저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 가격은 회사 실적보다 투자자 심리의 과도한 낙관·비관에 의해 단기적으로 크게 좌우되며, 낙관기엔 위험을 줄이고 비관기엔 매수하는 것이 유효하다. 장기 투자자는 심리 변동을 무시할 수 있지만, 단기 매매와 정확한 시장 타이밍은 매우 어렵다. 2005~06년 리스크 회피 판단이 2008년 금융위기 회피로 이어졌다는 경험을 언급하며, 시장 환경의 온도를 읽는 감각을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
What matters is not the quality of the thing you're investing in, but whether the price is high or low relative to the intrinsic value. And it's from the fluctuations of price around the intrinsic value that that dictates uh the performance in the short term. Most people think that that if the company does well, the security will do well.
If the company does poorly, the security will do poorly. But they miss the fact that there's a step in between. And that is investor reaction. How do people feel about the progress of the economy and the company? You see, so for example, you can have an announcement of an earnings increase and the stock goes down.
Why? Because people are disappointed. The the earnings were up 10%. They thought it was going to be up 20. So they feel that the company is underperforming. stock goes down. So that's an important uh lesson. The role of psychology and the ramification is that uh you must be conscious of the environment psychological environment when you are an investor.
So I said in one memo that in real life things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot. [clears throat] But in investors minds they go from flawless to hopeless and the swing of the pendulum is highly exaggerated. So when the pendulum swings positively and everybody feels good and is thrilled about what's going on and is optimistic about the future and excited,
usually security prices go too high and become dangerous. Mhm. And you if you can detect that, you might want to reduce your investments or move to safer investments. Then eventually the pendulum swings and now people are too depressed and too panicky and too pessimistic and they think that we're going to have bad times forever.
And when that happens, usually this the prices of investments collapse. That's a great time to buy. So in the short run, psychology is more important than company fundamentals. And u it it is not correct to say good events are coming by, bad events are coming sell. Rather market is too optimistic sell.
Market is too pessimistic buy. What matters is not the quality of the thing you're investing in, but whether the price is high or low relative to the intrinsic value. And it's from the fluctuations of price around the intrinsic value that that dict that dictates uh the performance in the short term.
Now, if you're a real long-term investor and if you're 25 years old and you say, "I'm going to hold this for 40 or 50 years," which is the right attitude in many cases, then you can ignore psychology swings because in the long run, if you hold your investments, your return will really depend be dependent on on the fundamental behavior of the company.
Uh Ben Graham who was Warren Buffett's teacher right said that in the long run the market is a weighing machine and in the short run it's a voting machine. In the short run uh the movement of price is determined by movements of popularity. In the long run movements of price are dependent on the performance of economies and companies.
what we call fundamentals. So, every investor has to figure out whether they're going to be short-term oriented and buy, sell, buy, sell, or long-term oriented and mostly hold. Uh, of course, you can be somewhere in between. You can not trade every day, which I argue terribly against, but you can make occasional changes in your portfolio when warranted, as I believe uh they are now.
A friend of mine wrote a book about investing. The title is simple but not easy. Mhm. The things we want to do are simple to describe. The investor wants to hold more of the things that will do well and less of the things that will do poorly. Very simple. Executing is not easy. It takes skill to to figure to know what will do well and what will do poorly.
And nobody should confuse themselves. And when I uh speak to you and to my other close associates, I always stress I don't want to make investing seem easy. I want people to understand how hard it is so that they don't try anything uh too too adventurous. Mhm. Um, I published a memo this summer called Taking the Temperature
and, uh, I talked about five market decisions that I made [clears throat] starting in 2000 and all five were correct. Sometimes it took a little while for them to be correct, but eventually they were all correct. And I describe how I did it. And I did it not based on data but based on my sense for the environment.
By the way, for example, uh Oak Tree and I turned negative in ' 056 uh because we were worried that the market was behaving in a rash manner, taking too many risks and that that when other people take risks, it makes the world a risky place for me. Now, shortly later, we had the uh global financial crisis
which was a problem with subprime mortgages and uh mortgage back securities. And you know that Meil Lynch, Bear Sterns, uh Lehman Brothers all disappeared. Why? It was it was a you know it was the worst environment I've ever seen. Um we managed to largely avoid it. Why? We didn't know anything about subprime mortgages,
but we knew that the world was a risky place. So that's why I say take the temperature of the environment, but not easy. At that time, I had been working for uh 40 years. I had a lot of experience. So I could recognize what was going on in the environment. Somebody with less experience really uh did not have the ability to do that.
Mhm. So I I look, investing is a great thing. Over a long period of time, investing will turn a little bit of money into a lot of money if you if you don't screw it up. But nobody should think that frequent correct uh uh market timing is is is easy.
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