저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 인플레이션이 1980년대보다 더 심각하며 금리 인상 실패와 국채 매도 난관으로 상황이 더 악화될 것이라고 경고한다. 인플레이션 측정: 정부 CPI는 1980년대식 방식으로 측정하면 약 17% 수준이라고 주장하며 공식 8.5%는 축소·은폐된 수치라고 말한다. 정책 금리는 0.25%로, 1981년 20% 금리와 비교하면 인플레이션을 잡기에 턱없이 낮다고 본다. 인플레이션 전망: 인플레이션은 정점을 지나지 않았고 이제 막 시작된 단계라며 1971년과 유사하다고 본다. 금리는 인플레이션율보다 높아야 하지만 연준은 부채 부담 때문에 금리를 충분히 올리지 못한다고 주장한다. 연준과 국채: 연준의 양적완화는 사실상 부채 货币화이며 인플레이션의 본질이라고 설명한다. 양적긴축을 하려면 국채를 팔고 통화를 소각해야 하지만, 연준이 최대 구매자였던 만큼 누가 국채를 사겠느냐는 문제가 있다. 30년물 2.9%, 10년물 2.8% 등 금리가 매일 상승 중이며 시장 붕괴 후 연준이 방향을 바꿀 수 있다고 본다. 재정 전망: 재정적자는 2.5조 달러 이상으로 예상되며 정부가 지출을 대폭 줄이거나 중산층 세금을 크게 올려야 하지만 현실적으로 어렵다고 본다. 오바마케어 확대 등 지출 확대를 비판한다. 시나리오 및 리스크: 인플레이션 불황이나 하이퍼인플레이션으로 이어질 수 있으며, 극심한 금융위기(2008년보다 심각)가 올 수 있고 은행은 구제되지 않아 예금자 손실과 기업 도산이 발생할 것이라고 경고한다. 달러와 금: 달러는 전반적으로 약세로 전환될 것으로 보며 특히 루블 대비 약세를 예상한다. 푸틴 정부가 루블 가격 기준 금 매입 가격을 정한 만큼 러시아 은행의 금 매입이 늘어나 금 가격 상승 압력이 생기고, 이것이 달러 하락을 가속한다고 주장한다. 금리·환율 언급: 미국 금리 상승은 계속될 것으로 보며, 달러 약세 전망이 원/달러 환율의 하락(원화 강세) 방향 예측으로 해석될 수 있으나 영상에서 한국 환율을 직접 언급하진 않았다.
다듬은 글
this is the worst inflation in the history of the country before they fixed it right in the 1990s the cpi represented a fixed basket of goods so all they did is look at the price of goods and then and then look at how much the price changed and if we were measuring prices today the way we measured them in the 80s and the 70s because we want to go back and say oh this is the worst inflation since 1981.
well if we measured inflation today using the same cpi that they used in 1981 that's where we'd probably be at about 17 not eight and a half percent so this is the worst inflation in the history of the country if we measure it accurately but the government doesn't want to be honest about inflation it lies about inflation the way it lies about everything first of all they said it peaked a while ago and so we're higher than where it was when it supposedly peaked but it's as peaked as it was transitory and there's no reason to believe that it's peak think about where interest rates are even though the fed is talking about raising them they're still at 25 basis points one quarter of one percent the last time inflation was this high in 1981 interest rates were at 20 percent so we're not even close to one percent let alone 20 so inflation is not coming to an end like it was in 1981 it's just getting started this is like 1971 not like 1981.
we have a long way to go we're not even close to the peak of inflation well the interest rates should be above the inflation rate the real one but if even the fake one is we can't go above eight and a half people aren't lending money to lose on purpose you have to have a real return that exceeds the rate of inflation and you know we're not even close to that but the reason that the fed is not raising rates significantly to fight inflation is because it can't do it because we all have so much debt but the reason we have so much debt is because the fed could never raise rates in the past because every time they tried the economy would go into recession the markets would tank and then it'd have to go right back down to zero and do a bunch more quantitative easing so the economy gets more and more addicted to cheap money every time we get a bigger dose and now they're claiming that we can go cold turkey on the cheap money and and nothing's been going to happen i mean the economy has never been more vulnerable to a rise in interest rates than it is right now and we've never had more inflation than we do right now so higher interest rates have never been more necessary than they are right now but we can't get them without collapsing the economy so we won't get them we'll have massive inflation instead which will be do even more damage to the economy than a collapse and not only do they have to raise interest rates they have to dramatically reduce the money supply they have to reverse all this quantitative easing they have a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet it's very confusing because the whole term is a lie but what quantitative easing really is is debt monetization that's when a central bank the federal reserve prints up money and buys government bonds and so they they put new money into circulation they are inflating the money supply that is the very essence of inflation whenever the central bank says we're doing quantitative easing what you should actually think they're saying is we are causing inflation and that is what they did and the consequence of that is that we're all paying higher prices but if they want to get rid of the inflation they have to shrink that money supply so they have to do the opposite of quantitative easing quantitative tightening they've got to sell us government bonds and then take the money they get and destroy it so that the money supply goes down the problem is who is going to buy all these government bonds because up until recently the federal reserve was the biggest customer of the united states government because the federal reserve was the biggest buyer of treasuries helping to finance the deficit well if the fed goes from being the treasury's biggest customer to their biggest competitor if the federal reserve is competing with the government selling treasuries into the market who is going to buy all these treasuries and where is the money going to come from the answer is no one's going to buy them the price has to collapse that's why interest rates are rising every single day we just hit 2.9 percent today on a 30-year 2.8 percent on a tenure uh these are the highest rates have been since covid but they're going up every day because nobody wants to buy treasury so every day more and more treasuries get sold rates are going to keep going up until eventually the markets crash and then the fed is forced to uh pivot on its on its stance and go back to uh you know oh we can't hike rates so we can't shrink our balance sheet and that's when inflation can really kick into a higher gear as bad as it is now it's going to get much worse because remember if the fed is going to do quantitative tightening and sell treasury bonds the us government the biden administration is going to have to dramatically reduce government spending not just reduce the rate of increase but actually spend less than they did in the past and actually spend a lot less the budget deficit is projected to be two and a half trillion now it's probably going to be over three trillion if they're projecting two and a half but how are they going to sell two and a half trillion worth of treasuries when the federal reserve is also selling hundreds of billions worth of treasuries during the same year they can't do it so the federal government is going to have to dramatically cut spending so that don't doesn't have to borrow so much money or they have to have a massive tax hike on the middle class right now effective immediately maybe double income taxes on the middle class which i mean clearly they're not going to do they're not going to cut spending either because they'd have to cut social security medicare you know all the entitlements i mean they're just expanding obamacare we're broke the fed is raising rates and these idiots just voted to spend even more money on obamacare and we can't even afford the money we're already spending so it's never going to happen they're just going to keep on printing until they destroy the value of the dollar completely and as i said prices are going through the roof uh they have just started they've only just started going up and they're going much much higher i think in an inflationary depression i mean it could end in hyperinflation where the money has no value whatsoever and you can't buy anything no matter how many millions you have there's nothing that you could buy because no one will sell you something but if we're going to stop that from happening then we're going to have to suffer a severe collapse a financial crisis you know far greater than anything that we had in 2008 and nobody gets a bailout from anything no no banks get bailed out they have to fail and in fact when they fail the depositors are going to lose their money because there's no fdic money either because that would have had to come from the fed so depositors lose their money companies go out of business investors get wiped out jobs get destroyed um you know it's going to be a real mess in the end that's why they're waiting so long and kicking the can down the road for as many years as they have because the consequences are so horrible nobody wants to face them but every time we kick that can down the road we make those we make those horrible consequences much worse so since we've been doing it for so long you can only imagine just how horrific things are going to be in order to avoid hyperinflation which would be even more catastrophic and right now the dollar's been very strong against a lot of other currencies in particular the euro it's not wasn't just a ruble but i think that dollar strength is eventually going to reverse as well i think the dollar is going to come under a lot of pressure when the markets realize that the fed is bluffing about its ability to fight inflation uh and that when the markets you know figure that out uh and and the fed is ultimately forced to reverse because of the weakness and the economy in the markets i think the dollar is going to tank across the board including against the the ruble and now that putin has kind of fixed how much gold uh the central bank of russia is willing to buy priced in rubles if we see a very weak dollar in terms of rubles that will put a lot of upward pressure on the price of gold because a lot of russian banks will be buying gold that they can turn around and sell to the russian government at a profit and the strength in gold will also accelerate the decline of the dollar and and feed the whole process
Comments 0