저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 브렉시트 충격을 계기로 연준이 금리인상 대신 인하와 QE4로 전환할 것이라며 금·은 대세 상승을 확신하고 지금 매수를 권고한다. 금·은 가격 동향: 브렉시트 투표 직후 금이 온스당 100달러 이상 급등해 1350달러를 넘었고 1300달러 저항선을 상회했다. 현재 약 1320달러이며 은도 18달러를 넘어 2015년 이후 최고 종가를 기록했다. 금속 가격과 금광주 모두 돌파가 확인됐다고 본다. 연준 전망: 시장은 이제서야 다음 금리 조정이 인상이 아니라 인하일 가능성을 높게 반영하고 있다. 시프는 작년 12월 인상 이후 줄곧 다음 움직임은 인하라고 주장해왔다고 밝힌다. 연준은 금리를 실제로 올린 적이 없고 인상은 말뿐이었으며, 이제 외부 충격을 핑계로 QE 재개나 인하로 선회할 것이라고 주장한다. 달러와 엔: 최근 달러 강세는 안전자산 선호가 아니라 엔·달러 캐리트레이드 청산에 따른 것으로 지속 가능하지 않다고 본다. 연준 인상 가능성 소멸과 비둘기파 대응으로 달러는 약세로 전환될 것이라 본다. 경기 및 리스크: 미국 경제 지표는 계속 약하고 회복은 이미 끝났으며, 이번 회복은 역사상 최악의 회복이라고 평가한다. 다음 경기침체는 대침체보다 훨씬 심각할 것이라 경고한다. 금융시스템 전체가 저금리와 중앙은행의 신뢰(hype)에 기대고 있어 취약하다고 본다. 통화정책 전망: 중앙은행은 버블 붕괴를 막기 위해 더 많은 화폐 발행을 할 것이며, 제로금리 또는 마이너스금리로 돌아갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 버냉키·크루그먼 등 인플레이션 없음과 정책 성공을 주장한 이들은 틀렸다고 비판한다. 투자 조언: 금·은 매도자의 공급이 빠르게 고갈될 것이며 숏 포지션은 항복할 것으로 본다. 아직 금·은을 전부 배분하지 않았다면 지금 사라고 권하고, 가격이 올랐다고 기회를 놓쳤다고 생각하지 말라고 강조한다. 현재 가격은 과거와 미래 기준으로 여전히 매우 싸다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 시프는 금·은이 1900달러 부근 신고점(금)과 은 50달러 수준까지 상승 가능하다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
well last week on Thursday night when it became obvious that the British were going to vote to leave the European Union the price of gold spiked hire training over one hundred dollars an ounce higher than the prior day close we got above thirteen hundred and fifty now we didn't hold all of those gains but we still held above 1300 which had proved to be some substantial resistance over the past several months the price of gold today is trading at about thirteen hundred and twenty dollars an ounce more significantly today the price of silver finally followed the price of gold breaking out to its highest close since january of last year we're now above eighteen dollars an ounce at 1827 up about fifty cents an ounce today we now have confirmation from both metals that the markets are prepared to move a lot higher the most recent catalyst being the market turmoil that followed the british vote to lead the european union but what's really behind the metals rise is not what's happening in Europe but I believe what's going to be happening here in the United States because I believe the federal reserve is going to use the turmoil in the markets that follow that vote as the excuse that it's been waiting for not only not to raise rates but to cut rates and to launch QE 4 in fact that is the main reason I believe that the markets have recovered somewhat from their brains it related losses because if you look at the financial markets they are now pricing in for the first time a higher probability that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be to cut rates not to raise them now remember I've been saying this the whole time ever since the Federal Reserve raised rates in December I was saying the likelihood was that the next move would be a cut and not another increase but of course everybody else was looking for three or four increases in this year and now as we've been get more and more negative economic data and the Fed has been backpedaling people have been pushing back into the future when they believe we'll get the next rate hike but now that we've had all this weakness in the markets particularly in the banking stocks not only the European banks which have been decimated but the banks here in the United States the markets are now finally coming to terms with this reality although they still don't understand the real implications because they still believe that the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates but now that this you know thing has happened something out of left field they're not going to do what they had planned on doing my position was that they never planned on following through with the rate hikes that was just talk they had to pretend that the economy was strong enough to withstand higher rates but then not actually raise rates and proved the reverse I said what they needed was a face-saving excuse to be able to turn on there's the spigots again without having to acknowledge the real reason for doing so now they can pretend that the economy was sound but now we just have these external events that we have to deal with and now they can go back to QE or cut rates without having to acknowledge that it's the weakness in the US economy that is really the driving force behind their decision meantime the price of gold and silver have risen even against a backdrop of a strong dollar or at least the dollar that is less week than other fiat currencies and this is because the turmoil in the aftermath of the vote cause this flight supposedly to quality which included the US dollar but this is really not a flight to safety or flight to quality because the strongest fiat currency is the Japanese yen and it's hard to argue that Japan is a bastion of safety what's really going on what's really behind the rally in the yin and the dollar is the unwinding of carry trades you had a lot of lenguage speculators that were betting on stronger markets and funding those by selling the yen or selling the dollar and then when the surprise vote came out they had to quickly reverse those trades and that's where the buying came from but this really is a gift horse because this rally of the dollar is not sustainable because what just happened in Britain and more importantly the reaction that we're going to get from Washington is very dollar bearish the idea that the Fed is no longer about the hike rates the fact that these hikes are now off the table share they were never really on the table but most people didn't realize that but now they're starting to figure it out but more importantly as we continue to get more weak economic data that continues to surprise all the Bulls who are expecting strong data it's not going to be long before the talk of rate hikes is really replaced first by the talk of rate cuts and then by actual cuts and of course since there's not a lot of room for the Fed to cut rates because it never really raised them the real monetary stimulus is going to come from an enormous round of quantitative easing and you know this recovery if it ever was a recovery I believe has already ended and because the recovery itself was so weak because the average person is in worse financial shape now than he was when the recovery began in fact this is the first recovery ever to be worse than the recession we are in a very precarious position now as we enter the next recession which I believe will be far worse than the great recession that everybody credits the Fed for getting us out of well they've gotten us into something much worse than that and I believe now that you have the breakout in the price of gold and silver we've already had to break out in the mining stocks I think more and more people are going to connect these rather obvious dots and they're going to start buying and remember the only reason that the price of gold and silver went down so much in the last few years was because everybody bought into this recovery nonsense they actually believed but this crazy monetary policy worked that it was a success and that the Fed can actually do what it was pretending that it could actually normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet and based on that fantasy there was not only a lot of selling in gold and silver but a lot of shorting all that is coming to an end I think the shorts are going to cave the sellers are going to be out of this market more and more buyers we're going to come in as they realize that none of that is reality that everything they believed is wrong that quantitative easing didn't work it failed and because it failed we're going to do it again we're going back to zero we may even go to negative and I think that we're going to regain all of that lost ground in a relatively short period of time and then gold and silver are both going to go on and make new highs and if you remember the hyperbole was close to 1900 it's still around 1320 silver which I said just got over $18 that got as high as fifty dollars but if you go back to the point in time where gold and silver we're making those lies a lot of money has been printed since then not only the United States but all around the world and the US economy is in far worse shape in fact many other countries the reason that there was such a violent reaction in the financial markets to Bragg's it was it because Greg's it is so terrible it just shows you how precarious the global financial system is it's all perched upon you know these props of cheap money and central banking it's all based on hype and hope and confidence and when something shakes the confidence you see the immediate result the central bankers are going to do everything they can to keep this bubble from deflating and that means more money printing not only here but around the world and all the naysayers all the people who have been saying that oh the guys like Peter Schiff were wrong you know the Fed was right Bernanke was right you know he was the hero Paul Krugman was right there is no inflation all the people that had these premature victory laps are going to have a lot of egg on their face but in the meantime there isn't a lot of time left for people to buy gold and silver while there are still people foolish enough to sell it because i think the supply of sellers is going to rapidly run dry as more and more people come to the obvious conclusion they should have come two years ago but they did it but all of a sudden people are going to have that aha moment they're going to have that epiphany and it's going to be a race but before that happens if you haven't fully allocated your gold and silver positions i would encourage you to do so now and if you haven't bought any if you've been waiting you know the wait is over and i wouldn't be waiting for lower prices because I doubt we're going to see them the prices are low enough just buy them you know maybe they're higher than they wore don't think oh I missed out because we've had this big run in the last few months prices are still very cheap not only relative to where they've been in the past but they're very cheap rolled to where I think they're going to be in the future
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