저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 고용 강세가 유지되는 동안 시장은 완만히 오를 수 있으나, 조정 시 신저가 비율 등 리스크 신호를 주시해야 한다. [주제] 시장 상황 - 인플레이션을 암세포, 연준의 금리 인상을 항암치료에 비유하며 경기 연착륙 기대를 설명 - 상품 인플레이션 붕괴, 소매 재고 누적 등 진단이 최근 개선됐다고 언급 [주제] 고용 지표(연속실업수당청구건수) - 랄프 빈스의 Risk On/Off 모델: 39주 연속실업수당청구 신저가 시 주식 매수, 신고가 시 매도 - 1980년 이후 42년간 S&P500 전환 신호 14회 중 정확도가 매우 높다고 평가 - 현재 노동시장은 매우 강해 주식시장 상승 신호 유지 [주제] 밸류에이션 모델 - S&P500 이익수익률(12개월 주당순이익/주가)과 90일 T-bill 금리 비교 - 1980년 이후 매수 신호 18회 중 16회 적중, 1987년 폭락·닷컴 버블 붕괴·금융위기를 회피했다고 평가 - 현재 모델상 매수 구간 [주제] 리스크 신호 - 인플레이션 조정 주당이익(S&P500 구성종목) 올해 마이너스 전환, 과거 2차대전 이후 마이너스 전환은 증시 악재였음 - 1987년 폭락 몇 달 전에도 마이너스 전환이 있었다고 경고 - 배당 지표는 아직 긍정적이나, 신용잔고·경제활동·시장 폭(breadth)은 우려 요인 [주제] 매도 조건 - 하락장에서 신저가 종목 비율이 전체 종목의 4%를 넘는 고거래량 하락이 나오면 빠져나와야 한다고 제시 - 현재까지는 그 수준에 도달하지 않음, 조정은 매수 기회로 봄 [주제] 종목 및 시청자 Q&A - 트윌리오(Twilio): 52주 신저가권, 실제 GAAP 이익이 나기 전까지 저평가 상태 유지 전망, 상승은 제한적 - 소파이(SoFi): 약 6달러 수준, 너무 싸서 매도하기 어렵다는 시청자 의견에 동조 - 언급된 기타 종목은 없음 [주제] 출연자 전망 - 고용이 강하게 유지되는 한 향후 몇 달간 시장이 완만히 상승할 수 있다는 중립~약한 강세 전망 - 과도한 낙관은 경계
다듬은 글
how do we get our arms around this frustrating moment right now the stock market's like a chemotherapy patient we've got a cancer is called inflation and the federal reserve is trying to kill the cancer desperately but dr powell's treatments also hurt the economy we're hoping that the fed can contain inflation before the economy heals over and the diagnosis has gotten better in the last couple of months with commodity inflation collapsing retail gluts all over the place as nordstrom said this very evening but in the end we don't know how aggressive the fed will be going forward which makes it hard to figure out where this market's ultimately headed at times like this i find when the fundamentals are this murky i like to fall back on technical analysis that's why tonight we're going off the charts with someone new with the help of ralph vince he's a brilliant technician who's been programming trading systems for all sorts of fun since the early 80s and has an incredible grasp of the big picture just as important he was personally recommended by larry williams godfather mark historians who's done so well for us in mad money right now vince feels relatively good about the market he's drifting gradually higher he'd be a buyer to weakness however he's also noticed some ugly cross currents that you need to keep an eye on if they worsen he'd be inclined to change his views so i want exposure to all his different thoughts because i think that they are so important let's start with employment because this is of course the number one driver of any given bull market the employment to stock prices correlation is incredibly strong there are a lot of different ways of measuring the elephant that is employment but vince likes to look at continuing jobless claims unlike the monthly labor report we get jobless claims every week so the date is timely and when you look at continuous jobless claims in particular they aren't subject to insane revisions down the road this chart shows continuing jobless claims going back to the 1980 with vince's risk on or off model overlaid in blue his model says you go along the stock market when the 39 week continuing jobless claims make a new low and you've got to go negative when continuing jobless claims start making new highs using this buy or sell trigger has been very accurate for the last 42 years in fact going back to 1980 is batting a thousand since 1980 it's identified these short to long switches or vice versa on the s p 14 times and do you know that it's been right every single time even if there are moments well that it looks that makes you nervous right now vince says the continuing claims data remains in bull mode even though we're very worried about a fed man data procession we've got an insanely strong labor market here that's good news for the border economy even if it makes the fed more likely to raise rates aggressively down the road but this stubbornly resilient job market also offsets some of the damage from these rate hikes of course employment is not the be-all and end-all you also got to keep an eye on earnings and dividends and the market's overall valuation so i want you to check out this chart of the s p 500 overlaid with vince's valuation model he looks at the s p's earning yield that's the 12 month trailer earnings per share divided by the share price basically the price journey is multiple reverse along with the dividend yield then it compares them to the yield you get from 90 day treasury bills going back to 1980 vince's valuation models fired off a buy 18 times and while it's not perfect it's been right 16 times out of 18.
i regard that as pretty darn accurate plus as you can see his valuation model would have kept you out of the crash of 87 and the dot-com collapse and the financial crisis that's pretty darn good well kept you out of the internet boom in the late 90s where you could have made a lot of money other than that i'm calling this thing pretty darn reliable more importantly right now this valuation model says the market remains a buy it's in risk on mode so to speak but and this is a very big but kind of a sir mix a lot but if you want to get graphic what's what's driving bids crazy is that we've also got some disturbing big picture negatives so check out this chart which shows both the s p 500 and the inflation-adjusted earnings per share of the s ps components going back to 1880 1880.
right now vince points out that inflation adjusted earnings have gone negative this year strongly speaking that is a bad sign in fact going back to world war ii inflation-adjusted earnings going negative has always spelled trouble for the stock market even in the 87 crash which was mostly about the market getting overheated we briefly saw the inflation-adjusted earnings for the s p go negative a few months before that meltdown so this is not good as for right now this is not some blip vince notes that inflation-adjusted earnings have been negative for a big chunk of the year makes sense inflation is ridiculously high and corporate earnings growth has taken a hit while some of his other models are positive in the market here this inflation-adjusted earnings signal i'm calling it ominous let me give you one more take a look at this chart of dividend payouts per share in light blue plotted next to the s p 500 in dark navy going back a few years historically dividends per share of track very strongly with the broader stock market companies boost their payouts when times are good and cut them when times are bad so they're an extremely tight correlation not long ago vince points out the dividends per share turn positive after briefly going lower and these switches can often stay positive for a protracted period of time that's a good sign for the market on the other hand vince doesn't like what he's seeing in terms of margin balances or overall economic activity or even the market's breadth but when he when he looks at the positives especially employment he thinks this market can keep drifting higher in the next several months it's one major caveat well things are okay now they could go south in a hurry which is why vince is watching the percentage of new lows on any given decline that percentage goes above 4 of total issues during a high volume decline then he says you need to get out that hasn't happened yet and we really haven't gotten close not even yesterday when the action was pretty ugly without that he says any pullbacks they're buying opportunities the bottom line the charge is interpreted by a man named ralph vince whom we really like that this market can keep drifting higher for the next few months as long as employment stays strong please don't get too complacent as there are signs that not all is well as we go into the final third of the year can we start with victor in california victor jimmy chill it's such a pleasure to talk to you i want to thank you for being the champion of retail investors my friend that's what i want to be thank you absolutely and because of you i've decided to buy more games top and bad thousand beyond shorts never closed boom not really but that's all right let's go to alex in oregon alex monsignor uh we missed the notoriety of having your daughter live in our state uh well she might be back someday she truly loves it good to hear from you again what's going on hey uh could you help me with twilio i've had it high i've had it low and it's a 52-week low can you give me some direction there yeah until as much as i like jeff lawson i love the product until they start actually making real gaap money actual earnings i think that twilio is going to remain uh let's just say under undervalued but not to go higher and i thank you for the kind words about me and my daughter let's go to tom in louisiana tom hey jim good afternoon uh about so far so far is too cheap at six i don't know when it's gonna turn i know a lot of people feel that it's down 60 and therefore it's a loser and they're going to be selling it until the end of the year but i myself think that sofi is too cheap to sell okay the chart suggests that this market can drift higher for the next few months as long as employment stays strong and that's the key thing but let's caveat it with by taking some caution into the realm watch where we have money head including i've done my homework on adcore and i'm ready to turn in my research on the stock that you asked about and every morning i wake up very early and notice one shocking pattern i'll reveal what it is and how you can position your thinking to fight it and of course all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round so stay with kramer you
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