저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한줄결론: 피터 쉬프는 은행 구제금융과 연준의 화폐 발행으로 달러 구매력이 크게 떨어지므로 은행 예금을 빼서 금·은·해외배당주·가치주 등으로 옮기라고 주장한다. 은행 구제와 인플레이션: 연준은 자금이 없어 재무부를 통해 구제받고, 결국 돈을 찍어 은행의 국채·MBS를 액면가 근처로 매입한다. 이 비용은 인플레이션으로 국민에게 전가되며, 예금 계좌도 안전하지 않다. 예금 대신 자산 이동: 장기 여유자금은 은행에 두지 말고 금·은을 사거나 주식(해외 배당 가치주), 부동산 등에 투자하라고 권한다. 달러나 은행 잔고는 손실이 확실하다고 본다. 과거 은행 체계와 규제 비판: 1933년 예금보험 이전에도 산업혁명 자금을 조달했고, 대공황 때 예금 손실은 약 2% 수준이었다. 현재는 정부 규제와 도덕적 해이로 은행이 더 불안하다고 본다. 대마불사(Too Big To Fail) 은행은 애초에 존재하면 안 된다고 주장한다. 코로나 이후 정책 평가: 봉쇄로 생산은 줄이고 통화는 찍어내서 대규모 인플레이션이 올 수밖에 없었다고 본다. 주류가 디플레이션을 걱정한 것을 비판하며, 0% 금리와 연준 대차대조표 9조 달러가 수십 년 고인플레이션과 하이퍼인플레이션 위험을 낳는다고 본다. 장기 전망: 달러 붕괴, 금값 급등, 달러의 기축통화 지위 상실을 큰 틀의 결론으로 제시한다. 다만 시점은 특정하지 않으며 '크래시 방지'가 아닌 '인플레이션 방지' 포트폴리오를 강조한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 예금 인출 및 금·은·주식·부동산 이동 권고, 달러 및 은행 잔고 회피, 장기적 달러 약세와 금 상승 전망.
다듬은 글
The Fed doesn't have any money. It's losing money itself. The Fed is getting bailed out by the Treasury, because the Fed doesn't have any money. But then again, neither does the Treasury. So the Federal Reserve has to print money to give it to the Treasury to bail itself out. But all of this means that the dollars that we all hold those dollars are gonna buy a lot less as a result of these bank bailouts.
Even during the Great Depression with all the bank failures only about 2% of the value of all the money on deposit in all those banks was lost. That wasn't that bad considering that it was the Great Depression. Because the banks are much worse off now they're far less stable than they were during the Great Depression.
When COVID first hit and I saw immediately the impact that was going to have, because we were telling people not to work and then we were printing more money. So we were producing less and printing more. That was a recipe for massive inflation, and now we're having to eat that. But still you know the mainstream was worried about deflation.
Deflation! They're pretty money like crazy and nobody's working, and these fools are worried about prices going down. With all the news of bank failures and what they can mean for the economy, those of you who are financially savvy might wonder what the "solutions" are going to mean for the economy as well.
In times like these, one voice in particular comes to mind for me. In a recent Brighteon interview with Mike Adams, investor, financial commentator, and CEO of Europe Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff was asked about these banking failures and what they mean for the economy and inflation. Peter is often criticized for being a "doomer," and in fact, at one point he was even given the moniker "Dr.
Doom." His opponents say that he's a broken clock, but Peter argues that it's the Federal Reserve, and other central banks around the world, that are stuck with only one move, and they've gotten it all wrong. Love him or hate him, Peter Schiff is well known at this point for being very good at spotting the sign posts of a failing economy.
Stick around to the end of the video to hear Peter's latest prediction of the financial road ahead, what Too Big To Fail really means this time around, as well as some steps that you can take to avoid the erosion of your future purchasing power. I tend to agree with Peter on the fundamental issues of the current banking crisis and the economy in general.
But what's your take? Let me know in the comments below. And while you're at it, please Like this video, Subscribe, and turn on Notifications so you don't miss any future videos. -When are we going to be paying double for groceries compared to today, roughly? -Oh, I mean soon I think. I mean, we're already paying double for a lot of the things at the grocery store.
You know I don't need... you look at certain prices and they they've gone way up. But this latest round of bank bailouts is going to cause tremendous inflation, because... where is the Federal Reserve getting the money to bail out all these banks? President Biden made a big deal about reassuring the public that the taxpayers aren't going to have to pay for this.
Well technically I guess it's not TAXES that are going up in the traditional sense. It's INFLATION that's going to go up. These bank bailouts aren't free, and they're not going to be paid for by the banks themselves. They're getting the bailouts. They're not going to pay for it. It's the American public that's going to pay for it.
But the way they're going to pay for it is through inflation, because the Federal Reserve is going to have to create out of thin air trillions of new dollars and add it to the money supply. -Yup. -It's going to give the dollars to the banks, and the banks are going to give the Fed their Treasuries and their mortgage backed securities, except they're going to give the Fed maybe ¢60 or ¢70 worth of Treasuries of mortgage backed securities, and they're going to get $1.
Right? They're not going to get the market value for those securities, which is what we would get if any... if you or I were dumb enough to buy US Treasuries you know 20/30-year Treasuries a year or 2 ago when they were yielding 1%. If we were dumb enough to buy them and then we wanted to sell them you know we could only get maybe ¢70 on the dollar ¢60 on the dollar.
But the banks that were dumb enough to buy them they could get ¢100 on the dollar from the Fed. But the Fed doesn't have any money. -It's a bailout. Yeah, and the Fed doesn't have any money. It's losing money itself. The Fed is getting bailed out by the Treasury, because the Fed doesn't have any money.
But then again, neither does the Treasury. So the Federal Reserve has to print money to give it to the Treasury to bail itself out. But all of this means that the dollars that we all hold... I mean, I don't hold them because I get rid of them as fast as I get them, but the average American has got dollars ...and those dollars are going to buy a lot less as a result of these bank bailouts.
So, you know, when Biden or anybody in the government or in the media says, "Oh, the government acted prudently. We saved the day. We've reassured that your bank account is safe." Nobody's bank account is safe. You know, when the government tells you that your bank account is safe, it's because it's not.
And the reason it's not safe... it's not because the banks are going to fail... the government has already said, "We're not going to let them fail." Now that's a mistake. They should let insolvent banks fail. That's how capitalism works, but we don't have that anymore. We have socialism. And so, the insolvent banks won't fail.
They're going to be propped up with inflation. -Yeah -But what that means is every single bank account in the country, even the people who are banking with solvent banks, their accounts are going to lose tremendous value, because the money in their accounts is going to lose its purchasing power through inflation.
So no bank account is safe. Everybody with a bank account is going to experience substantial loss of purchasing power. And so, the smart thing to do is to withdraw your money from the bank. I mean, your savings. I mean, you got to keep short term there to pay your bills. But money that you don't need for a year or 2 or 5 years whatever don't leave it in a bank, because you're guaranteed to lose because prices are going to go way up.
So you should pull your money out of the bank and do something else. Buy gold. Buy silver. That's a better savings vehicle than fiat currencies. Or invest. Get into stocks. I buy foreign dividend paying stocks for my clients - value stocks. Some people buy real estate. But what you can't own is dollars or a bank account, because you're going to lose.
-Peter, I really want to ask you today about your take on what's happening with Credit Suisse and also the First Republic bailout in the United States, but first Credit Suisse... the Swiss National Bank has said they're going to step in with however much money is needed to prevent this thing from collapsing.
Seems like the same plan that the Fed has for printing money in the U.S. What's your take? -Well, I don't think any banks should be bailed out. The fact that banks are bailed out is the problem. We've set a precedent and created a moral hazard by bailing out banks. And because everybody expects a failed bank to be bailed out, the banks take a lot more risk than they would take in a world where they weren't going to be bailed out.
I mean why should we create a special privilege for banks? Why is it that if a bank is in trouble it qualifies for a federal government bailout? I mean, where in the United States Constitution does it authorize the United States government to bail out failed banks? It doesn't. I mean, that's not a role of the U.S.
government. I want bad banks to go out of business. And if bad banks were allowed to go out of business, fewer banks would be going out of business, because fewer banks would be bad, because they would be forced to be responsible, because their depositors would force them to be responsible. We had banks in this country before we had deposit insurance.
We didn't get any deposit insurance at all until the Great Depression. So we managed to go from you know 1789, whenever we signed the Constitution, to 1933 or 34 without any deposit insurance. We financed the Industrial Revolution without any deposit insurance. We had big banks. Lots of people put money in banks.
It all worked fine. And in fact, even during the Great Depression, with all the bank failures, only about 2% of the value of all the money on deposit in all those banks was lost. That wasn't that bad considering that it was the Great Depression. Because the banks are much worse off now they're far less stable than they were during the Great Depression, because back then the market was regulating the banks.
Now you've got the government regulating the banks, and it's much worse regulation. And of course you got this moral hazard, because people just put their money in any bank. And the banks know the banks know that people don't care what they do with their money. You know, because it's all guaranteed by the government.
So this is a mistake. the Swiss government everybody thinks you can't let a bank fail. And you know the problem is because of the attitude that no bank can fail, that's why all these banks are so big. You know... All these banks that were designated as Too Big To Fail in 2008, Well, they're all way bigger now.
Maybe we should have let some of them fail. That way would have been better off, instead of making them so much bigger. -Yeah now... -Now they're really Too Big To Fail. But the thing is they're Too Big To Exist then, if they're Too Big To Fail, because everything has to be able to fail. -Has anybody apologized to you yet?
Because you were right, you were right, you were right. Maybe you were a little bit later, but you're still right about exactly what's going down. -Well... Anybody? -the only people that apologized.... So in 2009, right? Ben Stein apologized to me. He was one of the guys that was kind of laughing at me and making fun of me in 2007 you know stuff like that, so Ben Stein apologized.
That was a long time ago, but I forget. Most people haven't apologized. I mean, they still make fun of me. They still think I'm... I'm wrong, or I'm just a stopped clock. But the stopped clocks are the people who have been bullished for the last 15 years or even longer, because they didn't understand the problems underlying the economy.
They don't understand all of the mistakes that the Fed has made and what the consequences of those mistakes will be. The problem is I see this so clearly and so far in advance, that if it takes a long time for everybody else to figure out what I knew for the beginning, they think I'm wrong all those years.
I'm not. They're wrong all those years. I'm just right. It's just because so many people are wrong, that's what allows it to continue for such a long period of time. The bubble gets bigger and bigger and bigger, because nobody knows that it's a bubble except the guys that are on the outside looking in saying, "It's a bubble.
It's a bubble." But now the air is coming out, and people don't understand it. I mean, when COVID first hit, I saw immediately the impact that was going to have, because we were telling people not to work, and then we were printing more money. So we were producing less and printing more. That was a recipe for massive inflation, and now we're having to eat that.
But still, the mainstream was worried about deflation. Deflation! They're printing money like crazy and nobody's working, and these fools are worried about prices going down. Prices were going to go way up. And now we've been creating inflation for 20 years. We had interest rates at 0%. We printed all this money.
The feds balance sheet got to $9 trillion. Now we're going to have to live with decades of high inflation and potentially hyperinflation based on the way these policies are evolving. So we'll see if some people apologize when we finally get that kind of outcome which is.... My big picture forecasts have been for collapse of the dollar, skyrocketing gold prices, the dollar losing its role as the reserve currency.
So these are like the big endgame things, and so maybe some of the apologies will be reserved until those things happen. But of course, by then it's too late to follow my advice. If you wait until I'm right about everything, then it's not going to help you. -Exactly -You're broke by then. So you have to look at the things I've said, the things I've written over the past 15-20 years and say, "You know what, 98% of what this guy said would happen has happened.
In fact, all the stuff that as he said would happen, everybody else said was impossible. It would never happen." So I think I've got a very good track record of understanding the big picture. Has everything that I predicted come to pass? No. But you have to gauge.... Do you think if I've got so much right, what do you think the odds are that I'm right on the rest of it?
Versus just following the advice of people who have gotten everything wrong, including the people who have run the Federal Reserve. And make your investment. I mean, get out of the dollar. Get out of harm's way. And inflation proof your portfolio. It's not just crash proof this time, it's inflation proof.
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