저자: The Nvidia Revolution · 외국인
다듬은 글
so the for for the small investor um the most important question to ask yourself is what mistake can I not afford to make joining us now is Mohammad alerian president of Queens College Cambridge alongside Market domination co-host Julie Heyman Muhammad it's great to speak with you thank you for making the time I want to start on comments from president Trump deflecting concerns about a recession this weekend when asked about it instead just saying we have to go through a period of transition where does your recession Outlook stand today so my probability of us recession has gone up from 10% to 25 to 30% so it's not the Baseline it's a fatter taale um the reason why it's not the Baseline has to do with the structural strength of the US economy it also has to do with what we've been promised down the road in terms of deregulation tax cuts and the reality of low energy prices so a bumpy Journey with a grow scare but recession is not my Baseline Muhammad it's Julie here um it's great to see you as always so even for session is not your Baseline there is as we know a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty about where the tariffs will land if they even will land which implies some sort of stability um uncertainty about how long that growth scare or growth shock could last how are you thinking about these issues and the sort of timeline like what does 2025 look like what does 2026 look look like um so it looks less Rosy 2025 than it did before because we seeing the Soft Data weaken um the survey data shows confidence going down at both the household and the corporate level we hearing more and more wait and see we will wait and see before we make these Investments because companies are looking for clarity and the risk is the stall speed that too many people wait and see and that speed speaks to 2026 um so we'll see there are two concerns in the marketplace one is that this unpredictability is not short term it's not a bug but it's a feature and two that the tariffs are not cyclical but they are secular um those are the two main concerns and if they were to play out then the outlook for 2026 would be less um cheerful if you like right that assumption that tariffs are sort of here to stick around you mentioned the hopes that regulation or deregulation will flow through to growth at some point that takes a little longer and then the tax cuts is the other big question here um even if there is an extension of tax cuts if there is not then an additional sort of corporate tax cut I guess what I'm asking is how contingent is avoiding a recession Andor future growth on extension of the the tax cuts and perhaps even deeper Cuts so so everything has become contingent Julie um we're living in a strange world where no matter what you think about growth and we've just been talking about the range of possibilities there's a range of possibilities for inflation as well so you know we have both major macro variables in play right now and it's very difficult to pin them down and that is why you're seeing a complete upending in virtually every single consensus trade that was um common at the beginning of the year everything in stocks in Bonds in currency we've had a complete upending of the conventional wisdom Muhammad you were of course at Pimco Chief investment officer there and if you would this morning I I imagine that there are a lot of people who are in that position right now that are trying to figure out what their playbook is for this environment where you're talking about this bumpy road ahead and the growth scare as well how does that translate through to the investment strategy both from the biggest money that's flowing around in the market all the way to a an investor that is just on the retail side and trying to figure out where they need to sit and wait versus where they need to reposition so the for for the small investor um the most important question to ask yourself is what mistake can I not afford to make um when the world is really uncertain the probability of a mistake goes up um the biggest mistake an investor can make is to be forced out of a good sit position by high volatility so it's really important for small investors to understand the appetite for volatility because we're going to have a lot of volatility going ahead if you are a large institutional investors with the whole range of tools then you can make volatility your friend and you can make it your friend by being increasingly barbell earning high quality yields and one end and then being more opportunistic and much more selective at the other end and part of being o opportunistic is going to take advantage of the overshoots and we're starting to see some overshoots taking place and for the company level I I wonder because you also serve on on the boards of some high-profile companies the number of tariff mentions that we've heard on earnings calls highest that we've seen in 10 years what do you believe companies are trying to get ahead of right now in terms of making sure that they're mitigating the impact that they're anticipating at this juncture as a result of tariffs and whether or not they will be as Extreme as what's anticipated it's really hard it's really hard because first you don't know what the Tariff regime is going to be like even if you knew what the Tariff regime is like which is a big assumption you're not comfortable about the price elasticities both on the supply and the demand side and then even if you knew what the price elasticities are which which translates to can I pass on the higher cost because of tariffs or can I compete in a foreign market even though I'm subject to higher TR tariffs because someone's retaliating against me even if you all this these things can you move can you change your prices fast enough so it's really hard right now and that is why the mention of tariff has skyrocketed in earnings calls and certainly in the board meetings I go to mamed what do you make of the market sort of ignoring the risk of those tariffs uh obviously after the election with the huge run-up inequities that we saw but even until we saw those tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the additional on China put into place the market was somewhat ignoring those risks do you think there was a lesson learned over the past couple of weeks I think there was I think it was a matter of sequencing the market believed that it would get the big bang so if you think of the five areas in that President Trump identified in the ction tariffs deregulation immigration energy and what it was and fiscal policy those those five the belief was that you would get a big bang so that the negative short-term impact of certain measures tariffs what's happening to the public sector would be compensated by the positive impact of lower oil prices deregulation and a favorable tax regime so so the Assumption the market made was that you would get the big bang instead you're getting a sequencing where the negative effects are being felt first and the positive effects are promis in the future and that's what the market is getting used to there's a question as well about whether it's the Trump administration's goal to slow the economy and obviously we've heard treasury secretary Scott Besson talking about the desire to keep the 10e yield as low as possible um so that the FED Cuts rates how true do you think that is so I don't think they want to slow the economy to get the 10-year down I think they want to get the 10year down by favorable Supply shocks that will bring the 10year down um o over the longer term I think what they've realized is the difference between a journey and a destination and that's why you you're starting to hear about little disturbances that's what president Trump called it you just mentioned the treasury secretary he call said detox there's this notion that there may be some bumps along the way but that the the pain is worth the gain down the road and I think that is the new narrative coming out of Washington and the marketplace is just understanding that the sequence of the these five measures um we talked about is not simultaneous it's sequential Muhammad we keep talking around all of this transformation the transition that this Administration wants to see for this economy um do you understand the vision of what they're trying to achieve like what are we transitioning to and is it worth it because clearly they keep talking about pain the economy was doing pretty darn well before all of this started is this a pain that is worth inflicting to achieve whatever they're trying to achieve so I guess first what are they trying to achieve so from what theyve said they're trying to achieve the following a fairer trading system so that us goods are not discriminated against in global trade second they want to detox the economy from its high dependence on the public sector they want to shift from a public sector driven economy to a to more of a private sector driven economy third they want to in enhance the efficiency of government they want to make government not just smaller but more efficient and then fourth they want to unleash the private sector through deregulation and favorable tax treatment so that that is what they're aiming to do so at the end of the day what they're aiming for a more efficient economy driven more by the private sector than the public sector that has operates in a fairer trading environment but as you said getting there is hard and if you hit stall speed which is so to put numbers to this last year the US grew by 2.8% the consensus forecast for this year's growth is 2.5% when we get the revisions which we will it would not surprise me if we go Bel below 2% somewhere below 1 and a half to 2% is where we'll end up stall speed is about 1% so we're getting closer to SP stall speed and if we get to stall speed then the journey becomes too difficult for the destination and that's going to be the big question Julie as we look forward and we haven't talked much about the fed's role in all of this but as we mentioned you did write in a a commentary piece where you talked about um what you see is the need for the FED to change its inflation Target to bring it up above 2% um how urgently do you think they need to do that why do you think they need to do that what what will that achieve so let me just say they're not going to do this in fact CH pal had said it's not on the table he doesn't want to even talk about it I think that's a mistake um you've seen what's happened to surveys of inflation expectations that gone straight up the world understands people understand that we are the structurally changing economy we were even before tariffs and we are now in a sort of turbocharge structurally changing economy if you try to run monetary policy too tight then you will get to stall speed um the the FED becomes not a stabilizer but a contributor to economic volatility and I think that is the main concern now the good news is the Fed is saying one thing and doing the opposite If the Fed truly believed that they could get to 2% on the inflation Target in in a timely manner we would not be talking about how many Cuts next year this year we'd be talking about when is the next hike um so I think the FED is saying one thing and and pursuing the other what I'd like it to do is over time transition to a more sustainable regime Mohammad do you think that fiscal policy will end up forcing the fed's hand quick I mean j p sounded very patient but given the Perils of potentially getting slowing to that stall speed do you think the FED is going to have to act and cut more quickly than it would otherwise that's certainly the market expectations the market has gone from one cut this year you're expecting at least three so the market thinks that the employment part of its Mandate of the fed's Mandate is going to force the FED to cut um we're going to see CPI on Wednesday we're going to have more more inflation data over the next few weeks um we need stable inflation in order for the Fed to respond to the maximum employment part of its mandate otherwise they're not going to deliver to three Cuts Muhammad L and thank you so much for taking the time here with us today as well as our own Julie Heyman great to see you both thank you huge selloff trillion dollars in value lost off the NASDAQ 100 um just want to get your take why yesterday uh we've had these tariff concerns we've had these recession concerns didn't seem to be any big economic reports or anything out why do you think it happened yesterday what's the rules of the game in other words in from a macro perspective in terms of tariffs terms of China export controls I think that's really the one that's getting the tech trade nervous because when you look at export controls what does that mean for NVIDIA see chips selling off AI Revolution a lot of those trades and I think that look I think you're seeing I believe the nervousness that I'm seeing I'd compare to maybe some of those days even during covid in terms of March 2020 I I'd say that level of nervousness but I believe it's misplaced relative to where I view the fundamental stories playing out intact yeah but I mean have't we known about those export controls for a while I mean it just seems like Monday it kind of did it just everybody started to believe that all these things were going to happen tffs export controls and did they just all of a sudden realize that the consumer also stretched which hits the number of these names well I think also maybe like some words about recession you know what does that mean for the consumer every data point sort of micro analyze look what I believe especially in Tech like valuations clearly are expensive if you don't believe what ultimately growth is going to look like and I think right now look you're going through a gut check period for tech stocks but I believe this is not the time to hit the exit Run for the hills I think you look at the winners you believe I think we navigate through I'll call it an uncomfortable time for growth and I think that's where the the opportunities are I just want to be clear really quick we we're talking about the one thing that concerned you it's the export controls you think that's kind of the Catalyst for some of this downturn at the same time I mean you're known as one of the biggest Bulls when it comes to Tech on the street a lot of times you know we have a little fun you're talking about what time it is in the AI party um this is like you said a gut check but I just want to talk to you about the fundamentals uh you often talk about we're in a 10-year cycle when it comes to the AI buildout um do you still believe that that cycle and that that story is still intact yeah look we're in year three of what's essenti mean 8 to 10 year buildout the reason those export controls it sent such really nerve you know throughout the tech trade is that that's something that when it comes to supply chain when it comes to a lot of the Bild up from Nvidia when it comes to the data center point but I believe Bark's going to be worse than a bite and this is not the time that in any sense for me you know we sort of Peel back on the both Theses um I just want to kind of just go a little bit broader let's talk about something like the igv software that seemed to be taken off in the early part of the year but I'm looking right here it pulled back more than 5% yesterday not subject to those same export controls a lot of the their customers when we're talking about the igv they're they're Enterprise customers um not necessarily hit by the same impact from consumers why are we seeing that pullback why are we seeing the The Arc Innovation ETF pulling back why are those things pulling back on on that story of export controls and tariffs I I think it's worrying about the self-filling prophecy in other words if Enterprises cut back does any sort of AI spend that cloud spend sort of cut back when you look at Oracle last night I mean Oracle strong in terms of data center in terms of AI spend but Frank I just think right now we're going through one of those periods where Good's bad bad's worse but that does create create the opportunities for the names you want to own as we're looking at this it seems to be a rotation away from these mag S names uh we're going to talk a bit more about that in just a second we're going talk about what's coming up but first I want to go back deep seek is that still hanging on the tech trade is that still impacting some parts of this I think lingering but I do think it's More's come out about that I think that maybe the less nervousness in terms of what that means in terms of Nvidia and the overall build out but it does speak to is there a the coupling going on between the China trade and US tech trade and I think that's something you're even see see in terms in Hong Kong and more and more of the focus on China attack but no doubt I think deep seeks out there and it puts more pressure in terms of Beltway export controls is that a shot across the bow I think that's how you sort of tie it all together
Comments 0