저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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2025 예산안을 10점 만점(사실상 만점 이상)으로 평가하며 부정적 요소가 없다고 봄. 소득세 감면으로 생긴 여력은 소비로 흘러 FMCG·퀵커머스 등 소비주에 수혜가 예상되며, 자본지출(capex) 재원은 상대적으로 줄어 capex 테마의 자금 이동이 있을 것으로 판단. 정부 capex 집행액(11.2조 목표)은 실제 10.1조 수준에 그칠 가능성이 크다고 봄. 2월 연준(FOMC) 결과와 신용 사이클 회복이 시장 방향을 좌우할 것이라 언급. 방향성 자체는 단정하지 않고 기술적 반등 가능성 정도를 언급.
다듬은 글
sectors as well one by one Insurance Yash is also standing by and we'll bring him in but I think we have Ram Agarwal now joining us chairman and co-founder of M Financial Services Ru good to have you with us here good afternoon uh you know it's been it's been a couple of hours now budget uh I'm sure you your team has briefed you you've poured over all the important things what's the uh what's the sharp take at thisa according to you is it a how would you rate it if I were to rate it on rate it on 10 yeah 10 out of 10 for sure I if I could give 10 and a half also so it is definitely 100 out of 100 budget uh and uh first thing is there is no negative okay at least as far as I know there's no negative so which is a big positive second that whatever they said in uh economic survey everything has given uh it has found some space somewhere uh so uh so I mean now insurance is 100% and that shows the kind of uh uh intention to attract Capital into the country then they have also talked about global competency centers going to the tier 2 tier three cities that's a that's a very big revolution in India I mean it is after it GCC of GCC very very large so I don't know what all they have done yeah no Absol absolutely we we'll get to some of those things in a bit but from for our Market audience right what mangalam was talking about how much of this is this is this uh boost on personal income via personal income tax uh route enough to Spur meaningful growth in for listed companies and where would that show up in a more meaningful way according to you yeah so I think uh uh clearly I I I'm not in position to figure out when you get about a when your income level is about say 15 20 lakh or 24 lakhs and you get a benefit of about uh 70 80,000 rupees where does it go uh my sense is clearly there will be uh that that money will tend to go into the consumption and that's what Market is betting on so uh so I I would go by the market judgment that uh uh that consumption will uh particularly the fmcg kind of item or zato and all who sell uh uh small ticket items uh they would get benefit clearly uh you know Mr Agarwal afternoon this is Rema here now kex infrastructure was seen as a multi-year multi- deade kind of a story for India but given what we've seen over the last two years and the thrust now on consumption combined with the welfare schemes announced by the government in the last 12 months is there a shift now in the narrative from kex uh to consumption and therefore should you step back from the kex related themes as a multi-year story uh especially after the kind of returns they've generated yeah so I think as far as the economic allocation is concerned that remains same just that uh the market was sitting on the capex side and there is a shift in the in the location and uh in fact we were saying that econom is growing at 7% 7 half% but there's no feel on the consumption side anything of that kind of a growth so now that consumption which was completely am Miss there is some money which has been put in the hands of this middle class and uh because if you can't if you can't increase the income you have to reduce the tax so that people can uh buy some more and other way was to reduce the cost of the goods by reducing the GST and all so that that side they have not done so they have put some some more money in the hands of uh uh consumers and see real benefit is going to come from economic growth will they will they go from current 5 5 and a half% kind of a growth for last quarter will they again go back to more like 7% the real benefit will come from there and then from there allocation will happen no fair enough but what about the kex story uh is there a change would you continue to allocate the same amount to the kex infrastructure related stocks your defense Railways Etc as before yeah so we will uh of course there will be reallocation of the resources ultimately the fund man has only 100 bucks so out of 100 if I remove 10 10 to the consumption obviously the 10 will come from the capex side I mean if I if I say the capex and consumption there are only two buckets in that case if I increase the location to consumption by say 5 or 10 Rupees that will come immediately will come from the capex side though there is story has not changed for capex but story has improved for consumption that's how I look at it U how much do you think for a lot of the consumption companies is in the price because when we speak about Urban consumption you know there are names like zato swiggy Trent Etc they are trading at high multiples already it's the Staples which are actually trading at 10e means so in that case the incremental allocation to consumption itself does that go to Consumer discretionary Urban consumption which is already trading at elevated valuations or would you look at Staples as well because now that rural is improving and there is some push to Urban maybe that makes a better value bet yeah so I think as far as the stock selection is concerned it's also question of at what price you are buying and what you are buying so those things are about the you know stock picking but uh broadly if consumption is going to happen where is the actual value lying say I I would think that all the digital companies uh quick Commerce companies that's a good place to uh what do you call if if they get little more booster I would rather spend there than the 70 80 100p old companies you know who where the growth rates at best will be 10 15% whereas here it is like 70 80% so that's a matter of choice this is what I'm saying but somebody else will have some other view but clearly consumption companies if yesterday it was worth 100 today it is worth5 that's what Market is saying and another way of playing consumption is also via autos and you know some of the consumer finance companies would you bet any of bet on any of those as well or maybe you will look at just uh some of these new age consum focused technical Tech focused consumer companies itself no I mean see I don't manage money so uh of course managers will go deeper into the thing and they'll talk to the companies and just that little provision has come in the budget it doesn't mean much overnight I mean Monday lot of things will uh get equalized or things like that but I mean it's a it's indivual companies are very important so what and there is going to be lot of second tier effect like the entire tax benefit is not going to flow into just the consumption companies that in fact the the capital markets can benefit significantly because uh the lot of people who are not who are well off say about 25 lakhs and all they are they're not constrained by the income for the consumption the incremental a lak a lak rup comes to them that significant portion might come to the Capital Market so uh we we further examine right now we are just in the what do you call uh in the mood to react to what is given just that there's no negative and positive Tailwind is there for consumption Auto or things like that so that's how Market is sentimentally moving that side because there is no seller there there's only buyer on the capex side there is no buyer there are only sellers that's what is reflecting right now in the market all right the real rational movements will start happening next year and okay now absolutely uh you know you said that your fund managers will speak with companies and figure out exactly what is going on uh just you you may want to listen in Ram to this next conversation because uh it's a space where uh RDU if you're there if you heard the Dixon management any thoughts here yeah uh I think he was the guy to talk about Dixon I mean I think see the what is happening is Market is in too much of hurry so you saw the cut I mean it stock slummed and again came back all the way I think even markets the moment fiscal deficit number came to about 4.4 Market sold off and then slowly it is recovering to when the thinking is happening that this is actually positive thing rather than negative crowding out will not be there so I think by evening when uh everything is thought out uh I hope there's not much of between the lines there not too many negatives uh I I would think that market will recover uh and then it will go back to its own momentum in terms of whatever is happening globally now you know Ram G from Market perspective they had two ask one was that the RBI goes ahead and losen some liquidity and hopefully they've done some bit of it and next week we see a followup and the other one was the continu you have given this budget 10 10 100 100% Mar so to say but you don't you think that that little bit of a capital expenditure push is missing and that would have been actually the cherry on the cake uh see actually in capital see right now what has happened in actual they have not been able to execute what was the projected say it was projected for 2425 to be say 11.2 lakhs they are barely able to do 10 .1 and I'll be surprised if they could finish even 10.1 you know because uh most of the momentum has started only in December so you are left with only just about 2 and a half 3 months so my sense is that they may not be able to even complete the actual what they are talking about because it actually it has to be a cash accounting is that it you have to actually execute and pay so even if Government wants and orders are not given on time uh which is slipped because of the elections and all uh so the next year again to what do you call make a comeback and spend more than 10 15% would be very tough so they are very being very practical at about 11.2 lakh crores next year's execution and if they execute full 11.2 next year I think the momentum in capex would broadly be maintained and if by chance economy actually recovers to 7 7 half% they will have enough margin in terms of tax collection tax Bond should be very good and hence uh they can in the second round they can further allocate for the capex but I think the intent is very clear that they'll keep pushing the uh capex in various segments R just one quick thing I know you know don't manage money directly but you have a defense fund defense stocks are all selling off you know 4 5% yeah uh any any feedback you've got from your team yeah no I mean Prashant I mean I'm just in the studio itself okay and see those guys are also talking to them understanding it is very difficult to develop anything and in any case it's an excess Fund in the sense that it's an index fund so they have to allocate whatever is the index uh composition is saying so uh per se in passive funds you don't have any option but to allocate the way index is designed right uh to that extent uh active manager active manager doesn't have much role to play out there right uh we we request you to stay with us r g you know the interesting thing about next is North block is done Main Street is next r g 7th of Feb next Friday uh so what is your sense of it's very crucial not only the if you you get you get more measures you get a rate cut you get guidance maybe a little bit more having I mean we're presuming but if that would come how does that where does it place the market according to you see Market uh uh I mean nobody knows even I don't know uh what it will do in next uh 15 days 20 days because there's so many players I mean the foreigners are very large chunk for the short-term trade uh so I would don't know how they will react I mean there is a global allocations and things like that but uh as far as our economic performance is concerned I think the the demand uh aggregate demand is dependent on the credit flow so the credit flow has slowed down to more like 9 10% 10 10 and a half% that must go to 15 16% and when that will take some time so I'm sure the the economic activity will also take some time so it might take two quarters three quarters before that pickup happens but the turnaround in the credit cycle that year on year growth from 10% goes to 11 12 13 that's what I expect and that's what uh even the governor should be indicating uh in their next policy meetings and things like that uh so yeah uh near term is okay just let me put it another way and we'll ask S this as well and I think H with is also joining us so Monday morning we come back Rami and say we got this weekend tariff risk also right Trump's uh maybe we wake up to 10% 20% we don't know tariffs so is that will there be collateral damage in that sense or or what's your sense see Monday is Monday we are in Saturday today whatever was the activity today we have taken care of that Monday will its own balance sheet of activities whether Mr Trump whether FIS interest rates I mean then it takes over you know so today today's job is like which way the wind is blowing today wind is blowing towards consumption that's what has happened Market in next 1 hour should take a call is a bull he's given 10 on 10 anday by the way he's sounding like a full philosopher and saying Saturday here and by the way philosoph middle middle income group and that's what she has showered oh she has she has absolutely uh thank you very much for your time though appreciate it uh very much here and mangalam and Nel you guys always make the point about Friday and Saturdays and and Saturday and beverage stocks moved up
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