저자: ChasseursdeDécotes진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 2년 만에 트위터를 재개하며 팔란티어(약 9.12억달러, 포트폴리오 66%)와 엔비디아(약 1.86억달러, 13%)에 풋옵션 베팅을 공개했다는 소식을 전함. 클라우드 성장률 둔화와 과잉 설비투자(Capex), AI 파트너십 순환 구조를 버블 근거로 제시. 팔란티어 PER 623(후행)·217(선행)을 고평가 근거로 언급하며 AGI 도래 지연 가능성도 거론. 진행자는 버리의 견해에 대해 찬반 양론을 소개하고 시청자 의견을 요청.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone, we're back today to talk about Michael Burry who is back in the news because he hasn't tweeted much for 2 years and today he took some rather thunderous positions. So, as a reminder, well, it's the one on the left who was played by Christopher Bale in the film The Big Short a few years ago and who is this trader who bet against the fall of the American bond debt housing market , the famous subprime.
So I suggest we go back a little bit on this capital, its edge funds. We can say several things that he regularly beat the market in the years 2001-2003, that afterwards we were able to short the internet bubble, obviously that some of you did not necessarily know that I did, even though I was quite young.
Then, Sion was up 242% and indeed, it used Swap default credits which were its collateral against defaults on US subprime bonds. So that's where he made a lot of money and we see it in the film, he goes against the grain a bit because nobody really believes it, in the end he makes a huge amount of money.
So, there have been quite a few problems surrounding all of this . He decided to close his fund. But a funny little detail: he also invested in two Korean Small Companies with an activist approach. A little nod to uh the work that Franck is doing uh on Korea and what we actually talk about quite regularly.
Another recent notable event was that he was able to make money by finally predicting the collapse, the small crack that occurred in August 2023. And so he was able to take advantage of this by placing $1.6 billion in down options against ETFs. So it was once again an interesting anticipation, and then he participated in the Alibaba rebound.
So, these were positions that were quite, quite, quite strong for him. Uh, I'm just sharing his website with you. That's it, it's just one page, there's nothing on it. So literally its fund is closed today. Don't invest alongside him, even if there are Twitter accounts that regularly look at his positions to offer to do copy trading because I don't encourage you since in general, I think it's important that you do your homework and that you don't blindly follow the recommendations of others.
And yet, by being on Twitter, we can see what his positions are. And as I was saying in the preamble, in fact, he had n't posted on Twitter for 2 years. So, I'm going to show you a little bit of what he posted. So, uh, that's the famous phrase he's referring to here. Then we'll try to see a little bit about these different photos.
So here, in fact, we finally see the growth of the cloud at Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft. So on the left, it's the period 2018-2022 and on the right, so in red, the period 2023-2025. So what we want to show here is that indeed, the growth of the cloud sector for three of the guys and women is less important today than it was then, almost twice as much in fact if we look at the figures apart from Microsoft.
And so what this is trying to tell us is that the market is getting very excited when in fact the reality is that on the cloud side we are less efficient in terms of growth than Another element which is quite interesting he talks about Capex Gross so in fact it is the investment of companies which is also important and he makes a comparison with the Bultech of the 2000s which he had shorted and he was convincing about shorting crises.
So what's happening to him is that there's overinvestment. What he wants to show is that for him there is overinvestment in the cloud and in the energy sector compared to what AI will actually be able to bring in terms of revenue . So I'm putting it in light of the comments we've received and what we often see people saying there are often two schools of thought, right?
We tend to agree that these companies are highly valued, even overvalued. Others will tell us yes, but there is profit growth, which is not wrong. Uh, so the whole debate is about whether we anticipate profit growth that will continue at stratospheric levels over the next few years, given the titanic investments we see with partnerships.
Uh, every day we hear about partnerships, whether it's Microsoft with OpenAI, and we're going to detail that on this little table here, or rather this little graph here that followed us, between Nvidia and all the financial flows around AI. So, in fact, for him, it's a real bubble: Nvidia, OpenAI, MD, ORAC, all of that is a huge amount of interconnectedness, and so he thinks that this overvaluation is excessive because of the capex that will be behind it, not necessarily realized in the results.
So it's quite interesting. What I propose is that we now see how he has positioned himself in relation to all of this. So as you can see, I'm just going to talk to you about the first two lines, which are the two most important. A put bet on Palentir. So it's a downside option of 912 million. So it's huge, it's 66% of the portfolio.
I often talk with Franck about diversification. So he is totally convinced and therefore he bets on the decline of Palentir and we will come back to this since we made a video with Franck on the valuations of Nvidia and Palentir and so I will come back to the valuation level of Palentir right after, although you can obviously refer to the video we made .
And the second position is a put on Nvidia worth 186 million, 13% of his portfolio, so less conviction than that of Palentir, but still very important. Um, and um, it's pretty crazy to think that he didn't post for 2 years. Uh, he made a little tweet a few days ago to show that he was back, uh, with, I was going to say, the slightly enigmatic side that we know him for.
But it's quite mind-blowing to think, "OK, that's it, for him now, he believes that at any moment the bubble could burst." Well, that's what we can say. I will now share with you simply, very quickly, we are on Yao Finance, we are on the Palentière stock, so it is the company, it is almost shorted for 1 billion.
And what we see is that today we have a training PE, so a pricing ratio of 623 and a forward PE of 217. As we said in the video, Palenti has had exceptional results, largely driven by Lia, its founder and many other factors. But if growth continues and profits and revenue eventually increase, then the P/E ratio decreases, and what we had with Fran was that it still took 4 or 5 years to return to a normal P/E ratio relative to the current valuation level .
So it's interesting to take it into account because a PE of 623, we are indeed on something that no longer has any uh it has nothing tangible and real compared to the normal multiples that we should be seeing on the market. So there you have it, in any case, feel free to tell us in the comments what you think of Michael Burry's position.
Do you think that Palenti and Nvidia are companies that are fairly valued? Are these companies of the future, or on the contrary, do you find these levels excessive? And above all, the real debate is whether capex is the money that is being invested today? We must remember the promise made by Elon Musk and Stam Altman when they raised billions for their various companies, which was to say that AGI would arrive within a year or two.
And now the narrative that we see more and more in the Sicone Valley, so we hear it in some podcasts, but it is to say that in fact it is going to take much longer than expected and on the other hand there are going to be lots of applications that will be created around all of this. So feel free to tell us in the comments whether you think Ben Michael Burry is right to short Nvidia and Palentir or whether he is completely wrong and these are companies that will continue to cough up huge amounts of money. So. Uh, see you very soon.
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