so it's not just about blindly throwing money at anything that looks like a good deal well you need to understand how the market works yeah and have a plan for dealing with the risks absolutely and I think that's one of the key takeaways from Doo's work whether you're an investor a policy maker or just someone who cares about what's going on yeah understanding these Cycles can help you make better choices and maybe even take advantage of opportunities that others miss all right so we've covered a lot today we have the mechanics of these debt Cycles the warning signs of a potential crisis and some possible solutions right but doia also digs into the historical context of these Cycles what can we learn from looking back at history history is full of examples of Nations rising and falling yeah often tied to these same dead Cycles we've been discussing okay Delo gives us a bunch of interesting case studies right that show these patterns and the consequences we've talked about all right so let's hop in the time machine okay what are some of the historical examples that really stood out to you one really striking example is the rise and fall of the British Empire okay in the 19th century right Britain was the top dog yeah economically and militarily their currency the Pound Sterling right was the global Reserve currency so kind of like the US dollar is today exactly yeah but as Britain kept racking up debt to fund their empire and Wars MH their economic power started to weaken okay by the early 20th century right the pound sterling wasn't as important anymore yeah and Britain's power on the world stage had shrunk it's a classic example of how too much debt can weaken a nation even one as powerful as the British Empire right what other examples does Doo talk about another one that comes to mind is the vimar Republic in Germany okay back in the 1920s right after World War I MH Germany was stuck with huge War reparations and their economy was a mess to try and cope yeah the government just started printing tons of money okay which led to hyperinflation right it was total chaos yeah economically and socially prices skyrocketed savings were wiped out wow and their currency became practically worthless it's a crazy example of what can happen when inflation gets out of control yeah I remember reading about people needing wheelbarrows full of cash just to buy a loaf of bread it was wild yeah these historical examples along with a bunch of others Doo looks at proved that these Cycles aren't anything new right they've been happening for centuries right and often with really bad consequences okay so we've seen how these debt Cycles have played out in the past yeah but why do they keep happening is it just like human nature to go overboard and then have to deal with the Fallout that's definitely part of it okay doia points out that these Cycles are driven by a few things okay like psychological biases right political pressure and just the way credit and debt work so it's not just bad luck or bad decisions there are like deeper forces at work here exactly yeah let's start with these psychological biases okay one big one is something economists call short-termism okay it means people even policy makers often focus on what they want right now right instead of thinking about the long-term consequences okay they take that extra slice of cake right even though they know it's not good for them down the road yeah when it comes to debt yeah this short-term thinking can lead to Too Much borrowing and spending right especially when credit is easy and cheap to get like those buy now pay later deals they make it so easy to spend more than you should they do yeah another bias is overconfidence okay when the economy is booming MH people tend to get super optimistic about the future right and underestimate the risks okay they start thinking nothing can go wrong right and the good times will last forever it's like that feeling you get when you're winning at the casino yeah you start thinking you're Invincible exactly and that overconfidence can lead to these speculative bubbles right where asset prices get way out of line with what they're actually worth yeah eventually those bubbles pop and reality sets back in so we've got these psychological biases pushing us towards short-term thinking but what about those political pressures you mentioned yeah governments often feel pressure to boost the economy and keep unemployment low yeah especially in democracies where there are regular elections right this can create an incentive to keep things going well mhm even if it means taking on more debt so there's this conflict between what's good for politicians in the short term and what's good for the country financially in the long term exactly yeah politicians often focus on those short-term economic gains right rather than thinking about long-term Financial stability and that's where the whole credit and debt thing comes in like we said before credit creates debt it does and if that debt isn't managed carefully it can grow really fast it's like a snowball rolling downhill getting bigger as the debt levels increase it gets harder and harder to manage it without borrowing even more exactly which just keeps the cycle going it does so you have these psychological biases political pressures right and the nature of debt itself all working together to create these repeating patterns yeah it's a pretty potent combination yeah it helps explain why we see these debt Cycles over and over again throughout history exactly and that's why Doo says understanding all of this is so important yeah for navigating the global economy Okay so we've explored how these debt Cycles work historical context and the factors that drive them what does all this mean for the future right are we just going to keep making the same mistakes not necessarily diio believes that if we can understand these Cycles right and see the warning signs yeah we can make better decisions and maybe even reduce the risks so it's not about trying to predict the future but about being ready for different possibilities that's it by studying history mhm being aware of our own biases and understanding how credit and debt work right we can hopefully handle these Cycles better than we have in the past that's a good point it's not like we're helpless against these Cycles right we can learn from history and make smarter choices both as individuals and as a society absolutely we're not just watching this happen right we can actually shape our economic future if we understand the forces at play that's a great takeaway for our listeners I think so we've covered a lot today from the basics of credit and debt yeah to the historical context and some possible solutions and the main point Doo seems to be making is that understanding these Cycles can help us make better decisions it can both in our own lives and as a country it can help everyone yeah whether you're an investor looking for opportunities right a policy maker trying to manage the economy or just a regular person trying to make sense of what's happening right this knowledge is really valuable so the next time you hear about Rising national debt yeah or a possible financial crisis right remember that there are historical patterns at work by understanding those patterns we can hopefully avoid making the same mistakes and create a more stable and prosperous future that's the goal thanks for joining us for this deep dive into the world of national debt of course we hope you found it insightful and empowering me too until next time keep learning and stay curious
Comments 0