저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 애플은 서비스·아이폰 수요 덕분에 강세 유지, 테슬라는 목표가 하향에도 장기 강세 견해 유지. 애플: 공급망 점검 결과 코로나 영향은 제한적이며 현재 소폭 상회 추세. 아이폰 교체 수요(3.5년 미교체 사용자 25%)와 서비스 사업이 핵심 동력이라고 주장. 애플 전망: 6~9개월, 최대 12개월 내 주가가 두 자릿수 이상(‘2’로 시작하는 가격대) 도달 가능성 언급. 현재 137달러에서 125달러까지 하락 가능성도 열어둠. 리스크-보상 측면에서 매수 우위. 테슬라: 목표가를 1,400달러에서 1,000달러로 하향. 중국 공급망·아시아 점검 결과 인도량 미스(delivery miss) 가능성 언급. 장기 성장 스토리는 여전히 긍정적. 테슬라 리스크: 머스크의 트위터 인수 관련 혼란이 주가 부담. 머스크 지분 담보 마진콜 우려와 지분 매각 가능성 언급. 이 드라마가 주가에 약 100달러 영향을 준다는 질문에 동의하는 취지. 나스닥 100·기술주: 밸류에이션 축소 우려에 대해 클라우드·사이버보안 등 구조적 성장이 지속되며, 향후 4~5년 기술 지출이 과거 15년을 넘을 것이라 주장. 펀더멘털이 유지되는 한 기술주를 포기하면 안 된다는 입장. 출연자 견해: 애플 매수 및 장기 상승 전망 유지, 테슬라는 단기 악재 존재하나 장기 긍정, 기술주 전반 구조적 성장 낙관.
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nasdaq 100's gotten hammered this week apple and tesla among the biggest drags our next guest covers both companies for wed bush he's dan ives the star analyst there he's he's back with us at post nine um i fully expect you to show up here and pound the table on apple and tell me all the reasons why it's great and everybody should buy it and right now the market doesn't necessarily care about all those reasons so why should we look i mean we've done checks over the last week and and we were ready to cut numbers if we thought coming out of the supply chain we saw that zero covet really having a massive negative impact instead it's the opposite i actually think right now tracking slightly ahead i think from a demand perspective what we're seeing on services what we're seeing on iphones much better than expectations and it comes down to streets baking in you're going to see numbers cut we think the opposite that's why i know when we look at apple here i view it as a table pound the risk reward and i think based on checks further bullish based on this name i mean you you come on i know you always criticize what you call the haters right when people try and come out and talk negatively about the stock but the stock does seem to have uh an issue lately that all of those fundamentals are being ignored tell me why there's no reason that the stock could go from 137 where it is right now down to say 125.
why couldn't it go there if market sentiment remains as uneven as unsettled as it currently is look i'm not saying that we can't go up but my fundamental issue is the services business that's the game changer that's why i believe ultimately we look out six nine months amount twelve we're gonna have a stock with the two in front in other words i believe services is the key change in apple and the other thing the iphone demand story you got 25 that have still not upgraded their iphone in three and a half years that's the install based story and like we said right now many yelling fire in a crowded theater we did checks ready to cut numbers instead it's actually maybe even slightly better all right so let's pivot to tesla a new nine-month low for that stock which talk about you know getting beaten up lately it's it's an obvious understatement has your view on tesla changed in any way there are some who suggest that this is the last of the so-called meme stocks if you want to put this in that basket uh there's a role that are rolling over right now as we speak yeah well look we cut our price target this week from 1400 to a thousand still bullish you know in terms of the long-term story but but it was a cop because look fundamentally based on our checks in what we're doing in asia in terms of china i think it's going to be a delivery miss we want to impact in terms of what that's going to be in the quarter still bullish on the longer term story and test but let's just be clear the twitter circus show what we've seen coming out of musk combined with what we see especially in the xero code in china can't wear the rose colored glasses we had to cut the price target and and that was really where we came out you said before that musk accounts for what like this drama accounts for like 100 bucks something like that is that is that right i think it's increasing in terms of what that overhang has become because because of the worries that if tesla stock keeps going down what that can mean in terms of a margin call does he have to ultimately put up more stock that's why this circus show is basically turned into a category 5 hurricane how much of your price target cut was due to concerns you have about china and then how much legitimately were due to this ongoing soap opera with musk all because of china when we actually look at the must situation i still think that you know a lot of that started to get baked into the name but as we see today it starts to cascade and at the end of the day you know it's been a black eye for musk and at a time you need him to navigate the storm you want to see him on twitter just focused on twitter rather than on tesla in terms of what we see on the supply chain so playing off of both of these stocks which have huge weightings in like say the nas 100 for example there are some who say that that one of the worrying signs still in the stock market is that people are still too enamored with tech these stocks went way up too much their valuations increased on fed liquidity and a lot of that's coming out of the system now and until investors break the love affair they have with some of the names like this the market overall can't get can't get real sure and totally get the argument but i just think when we look at the transformational growth intact that's not stopping in terms of cloud cyber security obviously names like pow out that we saw last night names that are holding up i believe the amount of tech spending over the next four to five years will actually be more than what we've seen over the last 15.
so it speaks to my view from a multiple perspective you don't just throw the towel in on these names because what we're seeing on fundamentals play out and that's going to be the debate as we saw today front and center now you mentioned
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