저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식은 장기적으로 기업 이익 성장에 따라 오르므로 지금도 일정 비중 보유가 합리적이라는 장기 낙관론. 시장 환경 및 신뢰 문제: 엔론·월드컴 등 회계 부정은 실제 문제이며 회복에 시간이 걸린다. 감시 강화와 이사회 신중성으로 대응될 것이라고 봄. 다만 청렴성은 법으로 강제할 수 없다고 봄. 투자자 선택지: 현금성 자산(MMF 약 1.7%대)·10년물 국채(약 4.7%)는 세후 기준으로 주식 장기 수익률보다 낮을 것으로 보고, 주식 비중은 개인 성향에 따라 결정하라고 조언. 나이 기반 주식 비중 공식은 반대. 종목 선정 원칙: 주가가 떨어졌다는 이유는 매수 근거가 되지 않음. 11살에게 2분 안에 설명 가능한 사업 이해가 필수. 재무상태표(순현금 vs 순부채)를 확인하라고 강조. 매도 원칙: 저성장 기업은 실적 개선 후 매도, 성장주는 성장 스토리가 유효한 동안 보유. 월마트 사례처럼 장기 성장 여력을 보고 판단. 본인의 가장 큰 실수는 우량 성장주를 너무 일찍 판 것(Toys R Us, Home Depot). 기대수익 관점: 손실은 100%로 제한되지만 성공 시 2배·3배 수익이 나므로 승률이 낮아도 괜찮다는 입장. 경기 전망: 정부 재정적자는 경기 완충 역할로 긍정적이며 시스템은 작동한다고 봄. 과거 9번의 경기침체를 거쳤음. 투자자 장기 시계는 짧아졌다는 문제의식. 결론적 조언: 단기 공포에 매도하지 말고 장기 관점에서 자신이 이해하는 기업에 나눠 투자할 것.
다듬은 글
whether this Market is totally different whether your old view that people should find Buy and Hold good stocks is no longer applicable what do you think I think the same rules applied 50 years ago applied five years ago applied 20 years from now first of all you have to know what you own but it's a funder stock you have to have a reason for it and you ought to be able to explain to an 11 year old in two minutes or less wyones and this sucker's going up is not a good reason I've tried that one it's not a doesn't work so speak to the question of trust which already just expressed considerable concern about it I did at the opening what do you think it's going to take to repair it time I think this is really terrible this week what you mentioned about Worldcom and Anderson I mean these are real problems but you just have to have faith I mean we've had this before I think it's going to take time to heal this is very serious what do you think the antidote is to make sure we get rid of these abuses I think you know people will be punished for it I think it'll be surveillance I think board of directors is going to be more careful I think this is what's happened if you've had an incredible economic boom a lot of easy money around people push the envelope it's sad it's a you can't legislate integrity what would you say to investors now who say Peter everything I own is gone down uh it's been going down now for a couple of years people keep saying we're at a bottom right should I get out and go into CDs or gold bars and an opium or whatever that's right well basically you look now you have three choices I think if you're invested you can put your money in money market fund and get one seven one five one six and it's taxed at 40 rate or you can buy a 10-year Treasury and get four seven that's taxed at 40 rate or you can have some equities and I think stocks over the next 10 years will do a lot better than four seven or one seven so I would have some of my money now it's up to the person to decide how much they want to have in the stock market for some people 10 is aggressive for some people 50 is the right amount it's a personal decision and you can't go by these rules that if you're 25 you should be 100 and if you're 45 you should be 50 if you're 60 you should be zero and I guess burping a lot I know what the rules are in people at 60 but they that I hate those rules I think they're pathetic why are you you're confident that sucks will be a lot higher in 10 years well they're not lottery tickets I mean when you own a stock it's a share of a company and I think companies gonna make a lot more money in 10 years a lot more money in 20 years and that's that's why they go up that's the only reason some companies don't do well xeroxes make a lot less money than they did 30 years ago it's a lot less but a lot more companies earning a lot more money they were and that's why stocks go up corporate problems are going up 40 fold since World War II stock market's up 40-fold it's 25 years since you started running Magellan you have been director of research for Fidelity you've been with them since I guess 69.
what are the most conspicuous mistakes you've seen investors make well I think not looking at the balance sheet and this mistake I've made if you look at you know if you look at a person's balance sheet you look to see what the assets say on their houses they own a house they own a car what debt they have and take that away that's what your net worth is you should do that with a company and I've seen I've seen investors look at companies that made let's say looking at two companies they're very depressed they're each at four dollars a share but one company's and they're each losing a couple million dollars a quarter one company is 100 million in cash and no debt and one company has no cash and 100 million are dead they're about to blow TAPS in the second company so you are and you can do this if you get through eighth grade math and get anywhere near eight and eight equals 16 you can do this look at a company's financial position it's impossible to go bankrupt you don't have any debt I mean how could you do that when you were actively managing money you presumably were under the same pressures as other fund managers to show performance results did that incline you to sell too quickly sometimes well I think my greatest mistakes are probably you know it's funny on a stock all you can lose is 100 I've done that but your great mistakes of selling a good company and that doubles then it triples in quadruples because you make a lot of mistakes and so those ones that go up tenfold like all the 10 baggers some of my mistakes just say oh my God this stock is too high and I was wrong and you had to figure out what inning am I in this baseball game I sold Toys R Us way too early it went up 20-fold after I sold I did the same thing at Home Depot those are probably my two greatest mistakes I ever made when should you sell well you ought to find out why you bought a stock if you're saying it's a sickle company and they do them poorly and they're doing awful you wait till things are getting better they're doing terrific and then you sell it but with a Growth Company you have to say Walmart's case 10 years after went public you could have bought the stock and made 500 times your money because they still are only in 15 the United States and they could say why can't they go to 17.
why can't they go 19 why can't they go to 23 so the next four decades they're around the country so you have to save yourself in this stock I have a 10 year story a 20-year story I'll be able to write that down and follow that that's what I do with the company and that's your decision that's how you sell it they have a novel element from many investors today in the trust issue yes we also have security problems that we didn't traditionally have in America have they changed the way you pick and believe in stocks no you still buy a company and you buy company to grow and if it's a textile company or it's a electronics company a software company you better understand what they do and and if they do well the stock will do well no matter what happens to Market if the Dow Jones today was a thousand or a 500 you would made a lot of money at McDonald's you would have made a lot of money Johnson Johnson you want to make a lot of money in July these companies earnings have gone up a lot the last 30 years and if the Mark was 50 000 you would have lost money in Burlington Industries I recommended that in 1969 I think it's I think it's gone from 34 to two with no stock splits because earnings been terrible well your modesty actually makes an important point which is people with the best batting averages in the world dump out a thousand I sometimes get angry male particularly in Bear Market saying so and so recommended such and such and it went down well uh how often did you come up with a clicker well this is a funny business you don't have to write even five times out of ten if the times you're right you make a double and triple it offsets all those times you lose 20 or 30 percent So when you buy a psychother itself how much can I lose and how much can I make and you ought to be able to make a lot because it stocks are risky I mean look look at how much we lost in ATT look how much we lost in Xerox these were Quality Companies you know you could lose a lot in this talk so you gotta say yourself how much can I make because I want to buy a stock if I'm right I'm going to make a double or triple you once said to me that you spent all your time looking at companies analyzing them as businesses and you didn't spend a lot of time worrying about the economy do you have a view in the economy now well I I look at the economy I look historically economy I don't look at the future I mean that's weather forecasting Peter Lou asked you a question about sort of the typical investor mistakes and when you started in the business I know the average investor held mutual funds for you know 16 17 years and now it's down to less than two years do you think that's one of the problems have time rise has gotten Too Short well I think also what they might have to say what do I want do I need the money in a year do you need the money five years you're a terrible investor you need the money in the year if you need it for college to send your kids there for a wedding you're not gonna be a good investor then you have to do some homework and say should I have 10 growth funds that's silly you say what do I want I want two or three growth funds what's my mix I like and you want to say is aggressive you know some people aggressive is 50 so I would say people and some people might want to have foreign funds it's like a menu in a restaurant they should look it over and decide what they like and then stay with it and if one group does well for two or three years the next bunch of money they add to maybe they should add to the group that's underperforming over time different categories work out to be about the same those those who were who are less sanguine about the economy than you've just expressed often cite the recent declines in the dollar and the shift from service us to deficit as negatives you seem to indicate that they're positives why well I think I think the government running a deficit is terrific that's the way it should work I mean when they were running a 200 billion dollar Surplus which they were they're taking 200 billion out of the economy now the government's running 100 billion dollar deficit it's pumping 100 billion in it's a cushion we've had nine recessions World War Two we've got every one of them the system works if you could give one sentence of advice to scared investors right now what would it be I think you ought to see some kids you know hire an eight-year-old hire a six-year-old just watch them they don't know who Alan Greenspan is they know about the shape of the yield curve they're optimistic about the future we'll be fine for the next 30 40 years
댓글 0