저자: Cory · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 하락추세 지속으로 지지선(380) 이탈, 370 및 갭 메우기 가능성 언급. 나스닥100·다우·러셀2000 모두 약세 흐름이며 하락추세 유지 전제. 엔비디아는 150 목표가 도달, 바닥 가능성과 반등 시 상승 저항 제시. 테슬라·애플·에너지 등도 지지/저항 중심 기술적 분석. 확정적 방향보다 가격 돌파 확인 후 대응 강조.
다듬은 글
y and today in the stock market we do see a continuation of the downtrend as we are starting to see volume pick up and we're losing some critical support levels first up let's today in spy we were down 0.81 percent and we did see spy closing below that support level at 380 so the bulls no longer have the advantage of that support zone and the bears can now use that level as a resistance so for that reason the bulls are going to evacuate down to the next leg lower at 370 which is also that gap fill right around 369 and while we do have a gap above that 401 and a gap below at 369 it is more likely we are going to fill the down gaps while we have the advantage of the downtrend so just a quick recap is there's two very clear scenarios on where we're going from here and that is that fresh brand new lower low where we're going to break down and go down this by 350 and we are going to likely do that over the next couple of weeks or we are going to see the bulls try to make a stand put in some type of high or low situation and then get the bullish breakout to a higher high and start breaking through all of this critical resistance and go up there and battle the big bear now keep in mind we do have the advantage of a very strong downtrend so the bulls have a lot to prove going against the trend so if we do get a bullish breakout against all of this resistance and against the strong downtrend that could start to start a lot of conversations that possibly a bottom is in because we're starting to see some big money coming back into this market i can assure you that no small money retailers are going to move the market against the bear trend so if we do get a bullish breakout that is not something that i would ignore so just out of curiosity there is clearly the scenario where we're going down to 350 and that next leg lower or the scenario where we bounce off a higher low and get the bullish breakout which scenario do you prefer in which scenario do you think is likely going to play out more often than not the majority are usually going to end up being wrong so if too many people start stacking up their trades for one move or the other we are likely going to get the opposite move so just keep all of that in mind as we go into the next couple of weeks of trading because so far the bulls have not lost the possibility of a higher low even though the bears do have all the advantage and we definitely want to respect the strong downtrend as i always tell you the trend is your friend and this is a very strong downtrend so you are going to have a very difficult time in this market if you continue to bet against the trend until we get confirmation in the price action that the trend has reversed in order to get that confirmation we will need that higher high breakout and it will need to be a very impulsive breakout so that will be the breakout on spy above 394.
so right now there's only two critical levels i would be paying attention to and that's the downside support at 370 in the gap fill at 369 because if we break below that we are very likely going for that next leg lower at 350 or at least down to re-test the previous low just above 362. the critical resistance to the upside is all the way back above about 390 to 394 and i would not mess around in this chop zone between about 370 and 390 because it's going to be a very volatile ride and we could get a lot of choppy price action to confuse the majority before we get the real move but if you wait for the breakout above 390 to 394 it's going to be a lot smoother ride or the breakdown below 370.
so try not to get chopped around always put yourself in a position where you have great risk reward and the probability is on your side or at least you know very quickly if you're wrong about the trade and you can manage your risk accordingly don't make too many bets in between these whipsaw zones because that's where everybody is going to get beaten up and make a lot of losses that are unnecessary just because you're not willing to be patient for a better setup so without a doubt we're seeing increasing volume so we are going to know very soon which scenario is going to play out and there's no reason to bother guessing which scenario is going to play out just follow the price action breakdown through support or the breakout above resistance and then act accordingly if you don't want to wait for the confirmation then at least go in the direction of the trend which is still lower so we should be favoring the downside scenario until the bulls prove otherwise which will require that breakout above 394.
if we do get the bull breakout we should have no trouble filling the gap at 401 and i would expect a lot of bears to show up at that level so if the bulls can break out above that zone it will trigger a short squeeze which could easily send us back up to retest the daily highs at 417. so just to recap the next couple of weeks are going to be very very volatile and we are going to see a very large move in the stock market if you don't want to miss it you need to know these critical zones and follow price action accordingly if you're guessing which move is going to happen you are not trading correctly and you're not going to be doing this for very long so know the breakdown through support or the breakout above resistance and have a trade plan that manages risk and can trade in either direction and that is how you trade a volatile market and that is how as a trader you make money no matter where the market goes from here in the nasdaq 100 triple q's we were down 1.24 and the triple q's did close that gap to the downside at 277 so there is only one gap remaining which is the gap above right around 299.
now you can't just assume because the down gap filled that we need to instantly reverse course and go fill the up gap because it's still possible we do make that next leg lower and then go fill that gap at a later date but i do have a very high degree of confidence that that gap is going to get filled and i do believe it is going to get filled in the next couple of months but that is not a trade plan that is just a hunch based on where that gap is and that we're very likely going to test that resistance zone so right now you can clearly see the triple q still have the possibility of forming a higher low as long as we're above 269 so the break below 269 will be the price action breakdown that we're going to the next price target lower at 258.
to get bullish you need to see a higher low bounce and then break all the way back above all of this resistance and clear that previous high at 297 which will be the gap fill scenario so in the triple q's by the time the gap fills that is likely going to be a very impulsive rally higher because you will see a lot of bears getting short squeezed because there are going to be bears showing up right around 287 and 291 so get a lot less bearish if price action breaks above that zone and then get a lot more bearish once we get up to that resistance right around 302 because that is where the big bears are going to show up and you're much better off hanging out with the big bears because small bears are not moving this market if we do get the bullish breakout above the 50 ema we'll see the decisive price action breakout and then we need to come back out and retake out this high right around 315 and then we can say the bear market is likely ending and we're reversing the downtrend until this price action happens it is a downtrend until it's not so buckle up and enjoy the ride and get comfortable seeing lower highs and lower lows until we see a bullish price action breakout on the dow jones we were down 0.72 percent and the dow jones did close the gap right around 307 and we still do have a little bit more gap to fill just below right around 300 down to about the previous support around 297 and below 297 you're looking for that volatile bear market leg lower down to about 276.
you could get more bullish in the dow jones if we can clear resistance at 311 and our 20 simple moving average at 314 but you will have strong resistance at the trend line right around 320 and the gap fill at 323. the bullish breakout will be the breakout above the gap fill so look for that confirmation before you start getting bullish or at least set your risk at any of the strong support if you are taking long trades because you are going against the trend so you need to lock your profits quickly at resistance and not get overly greedy trying to swing long trades in a downtrend it's very obvious these are downtrends and it's very obvious that nothing has happened in the price action to tell us these downtrends are ending anytime soon but obviously that is subject to change very quickly if we do get those bullish breakouts and then we will act accordingly on the russell 2000 iwm etf we were down point seven eight percent and we did close below that support zone at 170.
so it does leave the small caps open to come back down the retest low at 164. anything above 164 is a higher low with the bull breakout being that breakout above 178. if we get the bear breakdown below 164 look for the next leg lower at 156 and if we get the bull break out above 178 look for strong resistance at 180 and the gap fill right around 184 and the bull breakout will be above that gap fill so you can get a lot more bullish if we see price action breaking that resistance zone on the rk etf we were down 3.93 and the arc dtf did come back down to the resistance trendline breakout which is a support zone right around 39 and we did fully close the gap below if we continue lower we'll be looking for a retest of the previous low at 36.5 and below that you're looking for the next leg lower at 33.7 the bullish breakout is two consecutive closes back over 47 and not any sooner than that so stay bearish as long as we're below 47 in the rktf on the vix we were up 1.95 percent and intraday the vix did try to break out back above 30 but clearly got rejected but overall the vix is still in this consolidation of lower highs and higher lows so we are going to get that very volatile breakout in either direction over the next couple of weeks which i fully expect to see happening soon so you're getting a lot more bullish if the vix starts crushing below 24 and you're getting a lot more bearish if the vix starts breaking out above 30 and that is going to open up the door for our next leg lower and possibly capitulation on bitcoin we're currently down just over 6 percent and we're trading back down to that previous low of support which is right around 19 000 and this is the extremely critical support the bulls need to hold because if we break below this support we are going to see the bitcoin bears driving bitcoin all the way down to about 12 000 you can't just assume the support level is going to break even if we do get a wick below this level so wait until price action starts clearly slicing through here and closing below this support to get a lot more bearish otherwise this could turn into what could be a double bottom on the breakout back over 22 000 so you're getting bearish below 19 000 and you can get a lot more bullish if the support level holds and we get a clear breakout back above 22 000.
on nvidia stock we were down right around two and a half percent today and nvidia finally hit our price target down here at 150 and we have been waiting for this price target to hit on video for many many months now so we are finally there and it's now decision time on whether or not this was actually going to be the bottom in this stock or this is just a bump in the road before we go down to 125.
i have strong reasons to believe that 150 on nvidia is very close to what could be the bottom in this stock so while i can't tell you with the price action or the trend that this is the bottom because it's clearly still looking bearish and like it could head lower i do have very strong convictions that this will be a strong support and possibly even very close to the bottom on this stock so for that reason if you are wanting to do so you could set this price target as a risk level and then manage risk some percent below that level knowing that if it breaks down you're likely going down to 125.
but there are a lot of gaps to the upside that are likely going to get filled over the next few years and i do believe this could be the turning point in this stock if we start to get a strong bounce off this level so if we start to bounce off 150 you're looking for bull breakouts back over 161 and 170 and then we will have strong resistance right around 177 and the gap fill at 181 if we can get all the way back above all of that resistance while bouncing off of 150 we are likely going to see a pullback that will be a buying opportunity before we go on a very impulsive bull rally so essentially if we start to see price action that looks something like this that would be our opportunity to get long on nvidia for quite some time as we have a lot of gaps to the upside to fill but if you want to be a lot more cautious just wait for some confirmation of price action to break through some of this resistance but just be aware that if you are doing that you're getting closer to resistance which is going to favor short trades and you're getting farther away from your long support which is going to be a risk level if you are taking long trades on tesla stock we were down 1.76 and tesla did fill the gap below at 663 installs a very small gap to the upside right around 696 that hasn't yet filled as we've been discussing in many stocks in many sectors these are likely going to be very important times to pay attention to and you can clearly see tesla stock is in a very tight consolidation with the bull breakout being above 775 and the bear breakdown being below 620.
another critical resistance to pay attention to is right here at 700 and then we do have resistance as well at 743 and the 50 ema at 761. downside support will be the breakdown below 663 to re-test the low at 639 retesting the previous daily low at 620 and below 620 the next leg lower is at 5.71 on apple stock we were down 1.8 percent as apple did get very close to closing the gap at 133 and almost closed back above 137 by the end of the day but failed to do so by about a quarter so from here apple still has the bear trend and it's still very likely going to fill the gap at 133 even though there's no guarantee when that gap has to get filled while we have the bear trend it is very likely going to get filled so look for strong support at 133 in the previous low at 130 and if we break below 130 you're looking for the next leg lower down here at 120.
the bullish breakout will be back over 140 and then getting back over about 143 for a retest of the 50 ema at 146 and resistance at 150. this is still a downtrend so wait for that bullish breakout before you start getting bullish in apple stock on the financial sector we were down 0.88 as it does look like we're bouncing off of this previous support and we did close one of the gaps above so the question from here is even though we are in the bear trend are we going to hold support and try to go close that gap above at 33.7 it is still a downtrend so your risk level is very clearly this support zone at 30.8 so know that if you are taking long trades you will want to get more cautious of the next leg lower on a break down below support on the industrial sector we are up 0.31 percent and the industrial sector is still closing below all the moving averages and still has a bear trend but we are seeing some relative strength around this support so if we do start to bounce from here you will want to target those gaps above on the healthcare sector we were down 0.23 percent today and so far it looks like the healthcare sector is still trying to hold that bullish breakout but needs price action to get back over the 50 ema so that will be your bullish price action breakout on the energy sector we were down just over 2.1 percent still clearly getting rejected from resistance and coming back down the test of support at 70 if we lose that support look for the next leg lower otherwise it could be a double bottom that could send us to go close some of the gaps above so jump it back over the s p 500 over the next couple of weeks you are going to see a very large move in the stock market and only price action will confirm which direction that's going to be we still have the benefit of a very strong downtrend so don't rule out the possibility that we are going to make the next leg lower until we see the bulls proving it in the price action and breaking the downtrend this is a bear market until it's not so get used to seeing lower highs and lower lows until we lose the bear trend and you will do a lot better in this market if you have realistic expectations in your following price action and trend always be patient use great risk management and do not get whipsawed between support and resistance also don't forget that i do 'm doing entry updates and analysis and bringing new trade ideas to trading you
댓글 0