저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 중앙은행이 붕괴를 막지 못하고 시장이 결국 강제 조정을 일으킬 것이라며 현금·저축자 보호와 대비를 강조한다. 시장 경고: 2015년 미국 주식은 소수 대형주만 오르고 다수 종목은 하락해 내부 약화 신호가 나타났으며, 2016년 들어 거의 모든 주식이 하락 중이라고 진단한다. 중앙은행 정책: 양적완화와 마이너스 금리가 저축자와 연기금을 파괴하고 있으며, 출구 전략은 없고 결국 시장이 정부에 등을 돌리는 위기가 온다고 본다. 시기는 특정하지 않는다. 현금 통제: 현금 없는 사회로의 이동은 정부 권력을 키우는 방향이며 좋지 않다고 본다. 다만 전세계적 시행에는 시간이 걸린다. 금: 금을 여러 해 사지 않았고 지금은 사지 않는다. 다만 중앙은행 조치로 조정이 오면 금 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 본다. 이미 많은 금을 보유한다. 미국: 미국 주식 공매도 포지션을 보유하고, 정크본드 공매도도 유지한다. 유럽에 대해서도 랠리 시 공매도할 계획이다. 중국: 과잉 건설과 부동산 문제가 있지만 장기적으로 강한 성장 여력이 있다고 보며 중국 롱, 미국 숏 입장이다. 투자 대상: 나이지리아·카자흐스탄·이란·콜롬비아에 관심이 있으나 현재 투자는 하지 않는다. 최후에 하나만 보유한다면 설탕 또는 루블을 언급한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 전반적으로 비관적 거시 전망이며 구체적 시기 예측은 거부한다.
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Insider buying is surging and legendary investors are piling into one specific gold deal where the founders have already earned investors 500 and 900% gains on their two previous companies in the past 11 years now investors like founder of paname silver Ross Speedy Rick rule of sprout asset management and legendary fund manager and resource stock picker Maron katusa are taking a stake in this new gold company insiders own 40% of the company this is the gold play you don't want to miss out on learn more at futuremoneytrends.com Insider greetings and thank you for joining us at futuremoneytrends.com I'm here with a legendary investor someone who's been a very pleasant guest on the show in the past I haven't talked to him in about a year uh Mr Jim Rogers chairman of Rogers Holdings uh you can also find the many books that he's written at Jim rogers.com books uh some of my my favorites Adventure capitalist Street smarts and a personal favorite is a gift to my children Jim thank you so much for joining us I'm delighted to be here Daniel uh Jim a lot of people uh are getting concerned about the economy because of the major indexes are falling gold is is rising but you know we've been through this so many times before where all of a sudden the debt is spotlighted the bonds the unsustainability what is different about now is there anything different about right now in 2016 than in 2009 or 20 ,000 well the difference in in 2009 and today is in 2009 the market had caved in uh and collapsed and and now we have the market near all-time highs that's a gigantic difference seven years later with massive amounts of debt added massive amounts of money printing a huge artificial wave of liquidity around the world and unfortunately we're all going to pay the price for it for the central banks though uh I mean they've been able to Kick the Can down the road I mean after 911 in 2008 2011 when the when when the dollar or the the uh treasury uh got downgraded uh by the S&P they always seem to be able to just keep this thing going can they keep it going for another decade no no they cannot I thought you gonna say for another month or two another quarter not for not for another decade absolutely not it's all gonna C in long before that Daniel so you should you should be knowledgeable I know you are but you should be worried and you should be prepared everybody should be worried and be prepared when you say be prepared how do you prepare well in many ways it depends on who you are and where you are and your you're station in life you know the the difference what you should do if you're a city in Colombia and if you're a city in London fast vastly different different things if you're 19 years old it's a whole lot different from if you're 89 years years old so it depends on you and what you know the the S the simple advice is to stay with what you know whoever you are what you yourself know don't listen to me or some guy you hear on the on the Internet or the TV stay with what you know uh otherwise do nothing Jim for negative interest rates I mean really it's negative interest rates or 0 to 1% so essentially no one's getting anything from these bonds uh what is this what is the central Banker's Exit Plan I know that you you are not a central Banker you're obviously thank God you're not but what what do you think what do you suspect I mean what's your speculation what the hell are they thinking what is their exit Game well this was all an experiment for them if you read some of the things they say especially in unguarded moments you'll see that they really didn't know what they were doing they just thought well let's let's throw this up in the air and see if it works or not they didn't know because nobody's ever done something like this before but essentially most important thing or a very important thing about this Danel is this is the first time in recorded history when you've had Central Bank government setting out to destroy the people who save and invest throughout history all of us were taught save your money inv best for the future and then in the end you'll be okay I know nearly everybody listening to this was taught that lesson they wouldn't be listening right now unfortunately all of those people are now being wiped out you know getting no interest it doesn't matter whether your pension fund endowment insurance company whatever you are they're all getting wiped out these days uh and that historically is going to be a disaster you need the people who save and invest you need that class of people more than anything else well we're now ruining them and unfortunately it's going to be a very very serious problem when it ends Jim the war on cash uh it seems to be uh accelerating however is there enough time for them to implement the war on cash where they phase out currency uh for them to get the maximum benefit of having a cashless Society or are they just really ramping this up too late well too late too late difficult know it's not too late they can get it done will they get it done in 2016 no I mean there's still Millions hundreds of millions of people in the world don't have phones and bank accounts etc etc so it will take a while to implement this uh certainly worldwide or even Nationwide in the United States are they going to do it yes they're going to do it it gives them more power and more control and unfortunately for all of us governments throughout history have tried for more power and more control they like it power corrupts I'm not the first person to figure that out and they're going to continue to do it is it good for you and me absolutely not good for you and me but it gives him more control and un torture we're going to to have to face that problem and how they're going to exit from this Daniel unfortunately I I I don't know I don't know if they have a plan because I read all the stuff that they talk about best I can see is they say well if nothing else we can just let this all run off you know we buy a lot of bonds someday the Bonds mature and then everything goes back to normal well that's 30 years it takes for all of that to happen a um and B it's not going to work that way because eventually the market is just going to say to these guys we've had enough enough is enough we don't want you garbage paper anymore and then the then we're going to have the real crisis the crisis that comes from governments or central banks trying to cool things off is one thing but a crisis that the market imposes on the world those are the really really nasty things and that's what we're going to face that these guys have gotten us into a situation where there's no Escape other than panic and problems you seem um more specific I've talked to you in the past you've never wanted to put a date on it understandably uh but you have given a warning however talking to you right now I'm getting the sense that you there's a little more urgency that people need to prepare people need to be ready is there something specific that you're seeing that has you worried well I I guess the main thing that has me more worried now is that the markets are telling us that there's something wrong you know this this the last uh well last few months you know in 2015 in the United States twice as many stocks were down on the New York Stock Exchange has up only onethird of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were up in 2015 now that was thegued the averages did did were flat they were flat them down a little bit but they were by the fact that a few big companies went up all the time you know the names Amazon Microsoft those stocks went up and hid the fact that the market was really deteriorating underneath so there's the first sign uh and then of course this year everything is going down nearly everything so we know that the market knows and the market is telling us telling me it's getting closer and closer now the central banks are doing what they always they could riding to the rescue and say don't worry we will save you we will save you the markets will rally but the markets are telling me hey guys we're getting close is gold making 52- we highs part of that sign and is it is it now a bullish sign for gold because I know you've actually been kind of on the sidelines for gold at least last year and maybe the previous years I was talking to you I haven't bought go for five over five years I own a lot of gold don't get me wrong and silver but I haven't bought any gold for a long time uh and you know I'm on record in 2011 is saying it's going to go to to 1,200 it went below 12200 shows how smart I am but no I'm not buying gold at the moment I still expect another opportunity to buy gold it may not happen certainly may not happen but if it doesn't don't worry Daniel I own plenty of gold uh I'm looking for new opportunities to buy gold something will H let's say let's say that the central Bankers save us for a while that the markets go up for a while normally go will go down or often go will go down in a scenario like that especially if the central Bankers do something dramatic and then that would be the opportunity to buy gold if you ask me Daniel the central Bankers haven't given up yet they're not they still think they're they still think they're smart they still think they know what they're doing they don't know what they're doing they think they're smarter than the market that be CH to they are not smarter than the market even though they think they are they all went to Ivy League schools for goodness sake you know all the academics and bureaucrats they think they're smarter than you and me and certainly smarter than the market they're not Jim what you're just saying kind of almost reminds me of the election this year where you've got these the rejection of the politicians who have never really accomplished anything but you have Donald Trump who's a businessman who has accomplished a lot of things and of course this is not an endorsement or talk about Trump but is the biggest problem or one of the fundamental problems of the central Bankers that these people really haven't accomplished anything in life other than going to school well that is that is part of our problem you you put it you put it very very well indeed they were they were great at school you know they were great in the playground some of them right in the playground but that's about the that's about the end of it by the way Mr Trump had the things he's been bankrupt four times I mean he's really really really made a lot of people suffer very badly so he knows about bankrupts I'm afraid he'll bankrupts again let's not get off on that yeah Jim um what are your favorite opportunities right now either short or long oh mainly I'm sitting and watching I I don't really what am I doing if anything uh I'm gearing up to try to get the opp I want to I want to invest in Nigeria I want to invest in Kazakhstan want to invest in Iran not doing anything in either of those places at the moment but I'm gearing up um Colombia if I weren't so lazy I would be doing something in Colombia at the moment uh I am short in the US I'm short the stocks we talked about before the ones that never went that never went down um I'm I'm short junk Bonds in the US but these are positions that I put on before I'm not not adding to them at the moment if the opportunity arises I mean the Jun bonds go up a fair amount I'm sure I'll I know I'll add to that position if gold collapses I'll add to that position but at the moment oh I would like to short on this rally uh Europe I'm going to short some Europe on this rally that that's probably the next action that I will be taking but who knows Daniel I mean you tell me what's going to happen in the next couple of weeks I can give you better answers uh as we wrap it up what is the Mi what is the media missing about China because essentially they're talking about a bubble bursting and you know we do see the the bridges to Nowhere we do see the ghost cities but you're there you you've been to more countries than anyone uh I mean literally you have guis book world's records for for traveling to so many countries what is what is the media uh the Talking Heads what are they missing about China the main thing they seem to be missing is they don't quite understand the depth of the changes that are taking place there China is the only country in the world that's been great three or four times Great Britain was great once Rome was great once Egypt was great once China's been great three or four times for whatever reason I don't know they've also had catastrophe and collapse totally collapse three or four times but every time they're the only country which has turned around and risen to the top again and my you that's what's happening again that does not mean Daniel there won't be many disasters and setbacks along the way in the 19th century Amer we were growing to be the great country of the 20th century but we had a horrible Civil War we had 15 depressions with the de we had massacres in the streets we had very few human rights we had little rule of law you could buy and sell Congress well you can still buy and sell congressmen but in the 19th century they were cheap you buy three or four for the price of one today we have many problems China will have many problems as it rises there does seem to be some property problems now from overbuilding but I would also point out I have been watching property overbuilding for 30 years I remember the first time I went I said who's going to use these hotels who's going to use these buildings well China for many historic reasons has been a disaster for a few hundred years so there's a lot of 10up demand 10up need but there will be problems going on you talk about the GH cities but somehow know that those G cities keep getting filled up in the past 30 years one after another the government has said that now they're going to let people go bankrupt so there will be bankrupt which will be good for China be good for the world if they mean it uh so when you start seeing people go bankrupt in China it will scare a lot of us but China has gigantic reserves a lot of money saved up for a rainy day and huge P up the needs I mean you look around your life China most Chinese don't have nearly the life that you have whether it's travel or physical Goods you know anything so there's a huge need in China Education Health Care you name it and they need it so there there will be setbacks there will be problems along the way which is good China has said they're going to let people go bankrupt in 2008 the world had a problem fortunately China had a lot of money saved for a rainy day they started spending it which is one reason the world recovered but this time around Daniel the Chinese have debt themselves I mean it's not like America it's not like Portugal or something but they have a lot of debt themselves so they're going to see some problems too but I I ass you I'm long China and I'm short the US I I don't see that uh that the Chinese situation while there will be problems is better than what's happening in the US uh Jim uh for people who are listening to the show right now and uh they're interested in Reading one of your books kind of put uh put you down into a corner here what what two books could you suggest for someone right now to go read that you've written that would be very relevant for them today in in today's markets well Street smarts mainly because that's the most recent way it's called Street smarts Adventures on the road and and in the markets and it basically discusses all of this and much more including how I sort of came from the backwoods of Alabama suddenly living here in in Asia with two blue-eyed kids who speak to speak Mandarin perfect and why and why I'm here it's a long way from the backwoods of Alabama to here I guess the other one would be a gift to my children just because everybody who who has children will understand it and children will understand it but it's really it's written for my children but my children will not understand it till they're in their 20s or 30s it's really for grown-ups more than more than for children because how some of the things that I see about how to live one's life and how to how to survive much less be successful so I guess those are the two two where I was start throwing it my travel books too but you said only two so let's stop there well yeah and and the children's book a gift to my children without a doubt my favorite book I have three small children myself and it it it's just great uh last question sir uh if you could only hold one investment for the next five years what would it be the next five years it would probably be sugar or maybe rice uh probably probably sugar uh if we're talking about today's prices I mean if if gold were under a thousand I would say gold but if you're talking about something to buy today at the market well sugar comes to mind maybe the ruble uh the ruble or or sugar I would say well Jim you've been very generous with your time thank you so much sir anyone who would like to learn more about Jim Rogers uh go to Jim rogers.com or go straight to Jim rogers.com books and you can buy all of his books uh specifically the two he just noted Jim thank you again sir
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