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TSMC 3분기 실적 콘퍼런스콜 분석. 매출 전분기 대비 133% 증가(자막상 수치, 원문 확인 필요), HPC 비중 51%·스마트폰 34%, 매출총이익률 57.8%, 영업이익률 47.5%로 업계 최고 수준 마진 강조. 설비투자(자본지출) 64억 달러는 보수적이며 공급 제약이 가격 상승 압력을 만든다고 해석. 재고일수 증가는 선제적 빌드업으로 긍정적이라고 설명.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. all right I know many investors are interested in the semiconductor industry right now because of how artificial intelligence is changing and accelerating Investments worldwide and semiconductors are the category that are benefiting as a resul great company to evaluate to consider the health of the semiconductor industry overall so in this video I wanted to take a deeper dive into Taiwan semiconductors man management conference call with Wall Street analyst on October 17th because of the insights it provides not only about the company itself but also the broader industry and how developments in artificial intelligence are progressing the company's CFO came on to say that their revenue in the third quarter increased by 133% from the previous quarter year-over-year that rate of growth was much better and that growth was supported by smartphone and AI related demand the surprising part there is smartphone we all know that AI related demand is increasing but strong smartphone demand was a surprising note that came out from Taiwan semiconductor from their recent quarterly results the gross profit margin increased again by 4.6% sequentially to 57.8% mainly reflecting higher capacity utilization rate and cost Improvement efforts now the reason why higher capacity utilization rates improve a company's profit margin is because the facility is already there it's already experiencing a depreciation expense it's already depreciating over the year and so if you're utilizing it more effectively if you're getting the full use out of that facility you're getting better value they already pay the rent for that facility they already pay for the air conditioning they already pay for the maintenance Etc and so when you're producing at Full Tilt you get a lower cost per unit because many of those costs are going to happen whether or not you produce 75% 85% or 95% capacity so the closer you get to 100% capacity the lower is your cost per unit the reason why companies don't always go to 100% capacity is because the error rates start to increase the closer you get to 100% capacity and the more difficult it is to reach 100% capacity so companies like to operate at lower than 100% especially when demand is not that strong they don't like to go all the way to 100% but when demand is as strong as Taiwan semiconductor is experiencing they can really push the limits to their capacity utilization rates to facilitate greater production greater yields and thereby generating greater operating profit and gross profit margins speaking of operating profit margin that also increased by 5% to 47.5% and return on Equity was 33.4% I've been saying t's profit margins companywide whether it's gross profit margin operating profit margin regardless of the margins you look at they are industry-leading margins you will be hard pressed to find a manufacturing company that can generate profit margins at the level of Taiwan semiconductor they are very good at what they do Best in Class the CFO went on to say that HPC which stands for high performance Computing in other words egment increased by 11% from the previous quarter and it accounted for 51% of their total revenue in the third quarter smartphone increased by 16% quarter over quarter to account for 34% one of Taiwan semiconductors primary customers in the smartphone segment is Apple so this could indicate that Apple ordered a great more of its smartphones to be produced from Taiwan semiconductor or the work from Taiwan semiconductor for uh chips inside of those smartphones because Apple foresaw great demand for this next generation iPhone that just came out now the company's balance sheet is in great shape they have cash and marketable securities of $69 billion that's in US Dollars and that's really helpful when you're operating a semiconductor manufacturing business because it's very Capital intensive each new facility costs billions perhaps over billion dollar to build and maintain and all the research and development that goes into generating the leaps in technology it's expensive and so you need capital and Taiwan semiconductor has the capital on the balance sheet if it needs to deploy it if it finds areas of opportunity it can deploy and it has deployed that Capital they go on to say that inventory days increased by 4 days to 87 days primarily due to the pre-build of its N3 and a N5 Wafers so what does inventory days mean well the company has a certain amount of inventory and they compare that with how many sales they're making every day and then they compare and say well how many days of inventory do we have on hand if we were to not produce any more if we were just to rely on our existing inventory in 87 days they would run out of inventory if they stopped producing and so when you see inventory days increase by 4 days the next question becomes why is the inventory increasing there's two reasons why inventories increase from an investor perspective one is very good and one is very bad the one that Taiwan semiconductor is saying the reason why they're saying their inventory increased is for a good reason they're building inventory ahead of time time in anticipation of an increase in sales so that's one reason you build up inventory right imagine yourself some of you are small business owners that are watching this if you know right now we're entering into the holiday season you might be building up your inventory in anticipation of strong sales during the holiday season that would be a good thing right another reason why your inventory might be increasing is because you ordered more than your customers want to buy you miscalculated demand and so you ordered 100 units when maybe your customers only wanted 25 and so now you're stuck with more inventory than you want that's a bad reason right or you invested to create this new product that you thought your customers were going to want but turns out your customers don't want that product and so you're stuck with more inventory and so that would be a bad reason for inventory increasing for Taiwan semiconductor it's the good reason it's that they're anti anticipating strong demand for their products for car companies inventory is increasing for a bad reason right they overestimated demand especially for electric vehicles they overestimated how many people wanted electric vehicles and so they built up way too much and now those inventories are piling up and that's a bad reason for inventory increasing so whenever you hear a company talk about inventory increasing it needs to have a follow-up answer it's the reason why inventory is increasing one could be a very good reason the other can be a very bad reason all right and I'll end with the final comment on Capital expenditures the company saying that in US dollar terms their third quarter Capital expenditures total $6.4 billion and compared to the revenue that the company is generating and compared to the demand for semiconductors that's anticipated over the next several years this is a conservative Capital EXP expenditure total from Taiwan semiconductor other companies in its category Intel you can see are spending much more in capital expenditures and in 2024 the muted amount of capital expenditures from Taiwan semi conductor has been surprising even though they increased it from where they initially thought they were going to spend this year investors and Market participants were expecting significantly more investment from Taiwan semiconductor considering the boom in demand and so they're taking a more cautious approach they are increasing their Capital expenditures building new facilities upgrading existing facilities to match the increase in demand but they're doing it conservatively which for industry participants is a good sign lower Supply if you remember from your basic economics class supply and demand right when Supply is lower demand is and demand is increasing that's going to create higher prices for their products and that's going to be true for the industry because Taiwan semiconductor is vital for the overall Supply in the industry if they are not increasing Supply by as much as demand is increasing that means that there's going to be upward pressure on average selling prices which is good for the companies it's good for profit margins in the stre wid