저자: HowardMarks발언인용—채널진행자'FablesofFinance'추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스는 시장 타이밍은 불가능하며 고평가 시 전면 매도보다 방어적 태도로 조절하라고 말한다. 2024년 11월 경고 후 S&P500이 약 15% 상승한 사례를 들어 시장 이탈의 기회비용을 강조한다. 미국 주식 밸류에이션은 역사적으로 높은 편이지만 장기 투자 원칙은 유지해야 한다. 골드만삭스는 향후 10년 연 3% 수익률을 전망했다. 버핏도 일부만 매도했을 뿐 전면 매도하지 않았다. 바텀업 접근과 장기 분산투자를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
Investing is a good thing. Do it early, do it a lot, don't screw it up. If you had a great foresight, you could have said in 2019, I think there's going to be a pandemic. I'm going to get out. In 2021, you could have said, I think that Russia's going to invade Ukraine. I'm going to get out. You would have been right about the events, but it would have cost you a lot of money.
Not only do we never know what's going to happen, but we also don't know how the market's going to react. And so, to be dogmatic and to say, "It's high, I'm getting out." is a mistake. In November 2024, Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management and one of the most respected investors in the world, warned that trying to time the market is one of the biggest mistakes investors can make.
Now, a year later, the S&P 500 is up 15% from when Marks made his warning. Investors who sold in November 2024, believing markets were too high, thought they were geniuses when markets crashed this April. But now, they're sitting in cash having missed 15% gains. What seemed like prudent risk management has become a painful lesson in opportunity cost for many investors.
As a co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management overseeing $200 million in assets, Marks has successfully navigated five decades of market cycles, earning legendary status for his counterintuitive wisdom. If Marks was this accurate about why staying invested beats market timing, his insights about navigating high valuations are essential for every investor today.
You need to hear what he said. How do you get intrinsic value in a market that's overpriced? Well, you say it's overpriced. I would say it's high-priced. Overpriced is a judgment call. We would agree that US stock valuations are on the high side relative to history. That would tell me to be a little less aggressive than usual, but not necessarily to get out.
You know, getting out is really a big step. Most of the time in my 55 years in this business, it's been been a mistake. Either you get out and it goes up, or you get out and it goes down and you forget to get back in and it goes up without you. It's just a matter of calibrating, in my opinion, your behavior between aggressiveness and defensiveness.
When things are a little high, as they are, a little more defensive than usual. But this notion of risk on, risk off, in or out, buy or sell, that's too black and white. It's not fitting for the world we live in. Howard emphasizes that if you want to be a successful investor, you must understand the difference between something being high-priced and overpriced.
Many investors fall into the trap of seeing high prices and making rash decisions, either selling their holdings in a panic or missing out on buying opportunities. But Howard warns that this could be a costly mistake. Think of it this way. High-priced simply means that the current price is higher than its historical average or what we might normally expect.
It's like seeing shares of Apple trading at $270, a price that might seem high compared to its past performance. However, this high price could be justified by Apple's continued innovation, strong brand loyalty, and consistent profitability. Overpriced, however, is a judgment call. It means you believe the price is unjustifiably high compared to the actual value you're getting.
Think about Peloton in early 2021. Their stock price exploded as gyms closed and everyone rushed to buy home exercise equipment. But as the world reopened and competition increased, Peloton's growth stalled and its stock price plummeted. It's turned out that the initial hype had driven the price too far beyond what the company could realistically deliver.
So, how do you tell the difference between a stock that is simply high-priced and the one that's truly overpriced? Marks warns that selling a fundamentally sound company just because the price seems high could mean missing out on future gains. But holding onto the overpriced stock could result in significant losses.
Knowing when to sell and when not to sell is crucial for any investor. Marks has a surprising answer that might change the way you think about market timing. Let's take a look at what he has to say. We're seeing herd mentality. Moms and pops getting into everything that institutional investors are getting into.
And usually, historically, that's the time to get out. I was with you until you said out. Just remember this. And everybody, you know, as I said, we don't we're not market timers. We're not macro forecasters. You could have said, if you had a great foresight, you could have said in 2019, I think there's going to be a pandemic.
I'm going to get out. In 2021, you could have said, I think that Russia's going to invade Ukraine. I'm going to get out. You would have been right about the events, but it would have cost you a lot of money. Not only do we never know what's going to happen in the bigger world, but we also don't know how the market's going to react.
And so, to be dogmatic and to say, "It's high, I'm getting out." is a mistake. Warren Buffett, who always says it best, says, "Don't bet against the United States." Warren Buffett has taken money off the table, more than $300 million worth. Why? He says there's nothing to buy. Valuations are high. But what percentage, you know, people look and they say, "Well, Buffett sold some stock.
Does that mean we should get out?" What percentage of his stocks did he sell? Probably rather small. So, it's not a broad statement. Buffett's not selling all his stocks. And and neither I think should anybody else. Market timing, as Howard Marks wisely points out, is essentially impossible. Trying to time the market is like trying to catch a falling knife, dangerous and likely to leave you wounded.
Even if you correctly predict a major event, like a recession or geopolitical crisis, you can't know exactly how the market will react or when it will hit bottom. Sometimes bad news can even trigger a market surge and vice versa. Remember, the market is driven by millions of investors with different perspectives and motivations, making its movements inherently unpredictable.
Trying to time the market perfectly is a fool's errand, more likely to hurt your returns than help them. To Howard Marks, overreacting to short-term market fluctuations is a recipe for disaster. Think of a company like Apple. Its stock price fluctuates daily, sometimes wildly, driven by news, rumors, and investor sentiment.
But these short-term swings rarely reflect a true change in Apple's long-term value. Is Apple suddenly a worse company because its stock dipped 5% a day? Of course not. Don't get distracted by the daily noise and focus on the fundamentals. According to Marks, even Warren Buffett doesn't have all the answers.
Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time, yet even he doesn't try to time the market perfectly. Let's listen to more of what he has to say. The world is chaotic. The future is never clear. Some people spend their time trying to figure out the future and pricing it. I say it's unclear and we abstract from that.
We just try to look at individual companies and figure out which ones will grow, which one will repay their loans, and deal on that basis. We call that bottom-up, not top-down. If you want to become a successful investor, you absolutely need to understand the difference between bottom-up and top-down investing, the two primary ways investors choose which companies to buy.
Howard Marks is a bottom-up investor, while Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, exemplifies the top-down style. In essence, bottom-up investors focus on analyzing individual companies, while top-down investors prioritize macroeconomic trends to guide their decisions. While both approaches have their merits, both Marks and Warren Buffett favor bottom-up investing, also known as fundamental analysis.
Here's what Marks had to say about the challenges of market prediction. You talk about how you hate making calls, but Goldman came out to say that it sees 10% upside in the S&P from now through the end of 2025. Is Goldman right? 10. Well, that's pretty good, isn't it? On the other hand, Goldman, I think it's fair to say, put out a report three or four weeks ago in which they said that the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is high.
So, as opposed to 10% average return over the last century, they're projecting 3% for the next decade. That's rather cautionary. It's it's not get out, it's not sell, but it's moderate your expectation. On the other hand, 10% gain between now and the end of 25 would be quite nice. What this shows is that investing in the short run is very uncertain, and nobody should think they really know what's coming.
And most people should take an almost passive approach. The idea is it's good to invest. It's good to invest in the United States. It's good to invest over time. And it's bad to try to mastermind it in the short run. Point is, investing is a good thing. Do it early. Do it a lot. So that you can build a nest egg.
Don't screw it up. Howard Marks truly is a legendary investor. It's inspiring to hear someone with 55 years of experience speak with such passion and conviction about investing. From his early days at Citibank in the 1960s to co-founding Oaktree Capital Management, a firm now managing over $200 million in assets, Marks has seen it all.
He's made his share of mistakes along the way, but he's learned, adapted, and ultimately built a remarkable track record. Hopefully, you've gained valuable insights from his wisdom and feel more confident about your own investment journey. As Howard wisely reminds us, investing is a good thing. Do it early, do it a lot, so that you can build a nest egg, and don't screw it up.
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