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How do you feel about US dollar? I somewhat have a view on US Okay, sure. No, maybe I own it mainly because the world thinks that the US dollar is a safe haven. We have legendary investor Mr. Jim Rogers. He's well known for his contrarian views and his insights on commodities. Thank you, Jim, for joining us in today's episode.
I am delighted and flattered to be here. Thank you. Thank you so much. I want to ask you how have you been in the last few weeks? I've been fine as far as I know. Maybe you know something I don't know. I'm busy, but I'm here and quite happy, quite content. I wanted to, you know, invite you in because the last time we spoke, you suggesting you know how gold works and stuff.
I want to get a bit more insights. And especially we've seen gold run up 160% over the last 5 years, 40% just in the last 1 year. So, maybe we could lead off with the topic on gold. With this run up, do you think that's a like increase or big wave up and what are the reasons? Well, I own gold, I own silver.
If they go down, I hope I buy more. I'm not going to sell no matter what. I want my children to own my gold and silver someday because everybody should have some gold. Everybody should have some silver in case. Physical gold or gold ETFs or do you feel that there's not too much of a difference? how they want to own them.
I own physical gold. Uh that's easy for me, but everybody has to decide. There are many ways. Paper gold is very easy to own. Mhm. But physical gold can be easy to own, too. If you have a place to store it. Mhm. Easy place to store it. I understand. Uh and with this search up, what were key reasons of this big momentum in gold?
Well, the main reason that silver and gold go up in spurts especially is because because people get more worried about the world, whether it's war or inflation, money printing, debt. There are many reasons that people can get worried. When they get especially worried, historically, gold and silver have always been ways to protect yourself or to hide.
Been going on for hundreds of years. We didn't invent gold and silver this century. It's been happening a long, long time. Mhm. Now, news of central banks moving towards gold, is it? Like in diversifying away from US dollar. Well, whenever there's a reason for people to get worried, one of the first places they always turn is gold and silver.
I own gold and silver. I don't plan to sell, but I own because I know that if there's a crisis, gold and silver might be useful. Mhm. Even with this search up, do you feel it's not time to cash a little bit in or how do you actually approach the game of holding gold? I'm not selling. I repeat, I am not selling.
I'm not buying now because I don't like to buy when things go straight up. Mhm. But if gold and silver go down, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more. I'm also curious to get your insights because recently war events and stuff, gold prices climbed and they kind of corrected backwards down down to 4,700.
What could be some reasons in your opinion? Well, any market doesn't have to be gold and silver. Any things that runs up from whatever reason usually has a correction because people who have owned it sell, they say, "Wow, um I made a lot of money. Let's take some profits." And they sell and cut back.
This is the way markets work. It's nothing to do with what I'm telling you. It's the way markets have always worked and probably always will. So, if you have a huge spurt in anything, it's likely to have a correction. Whatever the item is. Whatever the reasons. There always corrections. And in these corrections, uh it could present opportunities for someone to accumulate.
Do you feel that way? Everybody has to decide. And between two of them? Recently, silver was down from its high and gold was making new highs, so silver was better. Mhm. But now silver's running up, too. So, I don't have a preference right now. Mhm. It would just depend on what happens in the market.
The market will tell me which one to buy. Or do you check like some like indexes which compare the gold-silver ratio historically to I am usually aware of it. It does not I don't think it has been my deciding factor, but I am certainly aware and try to be aware of all the facts when I'm investing. Uh my main insight is that when people get panicky Mhm.
on the upside or the downside, it is usually a signal to step back and assess what's going on. It's usually not good to buy into a panic or sell into a panic because there will be a better chance later. That's one of the things I have learned after making many mistakes over the years. Just be careful when there's a lot of movement up or down.
Be careful. I I see the silver price volatility it's it's quite huge. Well, I'm not buying when silver goes straight up. I own silver. I hope if it goes down, I'm smart enough to buy more. Mhm. So, with it correcting back now from 110, if I'm not wrong, to now 70s, uh would you see this correction as deep enough?
I wish I were smart enough to answer that question. I do know that when something goes straight up, it usually has a correction, sometimes significant. And if that happens, I hope I'm smart enough to buy more if it's a big correction. I'm certainly not going to sell my silver or my gold. Mhm. Since on point of commodities, I'm also curious to hear your insights on oil.
Oil is something that's right now in the news because of Middle East war. And maybe in your experience being financial markets, how do you view oil's run up? Not not they are 50% in this year. What are your insights on macro environment? Well, whenever there's the threat of war, especially in the Middle East, where it often happens, and many people in the Middle East who don't get along with each other, we all know that oil comes from the Middle East.
And if there's disruption because of war, the price is going to go higher because of disruptions if nothing else. So, I don't like to buy at times like that. Mhm. But many people do realize, "Oh, I better get in while I can." And that's going to happen forever. Certainly in oil. Mhm. Or at least as long as we're an oil-based society.
Do you actively own energy-related businesses or stocks? It's of course better to act when things are calm and nobody cares rather than when there's panic, but everybody should be aware of it. I as I too repeat, I am not buying when there's a run up. Usually don't. I prefer to buy when there's a collapse in something.
And I'm not buying now. I'm not selling. But I always want to own my oil, my gold, my silver, things like that. But I am watching. And now, maybe to the point on on economist getting concerned that high oil prices could cause recessions. Maybe you can share with us a bit on your experience investing through the Gulf War period and stuff.
things are depressed. Are there any areas or markets that right now you have identified as the undervalued or Interesting. I cannot think of anything right now that's extremely undervalued. I mean, maybe agriculture is but it's not extremely undervalued. But as I look around the world it's hard for me to find opportunities right now.
Because nearly everybody's having a good time. And usually when everybody's having a good time it's a time to ask questions and to be worried. To the point of the market expand the topic a bit differently. Right now everything like you mentioned is very richly valued. There are not many opportunities.
Maybe AI is creating a lot of hype and a lot of money circulating in the markets and stuff. I also want to tap on your experience investing through maybe the dot com crash. If we think that in mind, how how do you view what's going on right now? Any stories that you have from that period in the mania of dot com as well as what happened after that?
Well, I just looking back at market history we have had many manias. We have many periods of overconfidence. We've had many periods of despair and depression. Again, we're all human beings. We all have emotions and we react. And when things go wrong we all many people react when things go right. Many people react.
One has to be alert to the moods of the markets. If you don't know the mood look at the market, it'll tell you. If things are shooting up the market is mood is great. If things are collapsing the market mood is despair. The market will tell you what the mood is. Then you have to decide what to do. It is usually or it is often good to go against the mood of the market because as I say we're all human beings.
We all have these emotions but we get over them. We get over them on the upside and the downside. If you aware of that and you strong enough strong enough mentally to act against the tide, you might be successful. Cuz in the dot com run up it was for four five years but and if you are too early going against the tide I think I'm correct to say that I haven't really acted too much in all of this because I see the mania developing and mainly right now I'm watching.
I have a lot of cash. I don't want to jump into a mania. I mean, if you're good at that, you can make a lot of money. On one side or the other but that's that's work. You have to work hard at all of that. And I'm lazy right especially lazy now. And I want to be even lazier and do less. Well, you can look back at everything whether it's railroads railroads were gigantic gigantic mania once upon a time.
Electricity automobiles many things that are new have developed into manias eventually. Many things nearly everything. And I presume that will continue because human beings are still human beings. We get overexcited or over depressed sometimes. Especially when there's something new. AI is new. It's exciting.
It's wonderful. So I I don't know. I understand. I don't mind not knowing. You know, cuz I'm lazy. As of this moment just like you mentioned you're more defensive you hold cash. Yeah. Quite a bit of it. And I guess maybe it's something sing dollars where it's a safe haven at this period. The word safe haven is dangerous.
Everything is a can be a safe haven. Nothing can be a safe haven. But one should find a place that will not be affected too much. One should find a safe haven if you can whatever it is. But even that's not easy. I mean, if silver's a safe haven it goes up a lot. And that's maybe not a good thing for the investor.
Agree. Agree. So uh in in terms of safe havens sometimes speculation starts to come in cuz everybody's going towards there. Previously it was Japanese yen and Swiss francs or so. There have been many safe havens in the in world history. Many. None of them have well, I mean gold and silver have lasted up and down.
But you know, most things have become safe havens eventually become overextended and one has to move away and find something else. I repeat, we're all human beings. That's the problem with investing. That's the exciting part of investing that we're all human beings. What about for US dollar maybe if I branch the topic to a certain direction how do you feel about US dollar?
I somewhat have views on US dollar. I own a lot of mainly US dollars. And I mean I own it mainly because the world thinks that the US dollar is a safe haven. And it has been. It's not anymore. It's the US is the largest debtor in the history of the world. But people still think it's a safe haven. So that's why I own dollars.
Cuz that's what people think. Eventually they will change. At one time they thought the British pound was a safe haven. Many things have been safe havens. At the moment it's the US dollar and that's why I own a lot of them right now. Maybe if I pivot a question to something a bit more fun like between gold, silver, cotton oil and US dollar, which one would you pick of the five heavy with?
Right now I think cotton is probably cheaper on historic basis. I'm not selling my gold. I'm not selling my silver. I'm not selling my US dollars, you know. I own these things. And maybe to round off today's discussion, I'm going to get your views as well on Donald Trump, our president from US. Right now he's making a lot of moves in Middle East.
What would be like one thing about him that you observe or one prediction that you have just to round off our our our our discussion today. Well, you you make the most important observation. He is doing a lot. Mr. Trump The history of Mr. Trump is he has made many many mistakes in his life. Problem with Mr.
Trump is he doesn't I mean, Margaret Thatcher for instance had an underlying philosophy and if something happened we could more or less figure out what she would do. The problem with Mr. Trump is he doesn't have an underlying philosophy. He wakes up, he watches TV decides what's to do which is fine for him but it's not good for the rest of us cuz it makes it more difficult for us to figure out what we should do.
We don't know what he's going to do cuz he doesn't know what he's going to do. Would you have like a interesting prediction of what what he would do or it's it's too unpredictable in the different and any interesting Well, my advice to everybody is be careful. Be alert. Be aware. The best thing is to do to know as much as you can about what's going on in the world.
And that will help you in your decisions. And certainly if the crowd is all going one way ask a lot of questions. Because it's sometimes and often good to go against the crowd if you can. But even that's difficult. So it's never been easy for me anyway. If you know an easy way don't tell. Give me a note. Thank you. Yes, thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you.
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