저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 경착륙 위험이 크며 바닥은 향후 1~3개월 내 형성될 수 있다는 관점. 금리·인플레이션: 인플레이션이 끈질기면 연준이 금리를 4~5%까지 올려 정책을 제대로 실행할 것으로 봄. 높은 금리는 정부의 군사 모험 재정 조달을 어렵게 해 전쟁 억지 요인이 될 수 있다고 주장. 영국 연금 위기: 영국 연금이 레버리지 롱 포지션을 취하며 강제 매도가 발생, 미국 CLO·정크채권 시장으로 전이될 수 있다는 우려. 이는 인플레이션 은폐와 금리 인상의 결과로 봄. 영국 주택시장: 40% 규모의 주택 버블이 있으며 붕괴 시 임대료 급등 등 대규모 조정이 올 수 있다고 언급. 향후 전망: 대규모 재정 지출은 군사보다 내부 문제(영국 연금, 하이일드 신용시장) 구제에 쓰일 가능성. 과거 제로금리 시기 기술주 호황의 수혜를 언급하며, 이번 사이클에서는 침착하게 버틸 수 있는 투자자가 큰 돈을 벌 것이라 강조. 소비자는 경기침체와 상승하는 대출금리로 가장 큰 타격을 받을 것이라 봄. 투자 시사점: 역사적으로 시장 침체기에 설립된 펀드가 최고 성과를 냈다는 점을 언급하며 침체기 투자 기회를 시사.
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if you look back in history since 2000 all of the best performing funds of all times were the ones that were formed right in the middle of the downturns 030809 these are the vintages that have always been the best and what that means it's a proxy for investing which is it's the hardest time right now it's when you have the shakiest hand when you're writing the check but it'll probably be where all of the real money is made or the real generational wealth both for the entrepreneurs who have the courage to start and the investors who have the courage to invest foreign podcast giving us the news in stocks economy and the financial markets tremath believes the market is going to make a hard landing and with the severe Corrections recently we'll see that sooner than later because of all the Panic selling some people think the stock market is about to fall it is incredible how much value of the global market has been destroyed in the past few months alone and the financial system is now in danger people might be saying that the FED will yield by early 2023 and there is a clear expectation that rate increases will have to occur and with the current economic downturn it looks eerily similar to the crash of 08.
let's get into the interview with chamoth as he lets us know what to I'm going to connect what may seem to disparate ideas together but the single biggest thing I think that will prevent nuclear war is the inflation that we're feeling and the reason is because it allows the FED in my opinion for the first time really in the last 15 years to act properly and if they hold the line and they take interest rates to four or five percent I think one non-obvious outcome of all of that is it becomes extremely expensive next to Impossible to finance military adventurism abroad and that's a practical economic outcrop of really you know meaningfully High rates greater than zero and so I actually think the reality is that for a lot of these governments the more that inflation sticks around the stickier it is the higher rates are in general the bigger the problems at home are and the less prone they're going to be likely I actually think that explains that explains the escalation of this rhetoric because people want to try to make this issue and put it on the table but you understand that you know these folks don't say it's a 90 likelihood they go from one percent to 25 which if you understand probabilities is effectively a left tail risk that's effectively the same and the reason they're trying to do it is they're trying to get it back David as you say to time stamp it to get it in front of people's perspectives to make it important in a moment where everybody increasingly not just in the United States but in the UK in Europe are looking internally and trying to figure out how to keep their economies in a reasonably functioning way and how to make sure that their financial and other infrastructure keeps working so you're saying and that is not necessarily a priority when rates are zero but when rates are four percent I mean just by the way if you guys saw what happened today it was the competing of two narratives this week there is the financial Narrative of the UK having to bail out their pension system right of all of a sudden the pensions being forced sellers of those Force sellers now you know uh spilling into the United States debt markets around Clo's and collateralized Loan obligations and junk debt which then could theoretically spill as a contagion to other parts of the market that was narrative one and and all of that by the way is a result of hiding inflation and the you know fed moving up rates and you know other countries being forced to to attack inflation with higher rates and creating all these dislocations with a recession looming overhead the question is what impact will it have on the cost of goods and services in the meantime chamoth believes the framework for the bottom of the market is being built right now and in the next 30 days we could see that come to fruition the UK is currently experiencing a 40 housing bubble that will cost People's rent to Skyrocket three to four times what they're paying if this happens we'll see a major collapse in that market as well and if you actually saw the print that was spilled the disproportionate amount of the rhetoric actually focused on the former narrative and not the latter and so I think that that's why the these folks are escalating the rhetoric in order to kind of create an equality so that they get enough print they want that version of the outcome what you're saying is you have the world saying we can't afford to have this conflict we are broke well not too many chaotic the world is saying we are increasingly under enormous domestic pressure and as a result we cannot spend on things abroad if I was a betting man I spent that I I would guess that the next half a trillion to a trillion dollars that is spent in Western world economies will be to subsidize something that's broken internally inside of one of our countries whether it's the UK pension system or whether it's the high-yield credit markets and it will not be to finance military adventurism Whoever thought it was a good idea to allow pensions to run levered risk was it's obviously insane could you imagine if it turned out that the teacher's pensions and the firefighters pensions in America were running levered long I mean this has to get resolved now I mean it's just another Breaking Point yeah it's clear you know what a pension is I know I'm saying I'm saying don't use some fancy intellectual argument I'm saying practically speaking the treasurer is not allowed to call Goldman Sachs and say I'm going to run two turns of Leverage on this money that is not allowed to happen in the United States okay I get in some fancy way it could be thought of as levered long with you know all kinds of indirection but that is not how the world works today practically speaking it is how the UK Works a Treasurer in a UK pension system is allowed to call a an investment bank and actually run levered that is insane okay so my point is when rates are non-zero all of that Jig Is Up governments are forced to batten down the hatches and you know husband cash and I think that that is and and as disruptive as that is it may actually be the bulwark against War The Jig Is up folks uh I mean I think that's what we should take away from this is we can't afford this and the United States is funding it we have to force a settlement here and it will be a profile it may be the silver lining of inflation we are enormous beneficiaries of having been born when we were because we are a bunch of late 40 and early 50-somethings that in the prime of our career in Tech um the Federal Reserve took rates to zero and we had no idea a priori how important that would be in all of our outcomes but they were and even more importantly PCS Internet and mobile happens all of that hard work was done beforehand by an entire court of people that had to fight much stronger headwinds than we had to fight so you know David I just want to build on that like we were extraordinarily lucky and so don't get caught up in that because there's all these factors you don't you cannot control these companies are going to go through a very difficult moment which again is the reason why a good Steady Hand who knows what they're doing will make a ton of money in this next cycle there are moments when what we do reflects in value that frankly where we are over earning and then there are periods where what we do is under reflected and we are under earning and so the through line has to be that you need to survive in both good times and bad times which means you got to like what you're doing and if you get caught up in a numerical number there's all kinds of math you can do to make it look a lot bigger than it is but it's all meaningless the following months will serve as a clear indication of what to despite the fact that they may currently be driven by fear the regular consumer will be the one most impacted by this recessionary environment and are another issue to watch out for loan interest rates are rising quickly and Jamal thinks we could be witness market and how do you believe it will impact the typical consumer comment down ] thank you
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