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last two months I think confirms two of the oldest sayings in Wall Street and one is of course don't try to time the market and two there is a lot of value to diversifying your portfolio uh in this video Jeremy Seagull emphasizes the critical role of diversification investment strategies particularly highlighting the contrasting performance of the S&P 500 and international markets amid ongoing tariff debates Jeremy also discusses a recent shift in the president's tone following an economic downturn suggesting it reflects the influence of advisers and public sentiment regarding economic concerns from the tariff position uh that uh you know Trump now maintains that a lot of these many of these most of these uh are going to be taken off uh you know before that July 2nd uh deadline of resumption of the reciprocal tariffs.
you surprised at the magnitude of this rebound that we've seen? I said we're going for nine days in a row when we haven't done this since 2004, right? Uh yeah. No, I I I I am surprised. I think one one thing that people don't realize is there is there's a huge tailwind. I mean, we know about the headwinds of the tariffs.
There's a huge tailwind of the the 10 12% decline in the dollar for the multinationals. um in terms of uh you know bringing uh profits back from Europe or or elsewhere in the world uh they're going to be enhanced. So some of the some of the tariff problems are are are are going to be offset by the fall in the not all of them and and let's let's very be honest American public has not yet felt the tariffs.
They've they've heard about the tariffs, you know, they're plastered on all the news. Um uh but for a lot of people uh they they say oh rising prices you know I'll believe it you know when I see it and um uh they haven't seen it yet. So, you know, in in many ways there's a lot of talk about the bad effects of the tariff, but at this particular point, American public, even though it's, you know, the polls are not great on that issue, they don't yet reflect the full impact that they will see if Trump stays on the current course.
you think this, you know, US exceptionalism trade which got so talked about over the last month or so with the activity we saw not only in the bond market but because you do mention the dollar. Do you think that was greatly exaggerated that too much was made of that that this is still the place where capital from around the world is going to flow?
We have the best we have the deepest market in the world. We have the brightest and most uh transcendent companies in the world and this is where those monies want to be. Abs, you know, absolutely. Listen, this despite what maybe Trump will say, I mean Trump is only going to be president for three and a half years, the exceptionalism, the uh the the deepest capital markets are the place where innovation where you can market, you know, we we have a pride in innovating, bringing things to market, uh destroying the social order, so to speak, uh you know, disruptive technology, that's all in the United States.
that, you know, surpasses any president that we're going to have. Remember, stocks are longest are our longest term assets. Uh, and really three and a half years. Um, you know, people say, "Oh, you know, it's going to be bad for three and a half years." When you take a look at, you know, how long this the the earning stream of stocks go.
Three and a half years is really a very small part of the present value there. So, you know, whatever you think about whether Trump is going to do good or Trump is going to go bad, the exceptionalism of the US economy surpasses that by far. It's unbelievably resilient. I think more so than many have uh even wondered in their wildest imaginations from co on the other side of that until now and and maybe the worst is is yet to come with the tariffs.
We don't know. But this economy has had a resiliency that I don't think many people expected. And as long as the labor market, professor, hangs in like it appears to be doing, we don't have to talk about recession every conversation, do we? Uh, no. No, we don't have to talk about recession every conversation um that we have.
However, you know, it is still my prediction unless he backs off on these and you know and we get a lot of relief before that July um recession is still a possibility. Um and um you know I think I don't think we could rule it off but I I think the president is be you know if you noticed um he has softened the tone since the April selloff.
um we don't get quite as many wild, you know, up and down accusations one way or the other. I think part of it is his advisers. I think part of it is some discipline from the polls to be honest. And I I still think he listens to the polls and people are very cautious. They're very skeptical that, you know, the mainstream media of course is just blaring, oh rising prices, you're all everyone's going to be poor.
Um, people are waiting to see and he has to he has to listen to what those people are
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