저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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미국 경제가 2008년 위기 때보다 훨씬 심각한 상태이며 현재 더 큰 경기침체와 금융위기 초입에 있다는 결론. 미국 가계 상황: 1940년 이후 중산층이 지금보다 재정적으로 나은 위치였다고 주장, 미국인들은 파산 상태에 가깝고 월급으로 생활한다고 평가. 연준과 정책 비판: 연준은 건전한 성장(저축·투자 기반)과 인플레이션·저금리로 만든 거품 성장을 구분하지 못한다고 비판. 구제금융, 실업급여 연장, PPP, CARES법 등 재정 부양책도 실수라고 봄. 달러와 금: 달러가 기축통화 지위를 잃을 것이며 그 자리를 금이 대체할 것으로 예상, 향후 수년간 큰 변화가 있을 것이라고 전망. 양적완화 규모: QE4 규모가 이미 QE1~3 합계를 넘어섰으며 이는 이번 거품 붕괴가 더 크다는 의미라고 설명. 금리 정책: 2018년 12월 인상이 마지막 인상이며 이후 금리 인하가 나올 것이라고 예측했고 실제 그렇게 되었다고 주장. 2015년 이후 금리 정상화 시도는 실패했고 2018년 4분기 대폭락 이후 연준이 방향을 바꿨다고 설명. 과도한 부채로 인해 정상 금리조차 감당 불가하다고 봄. 정부 지출: 연준이 미국 정부 지출의 55%를 찍어낸 돈으로 충당하며 이는 인플레이션을 통한 숨은 세금이라고 주장. 정부 지출은 민간 부문에 대한 세금이자 자원 낭비라고 비판. 리스크: 거품 붕괴 후 회복 불가, 과거 상태로의 복귀는 불가능하다는 주장.
다듬은 글
middle class americans were in better financial position in 1940 after a decade of the great recession than they are today americans are completely broke they have nothing they're living paycheck to paycheck the fed doesn't understand the difference between legitimate economic growth that comes from under consumption savings and investment and a phony growth a bubble that comes from inflation money printing artificially low interest rates also the government is making uh horrific mistakes with the bailouts uh all of the stimulus programs the extended unemployment the payroll protection act the cares act this ridiculous heroes act what's going to happen to uh the global economy the us economy in particular the u.s financial markets of the dollar its status as the world's reserve currency and what the implications are not only for americans but for the rest of the world when the dollar loses that status as the reserve currency and it's replaced i believe it'll be replaced by gold and i think a lot of the changes are going to happen you know over the next several years and you know a lot of the problems uh that exist in the global economy you know in general but in particular in the u s economy those problems have been building for a long time in fact we've succeeded unfortunately in kicking the can down the road for uh many many years over a decade now since the 08 financial crisis and all of the problems that led to that crisis are actually uh worse now the problems have been made bigger by the very policies that were supposedly implemented uh to solve those problems because we had a financial crisis because we had too much debt uh and rather than eradicating the debt we took on a lot more and we simply inflated a bigger bubble the financial crisis really kicked off after the real estate bubble popped and people who had borrowed money to buy homes could no longer afford or no longer had the desire to repay their mortgages and that had profound impact on the lenders that caused the financial crisis and of course that dragged down the entire economy but rather than allowing the bad actors to be punished we bailed them out and instead of blaming the federal reserve uh for inflating the bubble and blaming fannie and freddie for the moral hazard we basically rewarded the government with more power we rewarded the fed with even more power and so since then they did a lot more damage i already said uh from the beginning from before the fed even ended qe3 i said that qe4 would be larger than qe1 2 and 3 combined what i didn't realize is how quickly that forecast would come true because it's already larger the fed has already monetized more debt since it started qe4 than it did in the first three rounds of quantitative easing combined that's because we had a much bigger bubble pop this time and we are now uh you know in the early stages of a much greater recession and a much deeper financial crisis than the one that we experienced uh back in 2008 but a lot of people still haven't come to terms with this they still think that you know we can get back to where we were that's impossible we cannot go back to the way things were because the way things were was not normal we were in a bubble and there is no way to go back to where we were i was on television in the u.s uh uh forecasting that the rate hike we were about to get in december of 2018 would be the last hike of the cycle and that the very next move that the fed would make would be a rate cut i was one of the only people really in the financial community who was making that call most people expected the fed to continue hiking rates nobody thought that not only would they stop hiking but they would actually cut and it turned out that i was right they did that and i also said that after they cut rates they would return to qe which they did all of this government spending is compounding the problems making it harder for the economy to recover because government spending is a drag on economic uh activity it's a drag on the economy it represents a tax on the private sector it's a transfer from the private to the public sector public sector is far less efficient in fact it's not even efficient at all it's a complete waste so we're taking resources that would have been used effectively and instead we're having government squander those resources now a lot of this is taking the form of inflation people don't realize that the government is confiscating such a large percentage of the national income because they're not doing it honestly they're doing it dishonestly through inflation right now 55 cents out of every dollar the u.s government is spending it's getting from the federal reserve the federal reserve is printing 55 cents out of every dollar the federal government spends that means the fed is printing more money than the us government collects in taxation so americans are not getting more than half of the government for free we're still paying for all this government we're just paying for all this government through inflation rather than through more legitimate forms of taxation but when governments fund themselves with a printing press that's still a tax it's just the government gets its purchasing power through an alternative route so like when the government levies an income tax on its citizens and and actually takes their money away from them uh people have less money to spend because the government took it and then the government gives that money to somebody else and now that person who got the money can go out and spend it instead of you the federal reserve beginning really in 2015 in the fourth quarter of 2015 finally tried to raise interest rates up from zero and normalize them something which i said from the beginning would be impossible and that you know that forecast was was proven correct when the fed was forced to abandon its efforts to normalize interest rates when they only got back to about two and a half percent which was about half of where they were before the fed cut them to zero and that really happened in the fourth quarter of 2018 that's when we had the worst drop in the u.s stock market since the great depression on a quarterly basis basically everything started to implode uh it would have continued had the fed remained on its course of shrinking its balance sheet and trying to normalize interest rates so instead the fed did a complete about-face it started to cut interest rates and it started to grow its balance sheet uh through uh the the fed funds market uh trying to continue to artificially suppress interest rates because they had risen to a point where a overly indebted u.s economy could no longer afford to pay even though the rates were still low by historic uh uh norms the amount of debt was high extremely high and so we you cannot afford a normal rate of interest on an abnormally large amount of debt
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