저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 현재 글로벌 경기침체와 부채 위기가 임박했다고 보며, 금리 상승과 부채 폭증으로 다음 위기가 역대 최악일 수 있다고 주장한다. 거시 경제: 미국은 13년 넘게 침체가 없었기에 경기침체가 과거사 수준으로 임박했고, 채권은 역사상 가장 비싸며 저금리로 부동산이 거품이라고 진단한다. 금리는 더 오를 것이라고 본다. 원자재: 은은 역대 최고가 대비 75% 하락해 매우 싸다고 평가하며, 인플레이션 환경에서 원자재가 오르므로 투자 가치가 있다고 본다. 농업: 전쟁과 팬데믹으로 재고가 줄고 있고, 농업 종사자 고령화로 기회가 크다며 농업에 투자 중이며 추가 투자할 계획이라고 밝힌다. 암호화폐: 투자하지 않으며, 정부가 결국 통제하는 화폐가 될 것이라는 이유를 든다. 중국: 부동산 거품이 터지고 있으며 파산이 늘어날 것으로 보지만, 장기적으로 아시아와 중국에 관심을 둔다. 러시아·우크라이나·대만: 미국이 대만 문제로 전쟁을 원하는 것 같아 우려한다고 말한다. 북한: 개방되면 저렴한 노동력과 자원으로 매우 흥미로운 투자처가 될 것이라 보지만, 미군 주둔 때문에 당분간 어렵다고 본다. 인도: 관료주의가 심하지만 똑똑한 인도인을 찾으면 부자가 될 수 있다고 말하며, 현재는 투자하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 조언: 자녀에게 돈은 쓰는 것이 아니라 모으는 것이라고 가르쳤으며, 공매도를 배우는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 전망: 다음 위기 전에 큰 블로우오프 랠리가 나올 수 있으니 그때 매도와 공매도를 고려하라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
We have someone here who has such a colorful career. Growing up in a small town where you tell me your your phone number was a single digit. Phone number was five. Yes five. I don't think I can reach you that way now. Discovering Wall Street as an avenue for your worldly interests and then retiring at the age of thirty seven.
So I feel like I've missed my my chance. Just just about. Only to see an investor investment world ever since. So I kind of want to start out by asking you know you've kind of told me you stumbled upon Wall Street. This wasn't your interest. You didn't know about stocks and bonds. How did that happen.
How did you kind of come into the investing world at a young age. No. I knew absolutely nothing about Wall Street. I knew as in New York. And I knew something bad happened in 1929. But I thought stocks and bonds were the same thing. But I had an interview with like the guy and he lied to me. He said come work for us for the summer.
So I did. I was Wall Street and I fell in love. Was that a teenage teenage years. No no. It was my senior year at university. I was going to go to law school and medical school and business school. I was confused. As soon as I found Wall Street I didn't go to law school business school or medical school.
I went to Wall Street and had a lot of fun in that world ever since. So we were a lot of what you've told me and what we see from from your commentary and what you like to get involved in. You're the ultimate alternative investor to me. I mean we have this alternative investment panel next and we'll be defining it a little bit differently I think with a lot of the assets we get into these days.
But you've often run against the tide. I mean does. Tell me why. What does that ever scare you to kind of take those alternative positions. Well Michelle I never thought of it that way. I mean I know people say that. I just try to find things that are cheap whatever they are and wherever they are. I've been investing in who's better than recently because it's cheap and it's not as though I was saying let's find something new and different.
I found I think I found something cheap. So I invest there. But there has to be a reason. What do you like about stuff like it. Well it was back then. It was an old Soviet republic that was a disaster. And it was run by a guy who ruined it. But now there's a new crowd and they're changing and they are running it the way you would runners Bloomberg would run or I would run it.
I think I hope. And so I've started investing there as American cheese DAX. So where else are you looking now that you think you know we've kind of gloom and doom and Michelle as I look around the world bonds or bubble bonds have never been this expensive in history. Property in many places in Zeeland Korea.
Many places property is a bubble because of low interest rates. Well interest rates are going to go higher. So property is not a great place. Many stocks were a bubble. Samsung went up every day. Tencent went up. You know many stocks will form. They go bubble. It's calmed down now. But the only asset that I know is still cheap is commodities.
Silver is down 75 percent from its all time high. Know these things are very very cheap and those are not bubble numbers. So why. And if we're going to have inflation which we are. If you own the things that go up in price when there's inflation you make money. And by definition commodities go up when there is inflation.
I do want to get into that inflationary environment in a bit but I know you've told me. Speaking of alternative investments that you don't trade in crypto. And it makes sense to me in some respects because I understand that you said you most identify with the Austrian Austrian school of thought in economics.
So perhaps there is a little element of you know understanding as you say that regulation could be coming down the line. It might be know choking off a sort of free market there. Can you tell us a little bit about why you're not invested in crypto. What the what the outlook was for that as well. As I look around a lot of people I know we're investing in crypto and having fun and making money.
Many have already disappeared and gone to zero. My wife and I see crypto of all things. I don't invest in them because they the locals say they're going to be money. And my answer to that is if and when all our money is on our computer is going to be government. Money is not. When the US government says OK this is money now.
And every government is working on crypto money. They're not going to say this is money. But if you are to use that money you can use that money. That's not the way bureaucrats think. That's not the way politicians think. They want control. They want to regulate everything. And so in my view. If they're just trading vehicles.
How about it. I'm not a trader. This is a dumb crypto crashes. Don't change your mind about you know any consumer behavior that might be destabilizing or that's not your your. Well things changed and I have to change too. But no I don't see anything that's going to make me if suddenly the euro is all denominated in crypto then I'll have to change it.
No I don't see that. Well let's talk about the broader macro landscape right now. I mean you're a very worldly person. You've traveled all over the world great interests internationally. So the IMF says we're on the brink of global recession. We've cut a raging debate about U.S. recession. Prospects got inflation still high.
We've got developing economies especially seeing crashing currencies. I mean where with all this gloom and doom I mean do you kind of share this sort of pessimistic outlook right now or where where are you seeing. Well Michel it's been over 13 years since in the US there was a problem. That's the longest in American history.
And I use American since it's the largest. So we're going to have recessions again. And we're overdue. I don't know when you should watch Bloomberg. I will tell you when it's good advertising. There's a lot of pessimism around right now. And usually when there's a lot of pessimism something happens to cause the pessimism to rise.
So I would suspect some maybe peace in Ukraine. I don't know. I'm just saying something will happen. Everybody will get optimistic again. We'll have one lousy blow off. We often have blow offs and markets after a long long rise and we have a blow. I would suspect you'll have a blow. And now's the time to sell and to sell short.
That's what I hope. I'm smart enough to shorten that blow. Well you said for a while that the next crash will be a big one. I mean can you even if you're not projecting when it might come. What. Why. Why. In 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt. Look out the window. The debt since 2008 has skyrocketed everywhere.
Look at Japan. Look at America. Look at everywhere. The debt has gone up by staggering amounts since 2008. So I don't see how the next one cannot be the worst in my lifetime. It just seems to me a simple conclusion there. Any prescription that you have and not just for investors but what do you want to see.
Governments policymakers looking at. Right. Most government policy makers have no clue. Certainly not in Washington D.C.. So no I mean I would tell them to stop spending money and reduce the debt. Do you think they're going to do that. Not as the policymakers in Uzbekistan. They care policy makers in news Pakistan know what to do.
They have to open their own economy attract capital and develop capitalism. That's what they're trying to do I hope. That's why I've invested in Vegas. It is because it has been a nightmare for hundreds of years. This is not this is not this is probably their first bull market in decades. So I mean speaking of government officials and policymakers challenges these days.
I mean you how do you judge how central bankers have handled this crisis compared to previous crises. I mean we talk a lot about credibility. And you know they may have missed the boat on inflation and a lot of different economies. I mean what where do you think the state of play is. I understand you're not a huge fan.
Gotten worse. Is there a danger that you know investors and policymakers are completely talking past each other. Oh you think so. Don't you read learn. You're the one with the answers. Well in America we've had three central banks. The first two central banks disappeared because of mistakes. This one is going to disappear too eventually.
We've only had three in the US three good set to good central bankers in my lifetime. India had a very good central banker a few years ago. But as I look around in my history I don't remember very many good central bankers. Most of these guys are bureaucrats and academics. They don't know what they're doing.
They know what they read. They know how to keep their job. But they don't care about you and me. They care about their job and most of it all. We have one name Paul Volcker who ended the inflation of the 70s but it's because he knew what to do. And the president said to him you can do anything you want to give Jimmy Carter.
His name was Jimmy Carter the president. He said you can do anything you want. And I said are you sure. Carter said yes. Well Carter lost the presidency because Volcker took interest rates and you won't believe those. But at the end of 1979 Treasury bills in the US yielded over 20 percent. That's not a typo.
Over 20 percent long term government bonds yielded over 15 percent because Volcker knew what he had to do and he did it. We may have that problem again. So I trust that you're not too confident that the Fed this time will be able to manage a soft landing that they're seeking. You're right. I don't have to worry Bloomberg Surveillance.
Well let's let's move on to a particular hot spot that I know that you have a lot to talk about and that is China. So you told me about how your daughters speak Mandarin. Obviously China is very close to your heart. What is going on there these days. If we just look at the short term right now though I mean you've got regulatory herbs Taiwan tensions property market challenges.
You know what. What do you see that makes you hopeful. And the outlook for China certainly has had a bubble a property bubble which Beijing has talked about ending for several years. They never did anything but now it's happening. The property bubble is popping. Oh you're going to have more bankruptcies in China.
Beijing says they'll let people go bankrupt. I hope they mean it would be good for China would be good for the world. And then we can start over. Michelle America became the most successful country in the 20th century. But along the way we had civil war bankruptcies riots in the street massacres in the streets.
We had many problem. We became very successful. China will have problems but. I live in Asia because of China and I want my children to know Asia and speak Mandarin but that I don't see anybody else in the 21st century. And how about I have to ask them. U.S. China tensions got Taiwan this week is capturing the interest of people all over the world.
How are you feeling about the situation and the outlook for like smoothly. It looks like the people in Washington want a war. I don't want a war. But it is very perplexing what America's doing with Taiwan. I don't know why it's so important to us why we want to go to war and get everybody killed because of Taiwan.
But it looks to me like we do. It is insane. But let's hope I'm wrong. Let's hope I'm wrong. Well elsewhere in the region I mean talking about some of your calls for bright spots in the world and you've had an hour of consensus view on North Korea Anderson. So talk to us about that. Why. Why do you see such prospects there.
And obviously you can't put your money there right now but in your lifetime. I wish I could invest in North Korea but I cannot. But no once once the DMZ opens once the 38 parallel open is going to be a very exciting place. They have cheap labor educated labor natural resources capital management abilities.
80 million people right on the Chinese border is going to be very very exciting. If they open up and the kid wants to open up so far the American army won't let him. The problem is the American army will not leave. It's the only place that America can keep troops on the Chinese border on the Russian border so they won't leave.
That's the problem. The kid wants peace. The kid wants to do what for real. What the Chinese did in China. But unfortunately American army won't you. But if and when it's going to be very very exciting. Do you see that happening in the next. I see it happening but mom may be the only one who sees it happening.
So far the American army. Mr Trump thought he could win the Nobel Prize. The American army said no we're not going to leave Mr Trump. Why do you want to take at least one question from the audience here. There's one he says. Jim I remember your talk on stage using a sachet of sugar as an example. You were proven right about food getting more expensive.
Wonder when this was. What is your current outlook on the subject of food. Inflation causes better disaster for 30 years or so of the average age of farmers in America is 58. The average age in Japan is 66. I mean farming has been a disaster for a long time. The Chinese have a wonderful word. Wages.
It means disaster and opportunity the same thing. So I see great opportunities in agriculture. I've invested in agriculture and I plan to invest more because either we're not going to have clothes we're not going to have food or agriculture is going to continue to get better. What about this current current run of food price growth especially.
I mean do you see. Obviously it's very hard to predict with all the weather impact as well. But where are we on the food inflation still. Well. Inventories are being worked down because of the war and because of the virus. I would. I am investing in agriculture and plan to invest more because I see something has to change and is starting to change.
And the war of course in Ukraine makes agriculture even more. It makes it more attractive because there is no food because the Chinese the Russians and the Ukrainians are both huge producers of food. If you had real war you don't plan maize crops. And so things that I think things are going to get better.
I recall that you even told young investors to get involved in commodities. Well if you like working outdoors agriculture as I said the average age of farmers in Japan is 66. Americans 58. The highest rate of suicide in the UK has been in agriculture. Nobody wants to be a farmer. That means there is opportunity.
There's not much competition. But let me take one other audience question. What what is your view on India. But if you can only visit one country in your life I would urge you to visit India. There is no place there's no place like it. The food the size the men the women everybody. It's very very exciting place.
But it's not a. It's the world's worst bureaucracy. They learned bureaucracy from the English. Then they took it to a higher plane. The horrible bureaucracy if you can find a smart Indian and there are plenty of smart Indian you'll get very very rich. But you have to beware of the bureaucracy because it's it's a nightmare.
But at times I have invested in India but not now. I wish we could take a sort of global tour because one of the most fun facts about you is that you have a Guinness Book of World record for what motorcycling across six continents to get its records for going around the world. But Michel it doesn't pay the rent.
Well this is what I wanted to ask you. I mean to end on a high note you know if you've recently written a book dedicated to your daughters about you know how it's achieved success you know a lot of advice for young people especially. Right. So give us a little bit of a flavor. How does one become someone who's comfortable flooding across the world in a motorcycle but also you know engaging every day with a very fast pace investment world.
Well I tried to teach my daughters that money is to be saved. It's not to be spent. I got them piggy banks when they were very young. So the sixth piggy banks are getting good money different cards is into the piggy bank. I wanted them to grow up thinking well what is currency by the way. Singapore dollars U.S.
how as a British pounds China. It depends on where we are. We travel song. So I want them as they could. Money is something to be saved not to be spent. We all know many people who have ruined their lives because they didn't understand money. Well my 14 year old when she got a you turned 14 I told her she had to get a job because everybody should learn about work.
I thought she would go to McDonald's and make eight dollars an hour. She's smarter than I am. She got a job teaching Mandarin at 30 dollars an hour. And she complained because the grownups make sixty dollars an hour. I said you're 14. Anyway I've tried to teach them about working a job saving about you know that money is not just to be frittered away.
Do you worry at all about this next generation of investors. I mean the workforce. I worry about this generation of investment. What is your what is your biggest worry about the current though. The staggering amount of debt which most people these days think is normal and not something to worry about.
I've read enough history to know that it is something to worry about and it's going to cause us many many problems down the road. Even after the next crash. Well after the next crisis the next recession is going to be horrible and it may wipe out a lot of debt. So yeah if we start. Oh yes. Or if we eliminate a lot of the debt things will be better.
But right now that's what I worry about a great deal. All right. Let's finish on a high note. Maybe maybe one area of the world could be an asset class could be a geography could be something that's underestimated its investment potential right now. Can you just give us I mentioned lose Pakistan agriculture.
I mean agriculture. Agriculture is still a disaster. So I don't want to beat a dead horse. But I would say agriculture is probably very attractive right now. For another. No. People should learn to sell short. Most people do not want to do that right. I sometimes they'll be sure but I just it is a forgotten art and people need to learn about selling short again. Excellent. Over the next few years.
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