저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
1930~2011년 켄 피셔의 '주식시장의 17가지 신화' 데이터를 근거로, 전쟁·인플레이션 공포 속에서도 주식시장이 대체로 상승했다는 점을 보여주는 영상. 영상 배경: 금리 인상, 인플레이션, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 주식시장의 불확실성이 커진 상황을 짚음. 역사적 사례 정리: 이탈리아의 아프리카 침공(1935), 라인란트 점령(1936), 중국 침공, 2차대전, 한국전쟁(1950), 이스라엘-이집트 전쟁(1956), 인도-파키스탄 전쟁, 소련의 헝가리 점령, 베트남·캄보디아 관련 사건, 레바논 내전(1976) 등 여러 전쟁·분쟁 이후 시장이 상승한 사례가 소개됨. 일부 사례(2차대전 초기 등)에서는 하락도 있었음. 통계 결론: 현재와 유사한 약 28개 사건 중 주식수익률이 나빴던 경우는 약 8건(약 28%)이고, 나머지 약 72%에서는 수익률이 양호했다고 제시. 진행자 유의사항: 통계적으로 높은 확률이지만 100% 확실하지 않으므로 참고용으로만 사용하라고 강조. 시장 전망: 최근 시장이 반등 조짐을 보인다고 언급하며, 러시아-우크라이나 분쟁이 평화적으로 해결되기를 바란다는 메시지로 마무리. 자막 인식 오류가 많아 일부 연도·사건명은 부정확할 수 있음.
다듬은 글
Hello, I see. Lately, dissatisfaction regarding various interests and information is being expressed in Canada as well. The stock market is also facing increasing uncertainty amidst the situation of interest rate hikes and inflation, with the ongoing situation where Russia is befriending Ukraine. Many of you must be having a hard time.
In light of similar historical situations, I thought it might be of some help to those currently investing to look at how the stock market reacted in the past. I will develop a table from Keam Fisher's book, *The 17 Myths of the Stock Market*, which shows the number of stocks based on events, incidents, and interests from 1930 to 2011, and we will look at it together.
We will narrow it down to only those situations similar to the current one. In 1935, there was Italy's invasion of Africa, and it rose by 22.7%. In 1946, during the occupation of the Rhine River, it rose by 19.2%. Oh, there was the invasion of China. This area will fall. 9. The Nazis' yesterday flowers.
0. Hey, at that time, the peak. A dream of a 1% rise. Poland is a friend. Next, regarding World War II... It worked out, but at this time - 1.44%. There was a German declaration of war with Germany as a friend of the Soviet Union, and it rose at that time. Regarding the Yeon school district, Normandy photos, and the battle against the enemy, it is now declining.
I know the Japanese atomic bomb tour rose, and it also rose during the Indo-Pakistani war and the Soviet occupation of Hungary. Oh, Israel was invaded regarding independence, and at that time it was 1. The Korean War broke out in 1950, and despite China pushing back its friend in Tibet, it rose. Then, in 1956, there was a war between Israel and Egypt, and I know it rose 2.5 8%.
Then, in 1962, there was the India War, but at that time, it was a dream to allow. In 1965, there was a war involving a window box, and it rose below. But it wasn't an invasion; there was the assassination of Martin Luther King and President Gale, and it was a fixed part that would rise. In 1970, there was the US invasion of Cambodia; at that time, it was allowed.
Then, in 1976, there was the Lebanese Civil War, and it rose at that time as well. Still life. In 1979, there was a small amount of a friend, and I know it rose at that time. In 1983, the US was pro-communist, so it rose at that time too. And in 1986, there was something to look at in the US review, and we cut it and achieved mutual growth.
Next, in the 1990s, there was a plate friend in Iraq, but at that time, it declined. In the request 61 years in the US, there was an incident where such sharing was posted, and soon, an incident where the lane collapsed happened. Oh, in the summer, definitely as an enemy, in 94, parenting, Sora, br.
In the past, as an issue in Korea, there was the incident of Kim Il-sung's death, and it rose. Then, in 1996, there was fear of inflation, and knowing that it rose at that time as well, I imagined that in 2005, it would rise to 6 to 70 dollars, and the London terrorist attack occurred. In 2006, there was the concept of fluffiness, and as the war between Iraq and North Korea continued, the direction immediately rose.
In 2008, regarding global finance, this and prices broke through $140, which was higher than now, and the market fell significantly. In 2010, there was a soccer club that collided more, and it rose. I have looked into events similar to the current situation so far, and out of about 28 similar events, there were only about 8 instances where stock returns were bad.
So, approximately Excluding the 28%, the remaining 72% saw consistently good stock returns. So, statistically speaking, it is true that there was a high probability that the stock market would continue to perform well despite the pressure of war and inflation. As is always the case in many stock markets, even if the statistical probability is high, nothing is 100% certain.
You should only use this as a reference to see how the market moved in similar situations in the past. Fortunately, the market has recently shown signs of rebounding, and I hope this serves as a good reward for those who have been patiently waiting. In any case, I earnestly hope that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved peacefully without Inmankiw as soon as possible, so that no more people will suffer. I will be back next time with a better video.
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