저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 미국 AI 투자와 재정적자로 인한 채권 수요 급증이 금리 상승 압력을 키우며, 전쟁 시 물가·성장 충격 중 어느 쪽이 우세하냐에 따라 글로벌 경기침체 위험이 커질 수 있다. [미국 채권·금리 구조] 미국 재정적자는 GDP 대비 약 6% 수준이고, AI 하이퍼스케일러들의 투자 계획은 작년 약 2000억 달러에서 올해 약 1조 달러 규모로 커지고 있다. 이로 인해 채권 자금 조달 수요가 폭발적으로 늘었다. 반면 중국, 일본, 걸프 국가, 노르웨이 등 전통적 채권 공급자들의 역할은 줄고 있다. 그 결과 헤지펀드 등을 끌어들여야 하고 금리가 상승한다. 이는 프랑스, 영국, 일본 같은 취약국에 전이되며 피드백 루프 위험을 만든다. [전쟁과 수익률 전망] 장기 전쟁 시 수익률(금리)은 성장 둔화로 하락할 수도, 인플레이션으로 상승할 수도 있어 방향 예측이 어렵다. 다만 경기침체 공포가 고금리보다 세계 경제에 훨씬 큰 피해를 준다고 봤다. [일본 엔화 개입] 미국의 세 차례 개입 중 아르헨티나 페소 개입은 매우 성공적, 엔화 개입은 부분 성공, 미국 채권시장 개입은 성공적이지 않았다. 엔화는 156~158 수준으로 160 아래지만 일본 당국(BOJ·재무성·총리실)의 정책 조율이 부족해 강세 확신이 약하다. [아르헨티나] 미국 통화스와프가 페소를 안정시켰고 정치적 동기도 작용했다. 밀레이 대통령은 인플레이션을 잡아 지지를 얻었지만, 이제 성장 개선이 필요하며 지지율은 압박받는 상태다. [중국 경제] 2005~2015년 고성장 후 내부 엔진(과잉투자·부채)이 문제가 되었고, 이를 제때 교정하지 못했다. 코로나 이후 회복도 느렸다. 외부 수출 의존이 커지며 유럽의 중국산 자동차 수입 규제 움직임이 나온다. 일본식 자율수출규제 같은 대응이 없어 외부 엔진마저 둔화 위험이 있다. 해결책은 가계 사회안전망 확충으로 높은 저축을 소비로 돌리고, 비기술 산업을 개선하며, 수출 과잉을 줄이는 것이다. 기술 섹터는 여전히 역동적이다. [출연자 전망 요약] 금리·채권 시장 구조 부담이 커지고 있으며, 특히 AI 투자 붐이 채권시장에 미치는 영향과 전쟁 리스크를 주시해야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
here in the US the main reason for higher profitability is the US itself. This is a fundamental imbalance between all the demand for bond financing from a government that has a 6% GDP deficit and from AI hyperscalers whose investment plans are growing from $200 billion last year to almost a trillion this year.
So, there is a massive demand for financing through bonds, while the reliable providers of that financing—China, Japan, the Gulf countries, Norway—are becoming less reliable. This pushes interest rates up because hedge funds need to be brought in for financing. This exposes vulnerabilities elsewhere: France, the UK, Japan.
And then you find yourself in a very delicate situation where feedback loops can occur. This is where we are today. If war breaks out, I don't know whether profitability will decrease or increase. I really don't know. Ovva. It can fall because growth will suffer , but it can also rise because inflation will suffer.
Is n't that right? Yes. So there is a big question about what will happen to profitability in the event of a prolonged war. And if it falls due to a recession, then believe me, concerns about high yields are nothing compared to fears about a global recession. A global recession will do much more damage to the world economy than high returns.
Ahem. Is Japan out of the woods with the crisis we have with the yen? No one talks about it anymore , so did the help work? The aid worked partially. So, there were three rescues…“ rescue” is a strong word. There were three interventions by the US. See how you make me use this. words. PTSD. That's right.
Someone will make a slice of this , Muhammad. Now they will have problems. There were three interventions. The one with the Argentine peso was incredibly successful. The one with the yen was partially successful. And the one with the US bond market was not at all successful. Of course? So, there were…these three…This one is partially successful.
Well, you know, the yen is at 156, 158. Not exactly where the Japanese wanted it to be, but definitely not at 160, which people think is particularly problematic. But the answer is that Japan needs to get its act together . And everything is simple . The Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance, and the Prime Minister's Office must agree on a common policy.
Now they are all waiting for the other to make the first move. And that's simply not convincing enough for the markets to believe the yen should be stronger. Did the intervention to save the Argentine peso work? Yes, definitely. The presence of the American currency swap mechanism stabilized the currency.
And then the political motivation, because it was politically motivated. This was just before the National Assembly elections, before the parliamentary elections, it worked absolutely perfectly, right? So yes, I think the US views its Argentine intervention as successful, just as they view the intervention in Venezuela as successful.
But that doesn't mean you can repeat it over and over again in other places. I believe that Argentina is a small economy, a small market. You can make a huge impact. The bond market is huge. How about...one last question about Argentina before I ask you about the last topic, China? How is Miley doing?
You know, I talked to him...The last time I talked to him was when inflation had just started to plummet. So the numbers looked great, and his support was growing. It was a time for change due to austerity measures. How is he now? Does it still work well? Is the economy still improving? So, I think he did very well.
He won on the issue of inflation. Inflation has come down, and that has made a big difference. People always want the journey to lead to a better destination in terms of growth. And that better destination has not yet arrived. So his support is under pressure, and he will have to ensure faster economic growth.
You know, he was very, very good at explaining to people that this was a journey to a better destination. And like anyone who has been on a plane for 10-15 hours, you want to land. OK? You don't want to be in the air any longer. And that's exactly the feeling in Argentina right now. It's okay , we were on this journey.
Now we want to land. We want to land not only with low inflation, but also with stable growth. OK. So, China. And here's what I want to ask you about China. I saw the schedule ...maybe I'll find it quickly, and here it is . I was just talking about this with a guest yesterday. Could you show me this graph, please?
And there are many others that show how China's economy is lagging behind. And this Oxford study, it seems, argued that China is no longer expected to catch up with the US anytime soon. The argument is that by 2040, China's economy will only reach about 84% of the US economy. This is until 2040. Many years ago, it seems, people were saying that China's economy would overtake the US by 2020.
So, what is the state of the Chinese economy? What is your position on the debate about whether China will become a bigger economy than the US? This graph perfectly reflects what happened. You see two faults. You see acceleration and growth between 2005 and 2015-16. Then you see some leveling. Then comes COVID and a much longer recovery period.
So, what happened? The first period of incredible growth was fueled by both internal and external engines of economic development. That's when people said that China would catch up with the US and surpass it. Then the domestic engine ran into problems due to heavy debts and overinvestment. Usually, the Chinese authorities are very good at course correction.
But this time they were unable to rectify the situation in time. Mhm. There is a political element here. But they were unable to correct the course. So the internal engine began to slow down, and they relied more and more on the external one. With the onset of COVID, they took a hit, but it took much longer to recover.
Again , there was none of the learning and course correction that we were accustomed to during the “Chinese economic miracle” period prior to 2015-2016. And now they still have a problematic internal engine, but the external engine has become too big for the rest of the world. This is why Europe is looking for ways to stop car imports from China or at least slow them down, as it is completely destroying the European car industry.
And I was very surprised that China didn't do what Japan did in the 60s and 70s , which was voluntary export restrictions. To preserve market share, you tell the world, "I will now voluntarily limit my exports." So don't impose protectionist measures against me, because I will do it myself. They don't do that.
So, they risk seeing the external engine slow down as well. This can be fixed. This is entirely fixable. But for some reason, we are not seeing the learning and course correction that China was famous for in the decades leading up to 2015-2016. How exactly to fix it? So, at the domestic level, we simply need to solve the problem of the debt burden.
You have to provide households with better social safety nets so that huge savings—and China has a very high savings rate right now— can flow into the economy. Externally, you simply cannot continue dumping your goods because you will get a very negative reaction to it. They have a very dynamic technology sector .
We must not forget this. The technology sector is very dynamic and growing. But they need to fix the situation with non-tech industries within the country and be more responsible in exports. Of course. I have clarified all the questions I had for you, Muhammad. It's always nice to chat. Are you traveling?
When are you going somewhere next? So, I'm going to the Middle East next week. Although, it will be this week, since today is Sunday. It will be interesting to see this. But I have to tell you, this journey, and we're talking
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